Afternoon.
This afternoon completed, and went as follows......
The 1st runner we wanted 3.2, and with being around 3.4 on arrival and just getting bigger and bigger, we never see our lay price at any stage, so all had to avoid the race. The runner was beaten, so the drift more than justified and 'one that got away in hindsight'.........
The 2nd runner we wanted 1.3, and with being much higher on arrival and not coming down to us at any stage at all, it was another race to avoid for all. The runner was beaten, so again the market told the story and 'one that got away in hindsight'......
The 3rd runner we wanted 2.4, but a non runner and 10.5% reduction meant we now wanted a lay price of 2.25. The price was around 2.1 on arrival and getting shorter, so we had a lay at around 2.1 max. The lay went and won well in the end, so again the market correct and the way it goes. Only traders playing now though, and with them getting their trade back prices in running, they got away with it.....
The 4th runner we wanted 2.44, but a non runner and 16.7% reduction meant we now wanted a lay price of 2.2. The price was around that on arrival, so we had a lay at around 2.2. The price then drifted out to our own price of 2.5 and beyond, so a chance for traders to have a 'free' lay before the race. The lay/trade took a fall, so hope he's OK, but a good result financially.........
The 5th and final runner we wanted 2.0, and with being around that on arrival, we had a lay at 2.0. The price then drifted out to our own price of 2.3 and way beyond, so a chance for traders to have a 'free' lay before the race. The lay/trade went and won in slow motion, so the way it goes but no harm done with the free lay........
WELL PLAYED...(Traders that is, as they the only players today)
'Rolling' strategy/target players (no 'free' lays for them) see the first two go by being no play races, and that left them with an insufficient amount to work with, so they get no play today and finish level, obviously...
Bank builder strategy/target players had the same happen to them, with no play in the first couple of races which left them with an insufficient amount to work with, so again levels they finish up..
Traders either won, or broke level on all their trades, so well played..
So a little frustrating for strategists, as the first two get beat, but they get no action! Saying that though, we all know it's about value and if we opposed above the odds then we'd lose in the long run, so the way it goes for today and strategists get no action....Have a good evening and speak in the morning...
Marc.
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Morning.
The races, runners, and prices, to work around for this afternoon then, as follows......
2.20 Fontwell. CROCODILE'S ROCK (1.27)
Our price 1/5 (1.2) and so no bets can be advised at current odds. If we see 1.16 or under, we'll go in for a lay. *Traders be aware that although he tends to be held up in his races, this is a weak race and McCoy 'may' decide to take it up if not much pace early*
2.55 Fontwell. CAVA BIEN (1.54)
Our price 1/2 (1.5) and so no bets can be advised at current odds. If we see 1.3 or under, we'll go in for a lay. If a non runner and we go down to just a two runner race, then we shall be avoiding the race completely!. *Traders be aware that he has a few ways of running, but with this being a small field of just three runners, he *may* well try to make all*
3.25 Fontwell. MISBEHAVIOUR (2.3)
Our price 17/10 (2.7) and so a LAY is the call at current odds. We'd lay up to 2.4 or under.
4.30 Fontwell. JUST PADDY (2.52)
Our price 7/4 (2.75) and so no bets can be advised at current odds. If we see 2.44 or under, we'll go in for a lay.
5.00 Fontwell. CLEYMOOR HOUSE (1.9)
Our price 13/10 (2.3) and so a LAY is the call at current odds. We'd lay up to 2.0 or under. *Traders be aware that he likes to race very prominent, and at times lead in his races*
All races priced up with non runners taken into account, up until 09:52am.
So just the one meeting for us this afternoon, and an all out assault on Fontwell it is! Not quite that dramatic, but we'll take our satchels there and hope to make a few quid. Seriously though, it does look very tough, so I'd advise builders to think very carefully before they commit themselves, as much better and easier looking days ahead.
So win or lose it's never a bad move to avoid these tough looking days when building banks - up to you though guys, but you have been warned. Saying that, the only certainty in racing is the uncertainty of it, so it could go much better than expected and let's hope so! Rollers will have a go, so discipline to the maximum and take advantage of any prices that come our way.
I've said this once, and I'll say it again - I do 'think' of adding the Irish cards when only one meeting to work around, but to be honest guys I just cannot get confident enough in my ability to price those races up, as my knowledge of Irish racing falls a bit short of the mark to go chancing a strategy or trading around (same with the rest though Marc, I hear you cry!), so best all round to just leave it alone! Good luck and speak soon...
Marc.
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