Vaal, Tuesday 19 October

Race 4 what a stupid race. 1200 meters race
1st 800 meters thought my TV was in slo mo mode.
Jocks should be blasted

wrote:

R426.60 swinger, I wish the Sun met would pay that again.

1ST1 Eyes On Tiger
2ND6 Back To Basics
3RD15 Musical Kiss
4TH3 True Brit

WN 1 1.90
PL 1 1.20
PL 6 12.40
PL 15 14.40
SW 1-6 19.50
SW 1-15 27.40
SW 6-15 426.60
EX 1-6 77.10
TF 1-6-15 2532.10
QT 1-6-15-3 31332.00
DB 9x1 5.30
DB 9x11 5.30

That could be a record swinger dividend for a South African venue. Seen higher payouts though in Foreign jurisdictions covered by our Tote.

Sylvester wrote:

Race 4 what a stupid race. 1200 meters race
1st 800 meters thought my TV was in slo mo mode.
Jocks should be blasted

Was a mile, and i napped the winner so all good

OH SHIT i think i should quit while i am behind. Honestly thought a 1200 m race. oops sorry

Bob Brogan wrote:

Sylvester wrote:

Race 4 what a stupid race. 1200 meters race
1st 800 meters thought my TV was in slo mo mode.
Jocks should be blasted

Was a mile, and i napped the winner so all good

Bob remember a few years ago you used to get the horses that shortened straight from a bookies site and then it stopped.

1 Mufasa 1.11 1.00 0.83 0.67 0.50 0.40 0.46 0.56 0.63 0.67 0.72 0.83 0.87 0.91
This is the kind of games they play now.
Shorten the horse,probably with no money on it at all,in the morning to try make punters add it to their doubles and trebles.
But come race time they not scared to offer 100 or 150% more to try make the punter think they getting value now and take a straight bet.
They probably heard all along that the horse would probably need the run.

yoh..... that was mighty close..... HOPE MUZI got it :huh: :huh: :huh:

greeat stuff... now i can ONLY DREAM of the other yellow an black colours winning.. would close off a nice trixi..... BOLD JAZZ / VASEEM / I DREAM OF GENIE..

Can't believe VASEEM drifted to 3's ....... I got 21 / 10

durbs wrote:

Bob remember a few years ago you used to get the horses that shortened straight from a bookies site and then it stopped.

1 Mufasa 1.11 1.00 0.83 0.67 0.50 0.40 0.46 0.56 0.63 0.67 0.72 0.83 0.87 0.91
This is the kind of games they play now.
Shorten the horse,probably with no money on it at all,in the morning to try make punters add it to their doubles and trebles.
But come race time they not scared to offer 100 or 150% more to try make the punter think they getting value now and take a straight bet.
They probably heard all along that the horse would probably need the run.

Ever tried pricing up a race yourself, it's not difficult, and you will eliminate the false market moves. I price up to 120%, then study the card, don't look at the bookies betting, tends to influence your judgement. You will find the true value.

Always remember, it's just someone's opinion, then you can work out who's "trying to lead you astray" with the betting moves. I find betting very interesting in the broader scheme of things.

Fitness Bayern that's one thing we can't factor in.
We assume everything comes to the races to win but we don't really know the trainers plans or if the horse was working well or not.
Betting is usually the best guide,closer to race time, but that doesn't help the exotic punter.

ElvisisKing wrote:

greeat stuff... now i can ONLY DREAM of the other yellow an black colours winning.. would close off a nice trixi..... BOLD JAZZ / VASEEM / I DREAM OF GENIE..

Can't believe VASEEM drifted to 3's ....... I got 21 / 10

Well done Elvis

durbs wrote:

Fitness Bayern that's one thing we can't factor in.
We assume everything comes to the races to win but we don't really know the trainers plans or if the horse was working well or not.
Betting is usually the best guide,closer to race time, but that doesn't help the exotic punter.

That's where we go wrong. The horses that come back from breaks and win over the "incorrect" distances are few and far between. The two feature races at Kenilworth this Saturday will be prime examples of some horses making seasonal debuts, since turning 3. My advise would be to try and read the race - pace, lack of pace, draws, recent race fitness, etc. Always remember, horse racing is not an exact science, the trainers are also trying to establish "where a horse is" at this stage of their career and without having a go, they will never know where their charge fits into the pecking order.

I still think, try and study the form, price up yourself, and you may have a clearer picture of the betting market. Whenever there is a (very) short priced favourite, compare your betting to theirs, and see if it is warranted. Most times horses shorten because of the multiples that are "clicking" onto the next hottie. Conversely, if the first one loses, the second one drifts immediately. When this happens, punters think it's no good (anymore). More importantly, did the two hotties deserve to be so short in the ante post? Bookies love the herd mentality, that's where we as punters fall short.