The Vodacom Durban July Log as at 31 May 2021

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1 week 2 days ago #819498 by Cochrane

Dave Scott wrote:

Pilot officer wrote: people always complain the Met is a small field every year but its quality horses.The July from abt 11 to last horse on log are horses that will just get in the way of the main horses. 20 horse field 9 or 10 horses are no hopers.


Would just mention the first and second in yesterday's Derby were 16/1 and 50/1 and the second and third in the Oaks were 50/1 and 20/1 .


Why was the winner of the Oaks and Derby not the favourites?

Iam presuming AoB and Godolphin would only run horses that could win with there being so many unknown factors.

The July is a premium race, no hoppers like Atyaab should not be given a chance to cost punters!

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1 week 2 days ago #819509 by TNaicker
The July is a handicap...there should be no "no hoppers" (hopers??)...

Life's too short to have a long face...so, cherish the good, learn from the bad and forget the rest...

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1 week 2 days ago #819510 by Cochrane

TNaicker wrote: The July is a handicap...there should be no "no hoppers" (hopers??)...


Please go read and learn more about the subject, also there are many people on this forum that can teach you.

The July is a handicap with conditions, so there will be horses “out at the weights’ and others that have achieved their current ratings at different distances.

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1 week 2 days ago #819513 by TNaicker

Cochrane wrote:

TNaicker wrote: The July is a handicap...there should be no "no hoppers" (hopers??)...


Please go read and learn more about the subject, also there are many people on this forum that can teach you.

The July is a handicap with conditions, so there will be horses “out at the weights’ and others that have achieved their current ratings at different distances.


Fully aware that the July is a handicap and there are all sorts of constraints placed on the handicappers such that a few don't have their true ratings...

So, the end result should be a 8-10 horse race with all those under-sufferance eliminated?...no space for improvement on the day, luck in running, enterprising jockeyship - all things that throw out current ratings and can allow / enable an under-sufferance horse to win ?

All the best with your selection...my pointer for a decent place bet is the Champions Challenge race...any horse from that race that gets in is normally at a good price and runs well...

Life's too short to have a long face...so, cherish the good, learn from the bad and forget the rest...

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1 week 2 days ago #819515 by Frodo
Interesting views - for me I believe the July is traditionally a big field with a spread of weights - stand to be corrected, but did Jollify not dead-heat with the legend Sea Cottage - and if I remember correctly Jollify was carrying something like 44 kgs and Sea Cottage 60 :unsure: My point is that, as per the weight limits set today, many horses will come in under sufferance, but I don't believe they should be taken out just because they run under sufferance - if their connections pay the acceptance fee, imo thet should be given the chance. There are other races for purists like the MET and QP where the best of the best compete at set weights, but the July is the original "People's Race" and should remain so - imo

As to the race itself, there is also various opinions on how it will play out, some believe the 3-yr olds will be good enough, others that Got The Greenlight is thrown in - and that's good - it stimulates conversation and adds interest. For me, I would not be totally shocked if none of the 3yr-olds make the Quartet :ohmy:

And at the risk of stealing TNaicker's thunder .... I think I know which horse he is referring to, for me I think the 2200m is a bridge too far - especially as the Snaith machine will probably ensure a decent pace again :unsure:

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1 week 2 days ago #819517 by Press

TNaicker wrote:

Cochrane wrote:

TNaicker wrote: The July is a handicap...there should be no "no hoppers" (hopers??)...


Please go read and learn more about the subject, also there are many people on this forum that can teach you.

The July is a handicap with conditions, so there will be horses “out at the weights’ and others that have achieved their current ratings at different distances.


Fully aware that the July is a handicap and there are all sorts of constraints placed on the handicappers such that a few don't have their true ratings...

So, the end result should be a 8-10 horse race with all those under-sufferance eliminated?...no space for improvement on the day, luck in running, enterprising jockeyship - all things that throw out current ratings and can allow / enable an under-sufferance horse to win ?

All the best with your selection...my pointer for a decent place bet is the Champions Challenge race...any horse from that race that gets in is normally at a good price and runs well...


I agree. I have seen many NO-Hopes win graded races in the past and this is no different. You have those that bet on the science, and those that bet on balanced probability and chance. I find the value in the latter. B)

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1 week 2 days ago #819518 by Sylvester
right now i battle to fill the race with 20 horses. I have 11 as locked in

She's A Keeper
Matterhorn
Cirillo
Kommetdieding
War Of Athena
Rascallion
Linebacker
Got The Greenlight
Do It Again
Belgarion
Rainbow Bridge

then these three runners as next best

Shah Akbar
Sovereign Spirit
Shango

i then have these 6 all cup trial critical i guess

Tristful
African Night Sky
Trip To Africa
Atyaab (AUS) (not cup trial)
Nexus
Doublemint

and these as no @hoppers@. few of them hold cup trial entries so may change after the week end.

