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TOPIC: Turffontein 12 August 2017

Turffontein 12 August 2017 11 Aug 2017 15:01 #684767

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Race 2: Varsity Princess think this youngster can ride a bit and if saving something for the finish , should go start to finish here @ 7/2
Race 5: Knysna Rose should put this lot away cozily @ 16/10
Fire the double :woohoo: :woohoo:
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Turffontein 12 August 2017 11 Aug 2017 18:24 #684804

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Swift Sarah
I'm sure she wasn't suited to the inside 1200m of her last run
She has won five times but appears to have issues

She couldn't have been herself last cd run
www.formgrids.com/subscriber/fgRaceResul...65,ZA&hs=SWIFT+SARAH
but

Penny Serenade to Samarra
www.formgrids.com/subscriber/fgRaceResultGrid.aspx?
t=pst&rn=2017-06TN1154,ZA&hs=PENNY+SERENADE

Samarra to Shatoosh
www.formgrids.com/subscriber/fgRaceResultGrid.aspx?rn=2017-
04TN921,ZA&hs=SAMARRA

Biblical Susan
www.formgrids.com/subscriber/fgRaceResul...R1254,ZA&hs=SHATOOSH

For me her only danger is stablemate Myfunnyvalentine whos placed in graded races and is well suited to tomorrows cd but she's been rested for over six months
Last Edit: 11 Aug 2017 18:37 by Banele21.
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Turffontein 12 August 2017 11 Aug 2017 19:07 #684812

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I think the Antonius Pius filly deserves a full go in the first (places)
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Turffontein 12 August 2017 11 Aug 2017 19:12 #684814

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Reading the posts thus far :-

@ CP, I would be wary of having a go on an apprentice race, and a handicap to boot. When you look back at a Grooms race and an Apprentice race, I'm prepared to say the Grooms races throw up truer results than the Apprentice races, reason being (for me), there is not much difference in the weights carried. A look at R2, there is a 13.0kg swing between top and bottom weight, not a race to punt on or put in your multiples. Gun to the head, Celtic Lady.

@ Banele21, we have over the seasons seen Tarry bring horses back from breaks and win. Remember a few seasons ago, he stepped out one of his middle distance horses, and it won a 1200m race returning from a break, Gavin Larena may have ridden it, I'm open to correction on this though. I wouldn't be surprised if Myfunnyvalentine wins off that weight, albeit she has bigger fish to fry. Most probably start shorter than the current 9/2.

I fancy the double (R4) Pure Blond X (R5) Jet Start

Whilst Pure Blond is rising steeply in class, the merit rating of Will Pays (105), Captain Aldo (103) and Finchatton (99) have been achieved over further ground and not over sprints. Pure Blond could out-pace the field early in the race and could hold on, or so I'm hoping. There has been some support for Pure Blond which is encouraging.

Jet Start, another purely at the weights, could be very competitive. Looks the likely improver with Sylvan On Fire the danger for me, may need the run especially jumping from stall gate 8/8.

Hopefully the results are a lot more punter friendly, starting tomorrow.
Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy
Last Edit: 11 Aug 2017 20:27 by bayern.
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Turffontein 12 August 2017 11 Aug 2017 20:31 #684821

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R1 Beautiful Emmilee / Gunther Wrogemann ew
Last Edit: 11 Aug 2017 20:36 by mydada.
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Turffontein 12 August 2017 12 Aug 2017 08:15 #684839

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GM All, Thought I would share my work for the day - seeing that most of the sprints are touch and go. rerun them 10 times and get ten different results.

Race 1: Beautiful Emmilee looks the benchmark. Serendipity could improve with the trip, and the debutant could pop up in a moderate field.

Race 2: Lakahal and Celtic lady set the form, giving Celtic Lady the slight edge. Dangers would be from Varsity Princess and Analyse That. A race were they will take turns at beating one another on any given day.

Race 3: Another sprint where each has taken turns at beating the other. Depending which one get's the lead, and how hard it has to fight for the lead. There isn't much between Shivering Sea and Spring Wonder - I give Shivering Sea the edge at this trip, that 3.7Length beating of Spring Wonder is true - if the horse doesn't meet with problems - was beaten by Spring Wonder last when reporting respiratory noise. On top of that - on any given day, one of the others could put their best foot forward, MyFunnyValentine makes some appeal too.

