Ashford Castle wins as tote favorite 10 Nov 2021 How?

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Ashford Castle wins as tote favorite 10 Nov 2021 How?

2 years 5 months ago - 2 years 5 months ago
#828911
so 5 horses ran

Checked SAHORSERACING.CO.ZA program schedule to understand weight allocation for the race.

3-year-old Allowance of 2.0 kg - Only notes for the race.

so all 5 runners 4 year olds so above dont apply.

4 of the 5 were 3 time winners and only Vihaans was a 2 time winner so she gets 2-3.5 from the 3 timers.

the 4 fillies carried less weight than Ashford castle so i assume some sort of gender allowance.

All those out the way i then look at the Merit Ratings and see that the 86 rated colt is as much as 21.5 points out at the weights

i go check the Ashford castle form line and i see 2 wins on the bounce and 4 points total for the wins.

i go check the form out of those races.

Runner up in last race Gaelic chief next run was 3rd to a mid 70s rating
and runners from may win no big shakes all running mid 70s ratings.

So how then does this horse beat 105/106 rated black type fillies . and no less as the favorite.

edited>>>>> here and 5 lengths clear of 107 rated Love Bomb and 8 clear of the other 2 .

I would love some expert advice or insight.

Thanks
Last edit: 2 years 5 months ago by Sylvester.
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Re: Ashford Castle wins as tote favorite 10 Nov 2021 How?

2 years 5 months ago
#828917
This sport is so complex, the guys at the Tote are bamboozled. When will this sport become simplified for some of the men at the Tote with limited literacy.

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Re: Ashford Castle wins as tote favorite 10 Nov 2021 How?

2 years 5 months ago - 2 years 5 months ago
#828925
As per racing and sports website. Ashford castle is one of the top money earners also ran in this years feature race on July day. Also has the best career strike rate.

Last edit: 2 years 5 months ago by Zain Nabi.

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Re: Ashford Castle wins as tote favorite 10 Nov 2021 How?

2 years 5 months ago
#828928
Sylvester is quering the reason for:- Ashford Castle merit rated 86 carrying 61,5kg.
Love Bomb merit rated 106 carrying 57kg.

Generally the higher the merit rating the more weight the horse carries. Yes there is sex & age allowance etc. But this is an anomaly, punters find it hard to decipher what is going on. Punters would like to know the reason for the weight discrepancies. If there is valid reason punters might buy into it. It's all to complex anyway. 'Keep it simple stupid'

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Re: Ashford Castle wins as tote favorite 10 Nov 2021 How?

2 years 5 months ago - 2 years 5 months ago
#829038
Progress Plates are weighted solely on number of wins as well as preceding unplaced runs. Nothing to do with Merit Ratings.

Don't know where to find the official conditions, so stand to be corrected, but I believe it's 61kg standard for 3 time winners and allowances given to number of unplaced races since horse's last win. 0.5 kg per run if I'm not mistaken ( and I think that's limited to 3kg ).

Therefore Ashford Castle carried 61 because he won last time out while Love Bomb ran unplaced 5 times ( 2.5 kg allowance in total ) + 1.5 kg sex allowance.

Vihaans Pie. 2 time winner - allocated 58 kg .... 3 unplaced runs .... - 1.5 kg + 1.5 kg sex allowance. Weight carried 55kg
Last edit: 2 years 5 months ago by ICE MACHINE.
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Re: Ashford Castle wins as tote favorite 10 Nov 2021 How?

2 years 5 months ago
#829043
I'm definitely no expert on trying to work out a horses true merit rating but does this example show how good or bad merit ratings can be?
Do they get it right or wrong most times?

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Re: Ashford Castle wins as tote favorite 10 Nov 2021 How?

2 years 5 months ago - 2 years 5 months ago
#829115
On a whole I respect the MR system but unfortunately, as with all human driven initiatives, ego plays a major role when blatant errors are made.
Let's take Scented Mistress for example ... a measly 2 time winner racing off a 116. To put things into perspective, she finished 0.8 lengths behind Keep on Dancing a few runs back off a rating of 91. She then ran 3rd behind War of Athena in a 6 horse field and was immediately hiked up to the 116.

