TIPPING’S NOT AS SIMPLE AS IT LOOKS

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2 months 1 day ago #822709 by Bob Brogan
TIPPING’S NOT AS SIMPLE AS IT LOOKS was created by Bob Brogan


TIPPING’S NOT AS SIMPLE AS IT LOOKS
by Gary Lemke, supplied by GGGaming.bet

One of the easiest things to do as a couch critic or keyboard warrior for that matter, is to always believe that you can do a better job than a racing tipster, writes Gary Lemke for GGGaming.

Horse racing tipping is one of the toughest and thankless tasks in all of sport.
Consider this: in rugby there are three possible results, but in most cases only two as the draw is uncommon. In soccer there are also three possible outcomes, but the draw becomes a much livelier option. And therefore it’s a “three-horse race” as opposed to rugby’s “two-horse race”.
I have found over the years that if one can achieve a 55-60 percent winning ration in soccer you’ll end up in credit.
Now, racing. There are as many as 20 horses in one race.

The Vodacom Durban July had 18 horses go to the start and Kommetdieding won at odds of 10-1. It was a popular selection and there were plenty of happy punters across the land. If they ran the race again tomorrow, I would still have gone for Linebacker and Gotthegreenlight to finish 1st and 2nd and recommended the exacta (1-2). The swinger was the bet of the year. They finished 2nd and 3rd, and those who took swingers would have made a profit.
I know though that my studying of form was just about spot on.

However, there’s no such thing as a racing certainty. There are so many things that can go wrong in a race, like Do It Again was hampered twice in the straight in the July. In every race an element of luck is required, and then there is the jockey to factor in and that the horse itself is made of flesh and blood and might not be feeling 100 percent when it wakes up in the morning. It can’t tell us that.

So, when we tip a horse and it doesn’t run up to expectation, us tipsters get ridiculed. But, run the race tomorrow and the result might be different. Then, tip a winner and the keyboard warrior will say, “any clown can tip a favourite”. Sure, but would you rather have a favourite wins than an outsider who doesn’t win?
There’s a runner at Kenilworth on Saturday that I’m going to be backing and playing a lot of doubles across the card and into next week’s Champions Day meeting. If it loses, I’m going to have to cancel all those Takealot orders.

Gem King is tipped by Computaform to finish second in the fourth race at Kenilworth but I can’t see him losing. He will start favourite, of that there is no doubt and the fact he’s owned by a man who has never been shy to put his money where his mouth is.
However, the manner in which he ran on when second on his debut over the same Kenilworth 1000m made me mark in my notebook, “next time – and then into his three-year-old career”. He’s from the unfashionable stable of Piet Steyn, but remember he and owners Marsh Shirtliff and Bryn Ressell teamed up with the now exported Katak for Steyn.

I just loved the look of his debut and he came from eight lengths back at the 400m mark to go down by half a length. Sure, you can tell me that he’ll be a short-priced favourite and anyone can tip him, but at some stage you need to realise that a tipster does do homework and when they advise you to have a winning bet then they really are trying to help you.

Candice Bass-Robinson, whose stable is sponsored by GGGaming, is still searching for her 100th winner before the end of the season (31st July) but will get over the line before then. She still needs four more winners for the milestone and rates High Moon in race seven at Kenilworth tomorrow as her best bet on the card.

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2 months 1 day ago #822713 by Tony T
It may be tough being a professional tipster but it certainly isnt thankless considering its presumably a well paid job.
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2 months 10 hours ago #822770 by Mac
A piece of psi’s.


