Hollywoodbets Durban July Log 31 May

naresh wrote: Airways Law has been officially supplemented. Opening quote of 33/1.

All the best to the Clansman who really liked this horse last week 😊


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I see Khumalo is declared to ride Sparkling Water, wonder if he is getting off Jet Dark.
Callan Murray has been declared on Al Muthana.

Contest wrote:

I see Khumalo is declared to ride Sparkling Water, wonder if he is getting off Jet Dark.
Callan Murray has been declared on Al Muthana.

double booked - do the trainers ask his agent who he's riding or do they just decide themselves to put him on? Nice for the punters not to know what he's chosen!

Probably explains the money for sparkling water then. 2nd favorite not too long ago. other than its second to Asterix, who himself is no horse chestnut, couldn't understand that level of support for a filly that really hasn't shown anything that exceptional yet 🤔🙄

So here's a follow up to my thoughts on Airways Law.
I get that there are a few doubters out there.. so here's my justification/clarification for getting involved and breaking my vow of silence.

There are substantial posts here, both recently and historically, on the value of Ante post bets.
And then there are the stories about Barney Curley et al.. They all go together in a romantic, but not very logical way.
Unless you are intimately involved in the plotting of a substantial coup, as an owner, or affiliated to a stable that has planned, the opportunity to enjoy such a 'coup, (for want of a better word), is almost impossible.
Yet most of us wistfully dream of being part of this.. well, I have on occasion.
Its those stories that got me involved as a 12 yr old.. and here we are 40 odd years later.
So, to those of you who have the time to waste still reading this. I have been a member of this forum for over a decade, but I don't post anymore because of those who have historically made things personal. Perhaps, I too have done that in the past. (apologies Bob )

Back to the plan.. as humans who gamble, nothing stokes the ego more than we want to be a part of sticking it to the bookies?
My first attempt at a 'touch' was not so long ago. By that I mean backing a horse at proper odds. I have had reasonable success backing good horses I really fancied for the race, such as Igugu, Greys Inn, Spanish Galliard, Gondolier and the like. And that's great, but as you get older, you try to get more cunning and shoot yourself in the foot more often than not. Being too clever. it should work the other way around, experience wise, but not for me.

2013 - I really liked the profile of Snaith's Run for It. Off a long break due to injury, it was mapped out for the July and I backed it before the run in the Drill Hall at 66/1 each-way. It ran third in the Drill Hall.. excellent prep. For a reasonable sum back then. The joy about such a bet is that if it comes off, you have very little exposure for great reward, even if the probability is not great. And the kudos... if only it won.
I also like this bet as I don't have to have a large bet come race day. Don't ask about the logic of how much do you waste in trying to pull this off, year in and year out. Most years I cant find an outsider, or I like something near the top of the boards.
It ran second - and I had a really nice e/w return.. but could have been brilliant. The thought, though, of pulling off a gamble had now bitten me.
That's where things went pear shaped - following year 2014. Well documented on this site.

I could not see Wylie Hall get beat. The more I got on at 50/1.. the more there seemed available.
I wasn't content with my ante post.. and took quartets... banker, you name it. I literally had White Line Fever...
(I later worked out this would have been a life-changing sum.) The exposure was quite big - but still remember most of it was at 50s and 40s.
To cut to the chase, I wanted to give up racing after 40 yrs.. I was so sick... gutted. But obviously, those of you with the sickness know that it wasn't long before I was looking, unsuccessfully for the next outsider.

Notice now how I fast forward to this year.
2022 - I was really impressed with Airways Law ability to quicken. And that it was Greyville suited, albeit the poly.
The last few runs I got on big time.. and couldn't believe the prices I was getting in relation to how well it moved up and won.
Now I know it beat nothing important going into Saturday. But you can only win, and win well.
Take Kommetjie.. he came into Durban, yes with a big reputation, but off only 4 wins. Now I know you don't want to compare... but before the Politician Stakes, what had he beat? The naysayers jumped on this when beaten in the KZN guineas and Daily News. He wasn't good enough, and Linebacker was all the rage last year on collateral form.
I'm not trying to compare the two on a status/ability level, just don't judge Airways too much on what he has beat.
My warped reasoning...