Meanwhile Keep on Dancing, the same horse that beat Scented Mistess has won twice since, including a Grade 2 beating MR 100 and 109 easily in the process - and she is now rated 92 ! 24 points lower than a horse she beat 3 runs ago.

To put things into perspective, since that War of Athena run, Scented Mistress has run 12 lengths back and then 6 lengths back and then unplaced in a Graduation Plate. Her rating has not been adjusted by 1 point !

It sheds more light on the reason why small owners are too petrified to chase their dreams of winning a big race because if you happen to run a mediocre place, you'll never get a chance to be competitive again.

Just have the professionalism to drop a horse's rating when you realise you've overreacted on one solitary run and try and not drive competitive lifespans into the ground.
Last edit: 2 years 5 months ago by ICE MACHINE.
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Re: Ashford Castle wins as tote favorite 10 Nov 2021 How?

2 years 3 months ago
#832838
ICE MACHINE wrote:
On a whole I respect the MR system but unfortunately, as with all human driven initiatives, ego plays a major role when blatant errors are made.
Let's take Scented Mistress for example ... a measly 2 time winner racing off a 116. To put things into perspective, she finished 0.8 lengths behind Keep on Dancing a few runs back off a rating of 91. She then ran 3rd behind War of Athena in a 6 horse field and was immediately hiked up to the 116.

Meanwhile Keep on Dancing, the same horse that beat Scented Mistess has won twice since, including a Grade 2 beating MR 100 and 109 easily in the process - and she is now rated 92 ! 24 points lower than a horse she beat 3 runs ago.

To put things into perspective, since that War of Athena run, Scented Mistress has run 12 lengths back and then 6 lengths back and then unplaced in a Graduation Plate. Her rating has not been adjusted by 1 point !

It sheds more light on the reason why small owners are too petrified to chase their dreams of winning a big race because if you happen to run a mediocre place, you'll never get a chance to be competitive again.

Just have the professionalism to drop a horse's rating when you realise you've overreacted on one solitary run and try and not drive competitive lifespans into the ground.

Looks like your were 100% , she has been dropped 8 points in one go 🔥

You think handicappers read this comment 👀

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Re: Ashford Castle wins as tote favorite 10 Nov 2021 How?

2 years 3 months ago
#832839
Bob Brogan wrote:
ICE MACHINE wrote:
On a whole I respect the MR system but unfortunately, as with all human driven initiatives, ego plays a major role when blatant errors are made.
Let's take Scented Mistress for example ... a measly 2 time winner racing off a 116. To put things into perspective, she finished 0.8 lengths behind Keep on Dancing a few runs back off a rating of 91. She then ran 3rd behind War of Athena in a 6 horse field and was immediately hiked up to the 116.

Meanwhile Keep on Dancing, the same horse that beat Scented Mistess has won twice since, including a Grade 2 beating MR 100 and 109 easily in the process - and she is now rated 92 ! 24 points lower than a horse she beat 3 runs ago.

To put things into perspective, since that War of Athena run, Scented Mistress has run 12 lengths back and then 6 lengths back and then unplaced in a Graduation Plate. Her rating has not been adjusted by 1 point !

It sheds more light on the reason why small owners are too petrified to chase their dreams of winning a big race because if you happen to run a mediocre place, you'll never get a chance to be competitive again.

Just have the professionalism to drop a horse's rating when you realise you've overreacted on one solitary run and try and not drive competitive lifespans into the ground.

Looks like your were 100% , she has been dropped 8 points in one go 🔥

You think handicappers read this comment 👀

Dropped 20 points in two runs.
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Re: Ashford Castle wins as tote favorite 10 Nov 2021 How?

2 years 3 months ago
#832840
Yip - she was dropped 8 points before the last run and since then a further 12 points. So all in all, 20 points in 2 runs when they weren't prepared to drop her 1 point in 4 runs.

Laughable
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Re: Ashford Castle wins as tote favorite 10 Nov 2021 How?

2 years 3 months ago - 2 years 3 months ago
#832862
error
Last edit: 2 years 3 months ago by Sylvester.

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