Kenilworth, Saturday 4 December

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1 month 1 week ago - 1 month 1 week ago #830452 by bayern
Race (1)
Quest From Afar can’t win, must be being aimed at some race later in the season, especially since it hasn’t run since July, still a maiden after four runs, don’t believe it’s that good, and first run in the province, current price of 18/10 is ridiculous. Belle Rouge the one to be with. Watch the first timer La Vida go down, whilst on the drift, horses don’t know their price – they can’t read, I’m told.

Race (2)
Very difficult race, on times Bon Boyage looks to be the one to be with, but no good thing.

Race (3)
If allowed to set the pace, Captain’s Ransom will be a hard horse to reel in having had a recent run. The others may need the run and may also be aimed at races later in the season, not that they can’t win today, just think they won’t be cut in half to win, “bigger fish to braai”, it is the Cape after all.

Race (4)
Crome Yellow, one win and two places from three runs course and distance. Difficult to be confident on anything, going to trust van Niekerk’s judgment here, considering he could have ridden Anze Lazio.

Race (5)
Amanzintoti, nuff said.

Race (6)
Gimme Dat, back to sprinting, if there is a hot pace, can run them down. Wait for race time you should get bigger odds than 12.5/1, but don’t forget, horses can’t read.

Race (7)
Over the course and distance, then Rainbow Bridge is the one to row in with, never unplaced in 8 runs. Can’t wait to see the talking horse run, Captain Fontane. What I will say, if he wins off the rating against this lot, then he is the best horse in the country, do I think he will pull it off, nah.

Race (8)
Rio Querari, best sprinter in the country, especially on his home patch. Don’t let the break put you off, any Cape horse who after a two month rest can go to altitude and skate in, must be special. Come and bring (your money), but don’t forget to put and take.

Race (9)
If the pace is on, Steinbeck will run them down.

Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy
Last edit: 1 month 1 week ago by bayern.
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1 month 1 week ago #830460 by Mac
For me desert Miracle IS the right horse but shit not at that price. There are other good ones (Ananzintoti) and some who are showing massive promise (Chansonette, Mary Querol, She’s A Rainbow). I guess I will just savour watching the race without a punt.


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1 month 1 week ago #830461 by onyerway

One bet for the day, Amanzintoti (6/1), think about it.

I'm with you, at that price I can't go wrong but I'm certain that Amanzamtoti will be the best filly come the Durban season and will go close In the July

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1 month 1 week ago #830462 by Mossel
We will see who's the best Desert or Toti. Myself think Desert will roll Toti the horse is special any horse that can win it last 3 starts with over 20l must be special but come Saturday we will speak again you have been told

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1 month 1 week ago #830470 by Frodo
I think it is a guessing game (so the odds are ridiculous) - I would guess that given the winning margins that Desert Miracle trotted up by, would point to her being the right one; Amanzimtoti on straight form may look better than her (DM beat Kailene by 9.7 lengths where A beat Kailene by 9.25 lengths - but Kailene pulled up lame when beaten by A, so that form does not count for much imo)

I think the real value in the race could be Maria Querol - beat Amanzimtoti by more than 3 lengths giving her 2 kgs - and may have needed her last start when A turned the tables - certainly at current odds MQ looks tempting
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1 month 1 week ago - 1 month 1 week ago #830472 by Zain Nabi
Zain Nabi on topic Kenilworth, Saturday 4 December
Statistics shows that in the cape fillies guineas sires captain al, silvano and dynasty are the one's to beat. No sires with captain al's and slivano's this year and the only dynasty is desert miracle.

Took a treble:

Really Royal
Black Knap
Desert Miracle
Last edit: 1 month 1 week ago by Zain Nabi.
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1 month 1 week ago #830510 by PeterD
Strong winds and possibility of rain in the afternoon.
Race 1 Quest From Afar has good Jhb form but hasn’t run for a while. Charity Ball has been knocking on the door. Belle Rouge and Little Miss Pink have scope for improvement. A couple of well bred first timers make it complicated.
Race 2 I think that Surjay is the one to beat. Dangers are Bon Voyage, Tchaikovsky, Bluff on Bluff. Auld Mug and He Knows has scope for improvement.
Our boy I’m in Charge will improve on his debut effort but needs further.
Race 3. A small quality field, but a prep run for most. Captain’s Ransom should win with the benefit of the Diana Stakes run under the belt. She’s a Keeper fair sprint last time, and could be the main danger. Really Royal probably the fittest.
Race 4 We have Crimson King running and he is the horse to beat. Bayberry the main danger. Black Knap and Magnificent Seven are well in at the weights on best form.
Race 5 Desert Miracle is a banker if she has traveled well. Amanzimtoti has good CT form. Chansonette on the up and should be in the money. At this stage of their careers, quite a few have scope for improvement.
Race 6 Vernichey appeared to need it badly last time. At best is the one to beat.
Race 7 Rainbow Bridge, Jet Dark and Linebacker all running fresh and this is their prep for the QP and Met, so it all depends on which one is fittest. Seeking the Stars gets a couple of kilos and ran a cracker on seasonal debut, so must not be ignored. I am very sceptical that Cpt Fontane is this class.
Race 8 Rio Querari is the one to beat, but runs fresh. Kasimir is getting on in years but is always capable. Real Gone Kid is on the up and could surprise.
Race 9 Three significant scratchings, but still a competitive maiden. All of Take to War, Steinbeck, Millahue, Hinckley and Clap of Thunder are capable. I have a preference for Clap Of Thunder to beat Steinbeck.
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1 month 1 week ago #830516 by Dave Scott
Dave Scott on topic Kenilworth, Saturday 4 December
Thank you Peter we are at the mercy of bad weather these days 🤞🙏

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1 month 1 week ago #830519 by bayern
I have based my decision on their respective times over 1400m, and it will be Desert Miracle's first time in the province, and around a left handed track. Raiding comes with difficulties, not all the time though, connections hope their charge traveled well, and for the sport, so does everyone else.

Both their last runs and times are key for me. Desert Miracle's time over 1400m was 86.49 on good ground against the colts, admittedly. Amanzimtoti's time was 87.64, but on soft ground. Believe it or not, her time was faster than the Cape Classic winner, Trip Of Fortune, by 1.68sec, and 2.05 faster than Zapatillas, the second placed finisher, and the colts carried 59.0kg, whereas the fillies carried 60.0kg.

Times at altitude are very difficult to reproduce at sea level, so before you point out Desert Miracle's winning time at Greyville being 84.81, that was when she was a juvenile, she hasn't reproduced that sort of time as an older stronger horse - she may still win today and by many, just feel there is not much between the two on adjusted times. So as a few have alluded to value in the market, also can't understand the disparity in the betting.

Local lass, local patch;)

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1 month 1 week ago #830522 by bayern

Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy

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1 month 1 week ago #830524 by Dave Scott
Dave Scott on topic Kenilworth, Saturday 4 December
Was always popular with the punters as he speaks the same language 👍

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1 month 1 week ago #830525 by Mac
“Go on my baby, teach Captain’s Ransom a lesson or two”. Mac says to She’s A Keeper.


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