He is a 4 y-old that skipped the 3yold classics.. in my view genius. if your horse gets injured or is not yet mature enough, you get murdered on the ratings for placing or winning early for little reward.
So you come in with the right weight. You all know this, not trying to teach you to suck eggs, the trick is to get a high enough rating without bumping exposed Graded horses who cant win anything else because they are unrealistically rated.. Snaith has played this game a few times. You then need luck in getting through selection panel. This is critical, because there is an opportunity here in the July to play on emotions, as the conditions allow a panel to decide, unlike strict merit ratings. We've seen the interpretation swayed before. A bigger, hugely-invested owner does have more chance IMO

My reasoning, from my pocket obviously... is that I would rather see a younger, unexposed horse taking its chance than some of the tried and tests 'place' wannabees. But I'm invested now and am obviously biased.
How else do you get a horse in to the July as a lightly raced 4 y-old besides winning a low level preferential entry race, without getting whacked. The process also creates good debate about what could be... fairytale story...and lends to the excitement therefore positive headlines for event and sponsor.

So, back to the story. I need a shit load of good luck here. The odds are still stacked against this one. But,
We got the win Saturday, KrisG .. which gets the preferential consideration... we then needed the buy-in from the stable and it supplemented yesterday.... which was the next 'hail Mary' pass. That was a cool moment for me reading the article here... All we need now is more luck. Got to get in final field... which is the biggest hurdle.

Let me make it clear, I have no connection to the stable. I sat here for the week leading up to the Cup trial running through all sorts of theoretical, wondering if it would actually be entered.. then if it would accept. Hell, the July might never have been in the plan... Then they delayed naming the field last week.. and I had to wait. Suspense was eating me. Then the betting came out.... I expected 7s or 8s. Hello Baby! But it wasn't entered for the July..
Now what? What would Barney do?
At this stage I was growing the tobacco... hadn't even lit the pipe.
Then to phone and convince the bookies to give a theoretical price.. I dreaded that. Previous experience told me I was wasting my time.. ever tried just getting someone to answer the phone, or call you back?
But its not in the field.. I know, but can you give me a theoretical and add it to the market even though its not nominated. I almost didn't bother.
'Shout out' to the firm I called. You said you would call back and you did. Well done.

The narcissistic nature of Kenny Rogers in me believes it will all go pear shape and Airways Law wont get a run.
But, for the pure story of it, and the 1200/1 ante... the dream is still alive...
If only for a few more days. It's not life-changing money... but its the chase...
If it gets in and runs stone last.. so be it. But what a ride!

mr hawaii wrote:

Contest wrote:

I see Khumalo is declared to ride Sparkling Water, wonder if he is getting off Jet Dark.
Callan Murray has been declared on Al Muthana.

double booked - do the trainers ask his agent who he's riding or do they just decide themselves to put him on? Nice for the punters not to know what he's chosen!

Khumalo definitely riding JET DARK.

GOLD CIRCLE MEDIA RELEASE

Please note that trainer Paul Peter has scratched Netta, Flying Bull, Naval Guard, Sprinkles and Great Affair from the Hollywoodbets Durban July.

Ends

MDK no other runners on July day.

mr hawaii wrote:

Contest wrote:

I see Khumalo is declared to ride Sparkling Water, wonder if he is getting off Jet Dark.
Callan Murray has been declared on Al Muthana.

double booked - do the trainers ask his agent who he's riding or do they just decide themselves to put him on? Nice for the punters not to know what he's chosen!

Not too sure how this works - surely they need to confirm with the jock - I see v Niekerk has been declared on Warrior :ohmy: but that can't make the field - and I thought he would be a certainty to ride Linebacker

Frodo wrote:

mr hawaii wrote:

Contest wrote:

I see Khumalo is declared to ride Sparkling Water, wonder if he is getting off Jet Dark.
Callan Murray has been declared on Al Muthana.

double booked - do the trainers ask his agent who he's riding or do they just decide themselves to put him on? Nice for the punters not to know what he's chosen!

Not too sure how this works - surely they need to confirm with the jock - I see v Niekerk has been declared on Warrior :ohmy: but that can't make the field - and I thought he would be a certainty to ride Linebacker

Snaith gaming the system - If van Niekerk took the ride on Warrior ahead of Linebacker he would need to go back to the Academy as he can't read form..

The way it works is that if a jockey has a registered agent, he will call the agent and the agent will confirm or decline the ride. If he doesn't have an agent then you confirm a ride with the jockey him/her self. Once the ride is confirmed it is binding unless both parties decide otherwise. Once names are officially declared and in the racecard, they in 99% of the time cannot be changed without a valid reason.

why hasn't GAVIN LERENA been carded for KOMMETDIEDING ?

Could they think of replacing him with his PREVIOUS JOCKEY ? very odd indeed.