Sent from my Ferrari using Tapatalk

"Lot 226, 2016 NYS, Diamondveld, R1.5m"

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2 months 7 hours ago #822785 by Dave Scott
Horses can make a fool of all of us 😩
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2 months 7 hours ago #822786 by ElvisisKing
Goes to show u ........there's NO CERTAINTY IN RACING ! :unsure:
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1 month 4 weeks ago #822839 by PeterD
We would all agree that tipping is not easy- as in most forms of gambling, the “house” always wins in aggregate in the long run. The high level of takeout by both the tote and SA bookies exacerbates it.
There are, however, many kinds of tipster. Some examples:
1. Promotional tipsters for gambling companies whose job is to encourage people to bet. The author of this article falls into this category. His employer doesn’t care how well he tips- they just want turnover.
2. Publication tipsters. Their job is to build readership in order to attract advertisers’ revenue . Historically this was print media, now becoming overwhelmingly digital, and proliferation is much easier due to accessible platforms.
3. Tipsters who sell their tips. They get paid by subscription by those who are delusional enough to think that they can make a profit following these tips.
4. Amateur tipsters like those on ABC who have a variety of motivations, such as enjoying exchanging viewpoints; ego/ boasting rights; wishing to promote open an transparent punter info etc.

I have always believed that the attraction of horse playing is the mental challenge of picking winners/making winning bets. Outsourcing the decision making to a tipster thus makes no sense to me. Would I ask someone else to fill in my crossword puzzle ???

I draw a distinction between the supply of useful information and analysis which helps punters save time or which educates and improves ones own decision making, and those who just tip in one of the categories listed above. Many tipsters do try to do a bit of both.
I just wish that the tellytrack continuity announcers would learn that the important 80% of their job is thus not the tipping bit, at which most of them fail miserably.
Nadine does the best job of getting the views of all the trainers for all the horses in PE.
Warren in Durban and Julie in Gauteng are in my view the least helpful.

What is sadly lacking is any consistent, long term reporting of the results of all the professional tipsters. All you get is selective reporting of successes to self- promote.

The most powerful tool in any horse gamblers box is the ability to select which races to bet on and which ones to stay out of. You cannot win in the long run by betting on every race. You do have a chance if you bet when you see value.
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1 month 4 weeks ago #822840 by Dave Scott
Well said Peter and an excellent summary.

I think the one question that has always concerned me .
Why would a tipster sell his information rather than just Punting himself.
It's obviously to have a free punt (if he does punt, with other punters money).

Where do I sign......

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1 month 4 weeks ago #822841 by CnC 306
Great post Peter although you did miss point 5 and they are the after race tipsters aka ARM of which ABC can boast of having a few really good ones who constantly contribute and all free of charge.
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1 month 4 weeks ago #822842 by TNaicker
I long ago made the decision to stick to set weight races only...yes, I have wavered many times by taking bets in handicaps but I've kept my discipline of late and it has been hugely beneficial to me...

The odds on the preferred selection may not be anywhere near as enticing as in handicaps but a lot more likely to have a winning bet than in a handicap where more than half the field have some chance...

All the best to fellow Clanners...slow and steady wins your own personal race...:)

Life's too short to have a long face...so, cherish the good, learn from the bad and forget the rest...
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1 month 4 weeks ago #822847 by LSU
Great comments guys, and some good advice in a number of them. How many of us actually play to show a profit? I am not suggesting that any of us play to lose but to what extent does having an afternoons fun and entertainment contribute to your involvement.

I think getting rich from any form of gambling is an illusion or is it a delusion for most people. It also depends a lot on your income. If you are living on below, on or just above the bread line any win is of great value and can make a big difference for a few days, even weeks. The really rich could not care if they won a single ticket pay out on the Pick 6 as it's just funny money to them.

Then it leaves the middle class who loves to have a winning bet for the sake of it as I am sure that none of us have any plans to retire from the game after any sizeable win.

So what motivates your involvement?

I am most definitely in it for the love of the game and the fun of having an occasional winning ticket. It's a wonderful feeling when your selection or selections arrive home and I would also never have an interest in receiving or paying for tips. In share buying there is a saying "Where there is a tip there is a tap" and the same applies to racing.

I would have no fun playing somebody else's selections as its the joy of finding the correct one's that provides me with interest and not the winning. Make no mistake I love a win as much as the next guy but it is not my only driver to taking part.

Have to say that a lot of the fun has gone out of the game for me as I battle with the current handicapping system and don't have the patience or the commitment to spend hours and hours studying form.