Race 4: On pure ability i am going with Ronnie Rocket, Will Pays to apply the pressure. Obviously allow the market to guide. Pure Blonde and Chili-Con Carne worth looking at.

Race 5: Very tricky race , I am making Knysna Rose and Charter Jet the benchmarks, Dangers in the form of Sylvan on fire and Jet Start.

Race 6: I am going with Save The Rhino from Stonehenge

Race 8: Right on the thin line between mediocrity and mediocre, but if we must I will make this between Jewel In My Crown, from Sussex and Casino. As always in such poor races - watch the market.

Race 9: Another dismal affair. I am benchmarking around Graf Spee, from Ali Bon Dubai - with the surprise possibly coming from Money Matters.

In all a day for the exotic players it seems, and I won't be wagering unless there is some definite market angle. After Checking the market:

1. Serendipity
2. Varsity Princess
3. Shivering Sea
4. Ronnie Rocket
5. Sylvan on fire
6. Save The Rhino
8. Jewel In My crown
9. Money Matters.

In no way am I offering the above as tips :( I expect any amount of muddled results today.
Last Edit: 12 Aug 2017 11:35 by Adams.
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Turffontein 12 August 2017 12 Aug 2017 09:05 #684847

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Pure Blond x Bondi Blu
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Turffontein 12 August 2017 12 Aug 2017 09:16 #684851

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Turffontein 12 August 2017 12 Aug 2017 10:10 #684852

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I reckon spooks will be a plenty today.
Lucky double serendipity n dalley.
I really like money matters today ... It will take a power of beating.
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Turffontein 12 August 2017 12 Aug 2017 10:46 #684855

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taken a bipot onluy looking foward to seeing delpech riding in the uk B)

bipot R24

1 / 1, 7 - 8 / 2, 5 / 1, 4 / 5 - 6 / 1
The best horse doesn't always win the race.
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Turffontein 12 August 2017 12 Aug 2017 11:19 #684862

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R1 SERENDIPITY WIN only evens
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Turffontein 12 August 2017 12 Aug 2017 11:31 #684867

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Bondiblu has shown very strongly up to 1800m, and at that trip i would rate her on a par with Happy Pills and Stonehenge. While she hasn't been that impressive over further, most that handle 1800m well -will stay much further and she is likely to stamp her credentials at this trip today. Dalley has been impressive at the Vaal - I fancy she will find the turfontein trip a lot more testing though, likely to give a good account of herself. tobesuretobesure should relish this trip and is the one likely to apply pressure.

I was a little confused with Cosmo Russe - obviously has some ability, but there is hardly any hint anywhere in her ancestry that would make her favourite for this trip.

Completely the opposite can be said of Third Dan , since she is related to Tendre, and that one just looked smart winning at this sort of distance - so she should keep her stablemate honest?
Last Edit: 12 Aug 2017 11:32 by Adams.
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Turffontein 12 August 2017 12 Aug 2017 11:46 #684868

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Adams wrote:
GM All, Thought I would share my work for the day - seeing that most of the sprints are touch and go. rerun them 10 times and get ten different results.

Race 1: Beautiful Emmilee looks the benchmark. Serendipity could improve with the trip, and the debutant could pop up in a moderate field.

Race 2: Lakahal and Celtic lady set the form, giving Celtic Lady the slight edge. Dangers would be from Varsity Princess and Analyse That. A race were they will take turns at beating one another on any given day.

Race 3: Another sprint where each has taken turns at beating the other. Depending which one get's the lead, and how hard it has to fight for the lead. There isn't much between Shivering Sea and Spring Wonder - I give Shivering Sea the edge at this trip, that 3.7Length beating of Spring Wonder is true - if the horse doesn't meet with problems - was beaten by Spring Wonder last when reporting respiratory noise. On top of that - on any given day, one of the others could put their best foot forward, MyFunnyValentine makes some appeal too.

Race 4: On pure ability i am going with Ronnie Rocket, Will Pays to apply the pressure. Obviously allow the market to guide. Pure Blonde and Chili-Con Carne worth looking at.

Race 5: Very tricky race , I am making Knysna Rose and Charter Jet the benchmarks, Dangers in the form of Sylvan on fire and Jet Start.