Super Silvano
Seehaam
Pack Leader
Azores
Tree Tumbo
Flying Carpet
Divine Odyssey
Silver Host
Running Brave
ExpressFromTheUS

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1 week 2 days ago #819521 by Dave Scott
I am hoping I am wrong but now getting that niggle of a small ante post disappoint for a few punters.

GTGL/WOA/MUZI

Where the bookies are slightly dropping GTGL and increasing WOA

Was hoping Matchett was thinking Craig might be the answer to his call after Sat?

Fingers crossed

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1 week 2 days ago #819522 by Mac



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

"Lot 226, 2016 NYS, Diamondveld, R1.5m"

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1 week 2 days ago #819526 by Frodo

Sylvester wrote: right now i battle to fill the race with 20 horses. I have 11 as locked in

She's A Keeper
Matterhorn
Cirillo
Kommetdieding
War Of Athena
Rascallion
Linebacker
Got The Greenlight
Do It Again
Belgarion
Rainbow Bridge

then these three runners as next best

Shah Akbar
Sovereign Spirit
Shango

i then have these 6 all cup trial critical i guess

Tristful
African Night Sky
Trip To Africa
Atyaab (AUS) (not cup trial)
Nexus
Doublemint

and these as no @hoppers@. few of them hold cup trial entries so may change after the week end.

Super Silvano
Seehaam
Pack Leader
Azores
Tree Tumbo
Flying Carpet
Divine Odyssey
Silver Host
Running Brave
ExpressFromTheUS


Mostly agree - but I do think Sovereign Spirit is a 'lock-in' and Matterhorn a 'maybe'
The following user(s) said Thank You: Sylvester

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1 week 2 days ago #819528 by TNaicker
@Frodo...many thanks for reply above...just checked and saw that most of the Champion's Challenge field not running in the July...just Got The Greenlight and Cirillo and maybe Johnny Hero (which did win yesterday but well under sufferance if making the July field - did help me win the Jackpot yesterday :-)))

Yes, 2200m is a bit far for Cirillo but has popped up to place at the highest level (at set weights over shorter) so good value for 4 places if anything more than 7/1...better than current price on any of the top 4 to win...very good horses can have the odd great day when things go their way...

Life's too short to have a long face...so, cherish the good, learn from the bad and forget the rest...

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1 week 2 days ago #819530 by the duke
Tarry stable too talented to discount on any day...... they know how win the big events.
Cirillo.... if allowed to dictate will hold on for minor money... with a strong tailwind he can go even closer......

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1 week 2 days ago #819534 by Thangaveloo
Howzit guys... trust you all are well. The July handicap seems a stone throw away.

'EXPRESSFROMTHEUS' 🇺🇸 is the outsider for top six places.

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1 week 2 days ago #819538 by Cochrane

the duke wrote: Tarry stable too talented to discount on any day...... they know how win the big events.
Cirillo.... if allowed to dictate will hold on for minor money... with a strong tailwind he can go even closer......


I could not find a natural pace setter and was thinking that Shah Akbar or Cirillo could do the job.

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1 week 1 day ago - 1 week 1 day ago #819558 by Thangaveloo
Hope you all are well. I have studied the previous years July handicap ratings and devised these weights. The draw system was pretty simple as top weight gets draw one to eighteen descending:

( 1 ) - RAINBOW BRIDGE - 60KG
( 2 ) - BELGARION - 59KG
( 3 ) - DO IT AGAIN (6G) - 59.5KG
( 4 ) - RUNNING BRAVE - 59.5KG
( 5 ) - CIRILLO - 58KG
( 6 ) - DOUBLEMINT -  58KG
( 7 ) - SOVEREIGN SPIRIT - 57.5KG
( 8 ) - EXPRESSFROMTHEUS -57KG
( 9 ) - GOT THE GREENLIGHT - 56KG
( 10 ) - LINEBACKER - 55KG
( 11 ) - WAR OF ATHENA - 54.5KG
( 12 ) - NEXUS -54KG
( 13 ) - RASCALLION - 54KG
( 14 ) - SHAH AKBAR - 54KG
( 15 ) - KOMMETDIEDING - 53.5KG
( 16 ) - SHE'S A KEEPER - 53KG
( 17 ) - MATTERHORN - 52KG
( 18 ) - TRIP TO AFRICA - 52KG
Last edit: 1 week 1 day ago by Thangaveloo.

