the voice of the South African punter

Monday, 23 April 2018 16:55

Champions League, Semi-Final 1st Leg Preview

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The Champions League Semi-Final 1st Legs take place this week and our man takes a look at them from a betting angle.

We are down to the final four teams in the Champions League and Real Madrid are currently trading at 19/10 favourites with Bayern Munich and Liverpool at 22/10 and AS Roma the 9/1 underdogs. –click here for outright betting.

TUESDAY

Tuesday night sees Liverpool at home to Roma and the home side are firm favourites at 11/20 to win the game.  They have come through two potentially testing ties against Porto 5-0 on aggregate and Manchester City 5-1 on aggregate and a disappointing 2-2 draw at West Brom in the League on the weekend could probably be ignored as they would have had an eye on this fixture.  Liverpool have won 3 and drawn 2 of their 5 Champions League home matches this season.  Roma caused one of the upsets of the Champions League in recent times when they came from a 4-1 deficit to Barcelona to beat them on away goals, thanks to a 3-0 home win in the second leg.  They had previously seen off Shakhtar Donetsk, also on the away goals rule and in 5 away games this season they have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3.  These sides have met in a number of friendlies over the years with Roma generally getting the better of Liverpool but I don’t think we should be reading too much into those results.  I fancy Liverpool to get things off to a good start and with their free scoring style and Roma’s relatively poor record I am going for them on the handicap of (-1).

WEDNESDAY

Wednesday night sees two of the most successful European clubs of recent seasons come up against each other in Germany.  Bayern Munich beat Sevilla 2-1 on aggregate in the quarter-finals after a 0-0 draw at home in the 2nd leg.  They had previously trampled all over Besiktas, beating them 8-1 in the last 16 and they have won 4 of their 5 home matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 3 goals or more in all 4 of those victories.  Real Madrid survived a late scare to beat Juventus 4-3 on aggregate in the quarter-finals.  They looked to have secured their spot in the last 4 with a 3-0 away win but then dramatically went 3-0 down at home before the late Ronaldo penalty ensured they progressed.  They had previously seen off big spending PSG 5-2 on aggregate in the last 16 and their away record is very strong this season with 4 wins and a loss in 5 starts, that loss coming at Spurs.  Real Madrid beat Bayern Munich at this stage of the Tournament last season, eventually winning in extra time of the 2nd leg after the teams were deadlocked after the two matches.  For me Real Madrid are worthy favourites of this Tournament especially if you look at the tough route they have followed to get this far.  I am not going to get involved in this game but will instead go for a bet on Real Madrid to win the Tournament at what I think is a very fair price.

Suggested bets:

Liverpool v Roma – click here to bet

Handicap, Liverpool (-1) at 5/4

Bayern Munich v Real Madrid – click here to bet on the match

Real Madrid to win the Tournament at 19/10 

 

Prices correct at time of posting but are subject to change

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