Race 6: I am going with Save The Rhino from Stonehenge

Race 8: Right on the thin line between mediocrity and mediocre, but if we must I will make this between Jewel In My Crown, from Sussex and Casino. As always in such poor races - watch the market.

Race 9: Another dismal affair. I am benchmarking around Graf Spee, from Ali Bon Dubai - with the surprise possibly coming from Money Matters.

In all a day for the exotic players it seems, and I won't be wagering unless there is some definite market angle. After Checking the market:

1. Serendipity
2. Varsity Princess
3. Shivering Sea
4. Ronnie Rocket
5. Sylvan on fire
6. Save The Rhino
8. Jewel In My crown
9. Money Matters.

In no way am I offering the above as tips :( I expect any amount of muddled results today.

I'm liking your posts day by day sir, thank you :)
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Turffontein 12 August 2017 12 Aug 2017 11:51 #684870

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Thank you sir, just trying to make sense of the roulette wheel like everyone else, some really valuable input and information from the members of this forum I see ----
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Turffontein 12 August 2017 12 Aug 2017 11:58 #684872

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MYFUNNYVALENTINE should win if ready
ELUSIVE STRIKE - my best e/w - Faced far stronger in minor features and will enjoy the extra- exacta float field
SILKEN go close
MUNTU - include in quartets and exotics - will be a better horse when the rains come and will also be more effective over 2000m plus but he does run on
SAVE THE RHINO
THE MORE YOU STUDY FORM THE LUCKIER YOU GET
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Turffontein 12 August 2017 12 Aug 2017 12:08 #684874

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Very clear if one looks hard enough, i think the connections of Greek Honey believe this horse can win a weak race like this at 1400m. look past it's last three races and find a close up run to Cinnamon Slew at 1400m -- There's nothing in the formbook , but there is action in the market? Really enough to keep me oout of this race.
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Turffontein 12 August 2017 12 Aug 2017 12:11 #684876

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that was on very soft going
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Turffontein 12 August 2017 12 Aug 2017 12:25 #684877

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Thank you --- we always looking for ghosts, That Stable had some success recently - does seem to pop up in the wet, was just noticing the market support? Race still too shaky for me.
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Turffontein 12 August 2017 12 Aug 2017 12:32 #684879

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Race 1 Serendipity 13/10 Win
Race 2 Burgundy Rose 7/1 eachway
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Turffontein 12 August 2017 12 Aug 2017 12:33 #684880

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Welcome Adams - some food for thought. My take on the card ....

In general sort of a mixed bag - smaller fields probably means smaller dividends, even if most favorites get rolled ....

R2: Agree with most that depending on the day, these could beat each other at regular intervals .... first choice has to be the lightly raced Varsity Princess, who has most held held and possible improvement to come .... stable mate Burgundy Rose looks the main danger from Lakahal and Celtic Lady

R3: Competitive .... Secret Star on her last run would take a lot of beating, but Biblical Susan could make her run all the way; Myfunnnyvalentine at best should also be right there - none of the others without a chance though

R4: One probably needs to take a stand early with Pure Blonde, as most of the others look better over 1400 - Ronnie Rocket possible spook at the weights

R5: Sylvan on Fire finished in front of Knysna Rose in March and now gets weight - so clear first choice for me; Jet Start on the up and may be good enough to get a blow in here receiving lots of weight; possible 'upset' is Seeking Gold who has come down a lot in the ratings - only other that could upset imo Elusive Strike who tries blinkers but suffers from breathing issues - the others can start now imo

R6: Toughest race on the card - all 6 needs to go in

R7: Dalley the proverbial penalty kick - holds the others at the weights - the exception could be Silken on her runs in Feb and March

R8: Weak lot - so the 3 yr old Sussex with slight improvement could be good enough here; Vul Indlela comfortably holds most of the older fillies, but the 1800 looks a touch sharp of her best trip - Rendezvous obviously needs improvement, but after a break can still make improvement
- only her 3rd start after all

R9: Money Matters finished strongly last time and is my first choice from Harrington Port who finished next to MM last time; ALi Bon Dubai has had a few chances and so looks moderate; the betting support for the Soma trained King Javeline could prove significant

Enjoy B)
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