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1 week 1 day ago #819571 by Frodo

Thangaveloo wrote: Hope you all are well. I have studied the previous years July handicap ratings and devised these weights. The draw system was pretty simple as top weight gets draw one to eighteen descending:

( 1 ) - RAINBOW BRIDGE - 60KG
( 2 ) - BELGARION - 59KG
( 3 ) - DO IT AGAIN (6G) - 59.5KG
( 4 ) - RUNNING BRAVE - 59.5KG
( 5 ) - CIRILLO - 58KG
( 6 ) - DOUBLEMINT -  58KG
( 7 ) - SOVEREIGN SPIRIT - 57.5KG
( 8 ) - EXPRESSFROMTHEUS -57KG
( 9 ) - GOT THE GREENLIGHT - 56KG
( 10 ) - LINEBACKER - 55KG
( 11 ) - WAR OF ATHENA - 54.5KG
( 12 ) - NEXUS -54KG
( 13 ) - RASCALLION - 54KG
( 14 ) - SHAH AKBAR - 54KG
( 15 ) - KOMMETDIEDING - 53.5KG
( 16 ) - SHE'S A KEEPER - 53KG
( 17 ) - MATTERHORN - 52KG
( 18 ) - TRIP TO AFRICA - 52KG


I'm sorry, I don't follow - where do you get these weights from - are you saying that this should be the weights based as you 'devised' ?

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1 week 1 day ago #819572 by Thangaveloo

Frodo wrote:

Thangaveloo wrote: Hope you all are well. I have studied the previous years July handicap ratings and devised these weights. The draw system was pretty simple as top weight gets draw one to eighteen descending:

( 1 ) - RAINBOW BRIDGE - 60KG
( 2 ) - BELGARION - 59KG
( 3 ) - DO IT AGAIN (6G) - 59.5KG
( 4 ) - RUNNING BRAVE - 59.5KG
( 5 ) - CIRILLO - 58KG
( 6 ) - DOUBLEMINT -  58KG
( 7 ) - SOVEREIGN SPIRIT - 57.5KG
( 8 ) - EXPRESSFROMTHEUS -57KG
( 9 ) - GOT THE GREENLIGHT - 56KG
( 10 ) - LINEBACKER - 55KG
( 11 ) - WAR OF ATHENA - 54.5KG
( 12 ) - NEXUS -54KG
( 13 ) - RASCALLION - 54KG
( 14 ) - SHAH AKBAR - 54KG
( 15 ) - KOMMETDIEDING - 53.5KG
( 16 ) - SHE'S A KEEPER - 53KG
( 17 ) - MATTERHORN - 52KG
( 18 ) - TRIP TO AFRICA - 52KG


I'm sorry, I don't follow - where do you get these weights from - are you saying that this should be the weights based as you 'devised' ?


Frodo these are possible weights what I have thought.

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1 week 1 day ago #819576 by Frodo

Thangaveloo wrote:

Frodo wrote:

Thangaveloo wrote: Hope you all are well. I have studied the previous years July handicap ratings and devised these weights. The draw system was pretty simple as top weight gets draw one to eighteen descending:

( 1 ) - RAINBOW BRIDGE - 60KG
( 2 ) - BELGARION - 59KG
( 3 ) - DO IT AGAIN (6G) - 59.5KG
( 4 ) - RUNNING BRAVE - 59.5KG
( 5 ) - CIRILLO - 58KG
( 6 ) - DOUBLEMINT -  58KG
( 7 ) - SOVEREIGN SPIRIT - 57.5KG
( 8 ) - EXPRESSFROMTHEUS -57KG
( 9 ) - GOT THE GREENLIGHT - 56KG
( 10 ) - LINEBACKER - 55KG
( 11 ) - WAR OF ATHENA - 54.5KG
( 12 ) - NEXUS -54KG
( 13 ) - RASCALLION - 54KG
( 14 ) - SHAH AKBAR - 54KG
( 15 ) - KOMMETDIEDING - 53.5KG
( 16 ) - SHE'S A KEEPER - 53KG
( 17 ) - MATTERHORN - 52KG
( 18 ) - TRIP TO AFRICA - 52KG


I'm sorry, I don't follow - where do you get these weights from - are you saying that this should be the weights based as you 'devised' ?


Frodo these are possible weights what I have thought.


The weights is not a mystery - as it stands, Rainbow Bridge will be the top weight at 60 kgs; then one can calculate the weights to be carried (also taking into account the min and max weights as set out in the conditions of the race) using current MR - e.g. Cirillo at 120 will carry 53 (as RB is a 134)

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1 week 1 day ago #819585 by Sylvester
it looks like Johnny Hero has been supplemented.

www.sahorseracing.co.za/sahr/public.html#sdraw#1

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1 week 23 hours ago #819586 by Frodo

Sylvester wrote: it looks like Johnny Hero has been supplemented.

www.sahorseracing.co.za/sahr/public.html#sdraw#1


Only 7 kgs under sufferance on official ratings - mind you not the worst off - that honor falls to She's a Keeper (trading at only 25/1) at a massive 11 kgs under sufferance :ohmy:

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