Nice card for the last Durbanville meeting for a while.
Race 1 Meet the King has the best form, and gets a good draw, but this is a competitive race and the price is too skinny for me.
Eugenius on my ratings just 1kg below him and is the main danger of the raced runners. Ignite the Fire came from far back last time and is another to consider. Supposeyou'veheard has faded late last two but has shown ability and gets a good draw. Gimme The Truth is related to a gr1 juvenile winner so must be respected despite the draw.
Race 2 Miami Summer has been priced hot favourite, and ran well last time, but again the price is too skinny. The lurker here is Peace on You which ran on well when green on debut, and ran very well at the weights. Good ew value at 9/1. Symbolic Gesture and Cedar Point are improving 3yo's that can't be ignored. Klein Karoo and Perfect Impact are older geldings that are well in at the weights against the youngsters.
Race 3 Black Eagle looks hard to beat and is a worthy favourite. Main danger is Oliver
Race 4 Calanque won well last time and gets a plum draw. She looks the one to beat. If she fails then its very open.
Race 5 Caribbean Gold should win this and is decent value at 5/2. Good draw, and has been nominated for Gr2 race so obviously considered better than what she has shown so far. Danger is Siriano.
Race 6 Beach Verse has been priced up favourite and gets the services of Fourie and a fair draw. It is rumoured that she is much better with the blinkers that are fitted for the first time. If that's the case then she will be tough to beat.
Our filly Elusive Gift gets a good draw and is on the up. We were beaten 3/4 length at level weights by Beach Verse at our penultimate but we were still very green that day. We have to give her a kilo this time. I'm hoping that we have improved sufficiently to win or go very close, and 6/1 is good ew value. The other danger is Oncidium, although Apricity and Act of Grace should also go into quartets.
Race 7 This looks a two horse race between Eisteddfod and Red Beryl , and I like them in that order.
Race 8 Fox on The Run won well last time and has the scope to win again. Pomp it Up has a similar profile and is the main danger, but a wide draw. If those two fail, then its very open
The following user(s) said Thank You: Sylvester, Tigershark
Let's see who's sharper in race 2....the bookies or the jock.
JP said he would be disappointed if Miami Summer doesn't win easy but the bookies think otherwise....drifted from 7-10 to 12-10 already.
Let's see who's sharper in race 2....the bookies or the jock.
JP said he would be disappointed if Miami Summer doesn't win easy but the bookies think otherwise....drifted from 7-10 to 12-10 already.
The horse opened 13/10 (ante post), and was backed into 7/10 - because it did not represent something backable on the head at those odds, bookies have no option but to ease it out - never went bigger than the ante post price, besides the drift does not necessarily mean the horse is no good.
Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.
Bayern they backing Oliver here....your one gone to 14-10.
Let's hope Adam Marcus's poor form continues here.....this is his 40th runner this season and he has yet to have a winner.
Bayern they backing Oliver here....your one gone to 14-10.
Let's hope Adam Marcus's poor form continues here.....this is his 40th runner this season and he has yet to have a winner.
Durbs, that is natural - when there is support for another horse in the race, one or two in the market must drift - doesn't mean the original favourite can't win and the boolies are balancing their books.
It would be a worry if the favourite went from 13/10 out to 3/1 on the jump - always remember, bookies don't give money away, why should the give you three times more?
Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.
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