Turffontein Inside - 15/09/2022

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Turffontein Inside - 15/09/2022

1 year 6 months ago - 1 year 6 months ago
#850537
Race 6: 76 Handicap 1450m

This all revolves around #2 CAPTAIN PEG (8-10).

Unlike most punters, my default for each race is to try and beat the Fav. Obviously, sometimes the Fav is clearly the right horse and I’m not shy to be on a Fav, but I do want to beat them.

In this case I make #2 CAPTAIN PEG very hard to beat. She’s been sluggish out the gates in both her starts, but in both instances she’s showed a good turn-of-foot at the business end and she was really impressive over this trip last time. Her maiden win was in a very weak field, so she looked like she’d have a really tough task against some decent opposition in a 3 yr olds only Graduation in her 2nd start. The reality is, she simply blew them away. She could ONLY get a maximum of 6 points because that was a Graduation (8 if it had been a handicap), but in reality she ran to about a 99. So off a mark of 92 she looks extremely well-in here despite having to give weight to all bar 1. She looks a banker in all bets and she’s hard to beat.

Check out the rest of my blog on:

bettingmyway.com/2022/09/14/turffontein-inside-15-09-2022/
Last edit: 1 year 6 months ago by Justanotherpunter.
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Re: Turffontein Inside - 15/09/2022

1 year 6 months ago
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Re: Turffontein Inside - 15/09/2022

1 year 6 months ago
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Re: Turffontein Inside - 15/09/2022

1 year 6 months ago
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Re: Turffontein Inside - 15/09/2022

1 year 6 months ago
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Re: Turffontein Inside - 15/09/2022

1 year 6 months ago
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Re: Turffontein Inside - 15/09/2022

1 year 6 months ago
#850554
Top class blog WG. Different class.
Thanks for all the insight.
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Re: Turffontein Inside - 15/09/2022

1 year 6 months ago - 1 year 6 months ago
#850562
Another card dominated by smallish fields and small stakes - which also leads to not a lot of meetings scheduled for Sept - one has to wonder if there is not merit in the idea of not having any racing up here for the August / Sept period - but that would of course make it even harder for owners - today at least an opportunity to earn at least a stake cheque, with very moderate horses (e.g. in Race 1 today) - we urgently need the spring rains and inspiration from the powers-that-be, anyway, as always, there will still be at least 8 winners today - thoughts:

R1: An uninspiring bunch of Maidens, bar the first-timer, who would not have to be too good to win this with a leading rider in the irons - one has to have doubts though about the trip and the draw, so who knows; at the odds I think Voshaarnooi may be the value, but no great confidence and I'm loading up in the BP

R2: 5 runners only - so pace will be factor, and although Jaimala is not well in at the weights, he is racing fit, so definite chance imo; hard to say how fit the others are - Bold Fortune best weighted, so I think it could lie between BF and Jaimala

R3: Another weak-looking Maiden, where the first timer Iron Sky is at the top of the boards - so a little guesswork again, but looking at the opposition, he could be the right one

R4: Only 6 runners - very little between White Fang and Flying First Class on form, and I think one of them will win, with the other in 2nd place; the others look held at these weights imo; Royal Mazarin has his 2nd start for a new stable, likes the track and trip and has found support in the market, so next best imo

R5: I think this is open; Coldhardstare won her only start when supported in the market, and obviously needs to be considered, but most of the others are not without a chance; Up the Irish won her Maiden very easily sporting pacifiers and would be my each-way pick at the odds

R6: Captain Peg all the rage and should be hard to beat if repeating her post-maiden effort when winning in a canter (as mentioned by JAP, earning a rating of around 98 / 99); Dancing Arabian has her regular jock aboard, so should be thereabouts, with Special Variety, Princess Philippa, Mamaquera and Red Carpet Girl all in the running for 2nd

R7: Competitive handicap; Paton's Tears looks well in - overdue to win, but I think today could be the day; Lucy in the Sky very capable and not a lot between her and Crimson Princess, but both seem held by Paton's Tears on their last meeting; Golden Aspen has in 4 starts over this track and trip) never run worse than 2nd - so could be dangerous, while What a Honey seems better shorter, but not to be ignored

R8: Classified Stakes (so females have an advantage at the weights) - tough race imo; Fantasy Flower has never run at this track, but she is in form and is my first choice from a nice draw; main danger imo is Stolen Thunder, rating has dropped, so even being a male, does not seem badly in - was drawn wide in his penultimate run, which was over this track and trip, and has been dropped 6 points - good draw, so definite chance imo; Luthuli won his maiden well, but not too sure about the form and has a wide draw to boot, others to consider Ridge to Reef, West Point and Just Be Nice

Enjoy B)
Last edit: 1 year 6 months ago by Frodo.
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Re: Turffontein Inside - 15/09/2022

1 year 6 months ago
#850567
......still staying out of these largely mediocre events until the better stuff is stepped out after the rains....but must add that Captain Peg is a bit of an enigma as the day it won 1st time out.... I overheard the trainer who was at the TBA on that day....one day before National yearling sales earlier this year .....say it showed him nothing at work..... :unsure:
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Re: Turffontein Inside - 15/09/2022

1 year 6 months ago
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Re: Turffontein Inside - 15/09/2022

1 year 6 months ago
#850569
my 1st punt in quite some time....... just loosing interest in these shitty fields, Durban - one day ALL favourites arrive - next day..... all the donkeys arrive.... seems to be no consistency anymore......... Big T track looks like shit.....and so on... so on.

my only bet today R6 e/way DANCING ARABIAN...... Down from a MR 90 race to MR 76.... fair draw 3 outa 8 Danielson rides again... gone e/way 14 / 1 and 18 / 10 place.

re the FAV... totally unfancied in 1st 2 starts..... 16 / 1 and 12 / 1 ..... now she's ODDS ON :sick: :sick: :sick:
let's see if she BRINGS HOME THE BACON WEN FANCIED :silly: :silly:

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Re: Turffontein Inside - 15/09/2022

1 year 6 months ago
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