FINAL FIELD - HOLLYWOODBETS GOLD CHALLENGE (Grade 1)

Challenge result can affect July weights

David Thiselton


The Gr 1 Hollywoodbets Gold Challenge has not only attracted a strong field but it also has a fair chance of causing an upheaval to the Hollywoodbets Durban July weights.


The two highest rated horses in the country, Charles Dickens and Al Muthana, are in the field and so are five July horses, Do It Again, Safe Passage, Zapatillas, Rascallion and Cousin Casey.


Charles Dickens and Al Muthana on a gross and net of 132, are merit rated eight points higher than the highest rated July horses, the 124 gross and net merit-rated pair Safe Passage and Do It Again.


So, as it stands, the July weights are quite compact.


The top three-year-olds in the July, See It Again, Cousin Casey and Dave The King will all carry 57kg as things stand, although See It Again off his 124 merit rating (120 net) will be 1kg well in. As things stand any older male rated 110 or above will be in the handicap and an older female rated 108 and above will be in the handicap.


However, Charles Dickens and Al Muthana stand out as obvious choices as line horses for the Gold Challenge.


It is a Gr 1 weight for age (WFA) mile and you can hardly get a better yardstick i.e., Al Muthana, who has won two Gr 1 WFA miles.


However, Charles Dickens is widely regarded as the best miler in the country, despite his defeat to Al Muthana in the Gr 1 WFA L’Ormarins King’s Plate.


You can hardly get a more consistent horse than Charles Dickens, who has had nine starts for seven wins and two seconds.


So, one of these horses could well be the line horse when the handicapping assessment is done after the race.


If any of the older July horses, Do It Again, Safe Passage, Zapatillas and Rascallion finish within three lengths of one of that pair, presuming one of the latter is chosen as the line horse, then there is likely to be a change to the July weights.


A two-length margin or a one-length margin will mean a significant change.


If Safe Passage, for example, finishes one length behind Charles Dickens or Al Muthana and the latter is chosen as one of the line horses, then Safe Passage might be raised to 130.


That means See It Again will then carry 55kg in the July, Cousin Casey will carry 54kg, Dave The King 54kg and Without Question 53kg, while a few horses at the bottom of the weights will come under sufferance.


Piere Strydom will not be able to ride See It Again if that scenario does pan out, having stated his minimum riding weight for the July will be 57kg.


If Cousin Casey finishes close up to one of those line horses and the older horses are out of the picture then it will be good news for Strydom.


Cousin Casey, in that scenario, will only have an effect on the July weights if he goes above a 128 merit rating.


If he goes to 130, for example, he will become the highest net merit rated horse in the July at 126 and the weights would have to be set on him.


It gets complicated, but after they have been set on him carrying 60kg he will go down to 57kg to fulfil the clause about three-year-olds not carrying more than 57kg.


That would then leave Do It Again and Safe Passage as topweights on 59kg.


The latter pair would then have to be dragged up to 60kg and the rest of the field will have to be dragged up 1kg with them.


It would leave Cousin Casey and See It Again carrying 58kg, Dave The King 57kg and Without Question 56kg, whilst the bottom weighted male would be 54kg and bottom weighted female 53kg.


Piere Strydom will be hoping to see Charles Dickens and Al Muthana fighting it out on Saturday with the rest of the field in a different parish.


Or he will hope to see, for example, a wide margin win for Charles Dickens with Al Muthana running a below par race to prevent him from being used as the line horse.


Who else in the field could be used as a line horse?


The 127-rated Trip Of Fortune has been consistent this season.


The 122 rated trio Cousin Casey, Zapatillas and Rascallion have all been pretty consistent too.


Perhaps the handicappers will be lenient and choose one of the latter as the line horse.


After all they are well aware that Hollywoodbets Greyville finishes in top class events tend to be closer than they would be on a galloping track, because of the tendency in SA racing go relatively slowly and then sprint for home coupled with the shortness of the Greyville straight. Lesser horses often get quite close to superior horses on this course.


The handicappers are well aware of that tendency and may use that knowledge to prevent unrealistic handicapping changes.


However, the Gr 1 WFA Hollywoodbets Gold Challenge does definitely pose a risk to the current July weight structure.

Interesting posts thank you.

Is it possible we could see Rachael in the July?
I don't think her allowance qualifies?

As normal the July always gives us plenty food for thought.

Dave, I'm sure it's a certainty that if Striker doesn't rIde... then Rachael will be on TOP ! ( & u could choose WORSE than her that's for sure )

wonder if Striker is prepared to FAST to get down to 56 if required ?

Hopefully sanity will prevail - in a smallish field I think it is likely that the field will be bunched up at the finish - leading to the horses finishing close to (for arguments sake) CD and / or AM and / or ToF achieving higher theoretical ratings; for me the ratings of all CD, AM and ToF are too high - so in theory the horses running behind them would receive an increased rating to what they currently have - which in turn would favor the runners not taking part in the Gold Challenge - lots to debate :dry: