Merit Rating Update 26 April

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Merit Rating Update 26 April

1 year 11 months ago
#841035
• HSH Princess Charlene Empress Club Stakes (Grade 1)
PRINCESS CALLA (rated to win) remains unchanged on a merit rating of 121 following her success in the Grade 1 HSH Princess Charlene Stakes for fillies and mares on WFA terms over 1600m on the Turffontein standside track on Saturday 23 April. It was PRINCESS CALLA herself who was considered to make for the best line horse when assessing this event, hence her unchanged rating.

In rating the race this way, 6th placed SPRINKLES, 8th finisher BOLD FORTUNE and 11th placed SENTBYDESTINY all run to their marks, effectively making them line horses as well, leaving them unaltered on marks of 110, 105 and 103, respectively.

2nd placed UNDER YOUR SPELL was raised from 114 to 119, while the only other increase was for 5th finisher MARIGOLD HOTEL, who is raised from 104 to 110 to make her at least equal to 6th placed SPRINKLES.

There were ratings drops for three horses. 4th placed ZARINA is down from 119 to 116, SHE’S A KEEPER drops from 116 to 115, and lastly, CHAT CHING is down to 102 from 104.


• Racehorse Owners Association Spook Express Stakes (Listed)
OPERA GLASS (rated to win) has had her rating raised slightly from 90 to 91 after she won the Listed Racehorse Owners Association Spook Express Stakes for fillies and mares over 2400m at Turffontein on Saturday. It was the consistent 5th placed UN DEUX TROIS who was used as the line horse here, leaving her unchanged on a mark of 84.

The specific conditions of the race do not allow for an increase in the rating of any horse except the winner. As such, 2nd placed ARYAAM and 3rd finisher ONTHEVERGE remain unchanged on ratings of 75 and 77, respectively, despite actually achieving marks of 78 and 86, respectively.

LA LUVIA had been dropped from 89 to 84 subsequent to the publication of weights for this race and remains on a mark of 84 and as such there were no drops for any runner in this event.


• WSB Variety Club Mile (Grade 3)
GEM KING has had his rating raised from 94 to 98 after he captured the Grade 3 WSB Variety Club Mile for three-year-olds over 1600m on the summer course at Kenilworth on Sunday 24th April. It was runner-up FUTURE PRINCE who was considered to make for the most suitable line horse here, which leaves him unchanged on a mark of 97.

Aside from the winner, the only increase was for 3rd placed CHOLLIMA, who is up from 83 to 89. In rating the race this way, CHOLLIMA in fact runs to a mark of 94, but the Handicappers were reluctant to take this literally given CHOLLIMA’S overall career history and opted to raise him by just over half of the ostensible improvement shown.

There were no other ratings increases, but two horses were given a drop. 4th placed PACAYA is down from 108 to 105, while 6th finisher BARATHEON was dropped from 89 to 84 to make him lower than the 86-rated 5th placed SUGAR MOUNTAIN.


• WSB Sweet Chestnut Stakes (Listed)
YOUNG LOVE has had her rating raised from 84 to 95 after she captured the Listed Sweet Chestnut Stakes for three-year-old fillies over 1600m at Kenilworth on Sunday. It was 3rd placed SHE’S A RAINBOW who was used as the line horse here, which leaves her with an unaltered rating of 97.

In assessing the race this way, YOUNG LOVE in fact runs to a mark of 106, while runner-up GOING UP achieves a rating of 105. However, the Handicappers took cognizance of the fact that this was a slowly-run race which clearly suited horses racing up front – YOUNG LOVE having basically led from start to finish – also noted by the Handicappers was the fact that this Listed race produced a time that was 1.36 seconds slower than the Maiden Special Weights race run half an hour earlier and 2.58 slower than the WSB Variety Club Stakes, accordingly the first two finishers are in all likelihood flattered by the numbers they achieved. As such, it was decided to give the winner half the achieved adjustment, with 95 being half way between YOUNG LOVE’S previous rating of 84 and her ostensibly achieved 106. Runner-up GOING UP was treated in a similar manner and given a rating of 94, one pound lower than the winner (who beat her by 0.40 length at level weights).

There were no other increases, while the only drop was for 4th placed MARIA QUEROL, who is down from 100 to 96.


• WSB Scarlet Lady (Listed)
LYRICAL DANCE (rated to win) remains unchanged on a rating of 95 after her win in the Listed WSB Scarlet Lady for fillies and mares over 1800m on the turf track at Hollywoodbets Greyville on Friday evening April 22nd.

The Handicappers were unanimous in their opinion that 4th placed TWICETHEQUALITY made for the best line horse here, which leaves her unchanged on a mark of 80. In assessing the race this way, 7th finisher AQUAE SULIS runs to her mark and effectively makes her a line horse as well, leaving her unchanged on a mark of 87. In doing this, the winner (who was the best weighted horse in the race) only achieves a rating of 94, hence her unaltered rating.

There were ratings increases for two runners. 2nd placed JACQUELINE is up from 81 to 87, while 3rd finisher PRINCESS ANASTASIA is up from 78 to 81.
Three horses were given a drop. VICTORIA PAIGE is down from 93 to 90, SCENTED MISTRESS received the identical drop of 93 to 90, and lastly GLORY DAYS is down from 94 to 92.


• WSB Sledgehammer (Handicap (Listed)
MOUNT ANDERSON has had his rating raised from 98 to 104 following his easy success in the Listed Sledgehammer (handicap) over 1800m at Hollywoodbets Greyville on Friday. The Handicappers were of the opinion that both 3rd placed NATIVE TONGUE and 4th finisher GAINSFORD made for the ideal line horses, leaving them unchanged on ratings of 107 and 99, respectively.

Aside from the winner, the only other ratings increase was for 2nd placed ORIGAMI, who was 6 pounds or 3 kgs under sufferance at the weights and who accordingly goes up from 91 to 99.

No horses were given a ratings drop following this race.

Enquiries:
The Handicapping Team

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  • Frodo
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Re: Merit Rating Update 26 April

1 year 11 months ago
#841046
In the Empress Club, imo ratings too high - for me Princess Calla was always around 115 - we shall see :unsure:

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  • PeterD
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Re: Merit Rating Update 26 April

1 year 11 months ago - 1 year 11 months ago
#841057
Given her proximity to Captain’s Ransom on many occasions, I think you may be a bit harsh in your assessment of her. While I think that Zarina ran a fair bit below her best achieved when winning the Garden Province, I think that the 3yos that Princess C beat here are all very smart sorts.
Last edit: 1 year 11 months ago by PeterD.

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Re: Merit Rating Update 26 April

1 year 11 months ago
#841060
I have Princess Calla on a 118 rating for this race, she did a 117 in the Majorca and a 115 in the Prix Du Cap winning easily.
I used Sparkling Water as a line horse but on a 112 mr because she did 112 in 2 of her last 3 races.
Under Your Spell enjoyed the 1600m but I think she's better over 1400m, her two previous best ratings were over 1450m.
Zarina did run a bit below her normal ratings, 119 was to high for her and even the 116 now is wrong.

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  • Frodo
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Re: Merit Rating Update 26 April

1 year 11 months ago
#841071
While I of course respect the ratings of others (it is not set in stone anyway), for me in general I think our runners are rated too high; just because Captain's Ransom is arguably the best filly in the country, who is to say that she is in the same league as for example Kommetdieding and Jet Dark (and I have them lower than their official ratings as well); for me over the last season I have CR at around 118 and therefor Princess Calla at around 115 ... anyway to each his own :dry:

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