:Fears and thoughts in South Africa

....people were losing their sh!t at the shops yesterday ......one very old oke looked like he was going to die before the lock down had 2 trolleys of wine....possibly prepping for the funeral.....

We enter the lockdown with around 600 confirmed cases. Those 600 have been through a process of getting infected, developing symptoms, getting sick enough to get a test, and then testing positive. We need to understand that right now there is a large but unknown number of people at various stages in that process. A reasonable estimate based on the progression of the epidemic elsewhere would be 5000-10000 people in SA infected already but not known nor able to be reported. That’s why the lockdown is so important- if we did not do so, then the disease would quickly spread throughout the population as there are already many carriers.
Even if the lockdown is very effective in restricting further infections ( and that is not at all a certainty) then the number of confirmed cases will continue to rise rapidly In the coming weeks through the natural progression of those currently infected through the above phases. One of the communication challenges will be keeping people motivated to maintain the disciplines of hygiene and social distancing while the numbers keep rising.
The key message is that rising numbers over the next few weeks are NOT a reflection of the efficacy of the lockdown measures, but an inevitable progression of the disease amongst those already infected prior to lockdown.
One also hears stupid comments like “ there have been no deaths yet in SA so what’s the problem “.
Deaths are the ultimate lag indicator. Confirmed cases is also a lag indicator. If there are indeed as many as 10000 infected people already, then over the next few weeks
- 8000 of those will recover with no serious intervention
- 2000 will get very ill
- 100 or more will die.

Muhtiman wrote:

Bob Brogan wrote: Spare a thought for our elderly members, Magi, Davetheflower and Muhitman

........still as fit as a fiddle .....but not as fit as Magi.....when shopping yesterday one guy looks into my trolley and says is that going to see you through 21 days....I tell him no way boet.....the shops aren't closing ....I will be back every day....
,.....and to Magi .....Come va..... tutti bene....

tutto bene grazie ! OZ le corse mi trattano bene ...

We are in a siege here.... my missus spends her days at Tygerberg and Grooteschuur hospitals, the youngster works at Woolworths on the retail floor and her nephew who is living with us works in the hospital laundry, sanitizing bed covers and sheets etc....including mattresses.

This lock down ain't gonna help us too much...... BUT ... we are vigilant and of course have access to plenty sanitizers etc.

We have established one room with access to the garden as a quarantine area, we sanitize before entering the house...including shoes, door handles everything.

We all take our temperatures twice a day ...

Every morning we do the breath test (deep breath, hold for 10 seconds or more.... no discomfort...all good to go)

Note to Dave: Your playlist looks great.... needs some upbeat stuff to dance with your missus to... and Pink Floyd...

For all of you out there who need your spirits lifted... take ten minutes to listen and watch this performance...it must be one of the most joyous music celebration.



Namaste !!

Damn Dave you are a genius !!! I have been trying to find out who she is .... so I could explore her music..

As a tip for the information ... Grant van Niekerk double at Happy Valley Best Alliance and All You Know (fixed place)

Whenever I'm feeling a bit miserable or gloomy, this vid helps ease the pain. Quality isn't great & needs to be listened to loud. !! The one & only Foy Vance. Enjoy.