We will never get new people involved in any significant numbers if we don't make the journey to a useful level of skill more enjoyable through more entertaining and less punishing formats.

Racing should be and could be a lot more fun for skilled and the uninitiated alike. Until our operators realise the need for fun games, racing will continue to plod along.
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1 month 4 weeks ago #822848 by cross
Horse racing like all other sports are at least educated guesses.
That`s why i stopped playing lotto.
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1 month 4 weeks ago #822850 by TNaicker

Great post Peter although you did miss point 5 and they are the after race tipsters aka ARM of which ABC can boast of having a few really good ones who constantly contribute and all free of charge.


And they boast a 100% record !!:whistle: :cheer:

Life's too short to have a long face...so, cherish the good, learn from the bad and forget the rest...

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1 month 4 weeks ago #822853 by easy
I completely disagree with Peter D (point 3)
and
Dave Scott "why would they sell them"

1st Ill start with LESS IS MORE this seems to be a problem for our South African clients and they pretty much bail on us after 1 month. Saffas want us to tip every race, tip exotics and show a profit. It reminds me of when I was on At The Races and due to programme time's I was "FORCED" to tip and select in races I would never even wager 1 Penny on.

When I launched IRC MEDIA it was with LESS IS MORE in mind. And Guess what for a mere £20 a month you would be up over 500 points this year. This is because I assembled a team that bought into the less is more theory as well as recognising that EVERYONE goes off form at some point. SO by having a cross section of sports advice we are almost always providing someone with a profit most days. Thats because we don't ONLY do horses. We do golf/dogs/F1/Rugby/UK Horses/Aus Horses/ SA Horses/ TV Specials Betting/Greyhounds

SO in theory when one of us is off form the other carries the can and its worked.

Now onto Daves theory. Well from my point of view its quite simple. Most of us in the UK cannot even get on at the moment and not for any serious money anyway. It has become a chore to open up accounts in other peoples names. The latest price for a bet 365 acc is £800 a month and in most instances it lasts 2/3 weeks.

So we switch to a "selling " business. Now with 204 subscribers and growing we can look at "winning" differently and not stress about getting on. Our model says we will be at 1000 subscribers by the end of 2022 and quite frankly that £20k per month will be easier to achieve than trying to win it of "bookmakers" in the UK. Of course some of our clients might ALSO have their accounts closed BUT what we find is that most of them use our selections to BOOST their bank and then do their own thing anyway most days.

What I do agree with is the heading of this thread.

Tipping is Not as Simple as it Looks BUT neither is it the poison and bad business most think it is.

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1 month 4 weeks ago #822862 by Tony T
What’s the difference between a tipster and a dog?
In about ten years, the dog quits whining. :P

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1 month 4 weeks ago #822888 by PeterD
In reply to Easy's post, the question arises as to what does the client who buys tips get for their money?
If they are not participating in the game of choosing what to bet on, but are just trying to make a profit on following the tips, then they have to consider what else they could do with that money?
Even if there are rare tipsters who can show that their clients have made a profit by following their tips, they need to deduct from that profit the cost of the service.
You then need to compare the outcome for the client with his real alternatives- eg. Putting that same monthly amount into a unit trust fund. After all, he is just looking for a return, not the entertainment of picking winners himself.
I would challenge any tipster of any betting type to demonstrate that his client would be better off over a 5 year period by buying his tips and risking the necessary stake money, than by just putting that money away in a simple investment plan.

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1 month 4 weeks ago #822894 by easy
Our is £20 a month and after today its nearly 600 points up for the year.

Investing in a plan is different because once you pay in your monthly that is it its gone. Yes you will get a return but really your money does not turn over and over.

Having said that of Course you should buy a house, invest in something, buy shares, start a business. BUT that should not stop you from punting. Also why does a tipster's advice have to be the be all and end all.

Perhaps if you followed us today you would have added Glory Days to the P6.

We backed it outright but perhaps you would have just added it.

So there are many benefits and of course draw backs. What I can say is it does not have to be one or the other.

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