Hollywoodbets Durban July 2022 Final Field

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1 week 4 days ago #844340 by mr hawaii

Hoedspruit does not deserve inclusion ahead of Plattner runner!!

Gr 2 winner in January beating a 129 ,118, 119 - Sixth in the Met vs a Gr 3 winner(best in race was a 112)
If Nel wanted the July he would have found races to get his rating up (I doubt Nel thought the horse was good enough or he would not have only come in as a supplementary )- Just like Marina was cost a place in the July because her trainer did not place her correctly

THE MORE YOU STUDY FORM THE LUCKIER YOU GET
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1 week 4 days ago #844341 by Contest

Hoedspruit does not deserve inclusion ahead of Plattner runner!!

Gr 2 winner in January beating a 129 ,118, 119 - Sixth in the Met vs a Gr 3 winner(best in race was a 112)
If Nel wanted the July he would have found races to get his rating up (I doubt Nel thought the horse was good enough or he would not have only come in as a supplementary )- Just like Marina was cost a place in the July because her trainer did not place her correctly

A bit lucky to make it as a reserve runner 1.

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1 week 4 days ago #844342 by Bob Brogan

Rachel Vennikar will ride Red Saxon.

Riding overweight?

Delighted for her and i'm not being disrespectful, but it's a weird decision

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1 week 4 days ago - 1 week 4 days ago #844343 by Muhtiman

]Is a draw low really beneficial. Since the field was dropped to 18 in 2015. Only 3 winners out of 7 have come from a draw below 15.
2015 draw 6
2016 draw 18
2017 draw 8
2018 draw 15
2019 draw 8
2020 draw 17
2021 draw 18
Seems like to be drawn on the outside has it advantages of not getting mixed up in all the scrimmaging for spots early on.

.......the narrowing of the track has really changed the dynamics of how the race is run.... as prior to this and when handicapping was not yet tampered with.... I recall the most winners came from the 10 or 11 draw and carried around 55kg....:unsure... but for now the race is wide open but do like the 10 and 12 draw and the weight that goes with it and will throw the up country grinder Puerto Manzano as he can take any amount of knocks should he get into a scrum on the inside...;)

My idea of "help from above" is a sniper on the roof
and a higher power is a hell fire missile armed drone.
Last edit: 1 week 4 days ago by Muhtiman. Reason: ....a scrum

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1 week 4 days ago #844344 by naresh

Rachel Vennikar will ride Red Saxon.

Riding overweight?

Delighted for her and i'm not being disrespectful, but it's a weird decision

She needs to come down by half a kg. If not half a kg can matter over the distance. There was a big hullabaloo when Tellina weighed in more than its carded weight when placing. Time will tell.

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1 week 4 days ago - 1 week 4 days ago #844346 by Frodo

Rachel Vennikar will ride Red Saxon.

Riding overweight?

Delighted for her and i'm not being disrespectful, but it's a weird decision

I see in the Scotsville Computaform for tomorrow, her riding weight is listed at 53.5 kgs, so only 0.5 kg over; Mxothwa's riding weight is listed at 54 kgs - while Zapatillas is carded to carry 53 kgs :huh: :huh:

We all have our opinions on which horse should or should not be in the field; for me personally Second Base (118 and not a really convincing prep in the Jubilee) is the lucky one - I'm sure the connections of Russian Rock (120) are pretty miffed - rated 120 and a good prep in the Challenge - so hard to follow the logic of him not getting the nod ahead of SB :unsure:

Also as I understand the conditions, Airways Law qualified as a 'preferential entry' - so again imo could be counted unlucky to not get in ahead of SB - Flying Carpet as a 'preferential entry' made the cut, but Airways Law not :unsure:

The next question to be solved is 'where will the pace come from' - Pomp and Power ?
Last edit: 1 week 4 days ago by Frodo.

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1 week 4 days ago #844347 by Frodo

]Is a draw low really beneficial. Since the field was dropped to 18 in 2015. Only 3 winners out of 7 have come from a draw below 15.
2015 draw 6
2016 draw 18
2017 draw 8
2018 draw 15
2019 draw 8
2020 draw 17
2021 draw 18
Seems like to be drawn on the outside has it advantages of not getting mixed up in all the scrimmaging for spots early on.

.......the narrowing of the track has really changed the dynamics of how the race is run.... as prior to this and when handicapping was not yet tampered with.... I recall the most winners came from the 10 or 11 draw and carried around 55kg....:unsure... but for now the race is wide open but do like the 10 and 12 draw and the weight that goes with it and will throw the up country grinder Puerto Manzano as he can take any amount of knocks should he get into a scrum on the inside...;)

Imo the draw is not that big an issue - the pace (and luck in running) could be more of a deciding factor; as far as Puerto Manzano goes, for me he is not suited to Greyville - but I have been wrong before a couple of times B) B)

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1 week 4 days ago #844349 by Muhtiman
......yes Greyville not a course for plodders but for the fleet footed.....but I like his ped and the fact that Werners never chucked it in when the infamous inquiry came about with his run to the stablemate on debut....:blink:

My idea of "help from above" is a sniper on the roof
and a higher power is a hell fire missile armed drone.

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1 week 4 days ago #844351 by mr hawaii

Rachel Vennikar will ride Red Saxon.

Riding overweight?

Delighted for her and i'm not being disrespectful, but it's a weird decision

I see in the Scotsville Computaform for tomorrow, her riding weight is listed at 53.5 kgs, so only 0.5 kg over; Mxothwa's riding weight is listed at 54 kgs - while Zapatillas is carded to carry 53 kgs :huh: :huh:

We all have our opinions on which horse should or should not be in the field; for me personally Second Base (118 and not a really convincing prep in the Jubilee) is the lucky one - I'm sure the connections of Russian Rock (120) are pretty miffed - rated 120 and a good prep in the Challenge - so hard to follow the logic of him not getting the nod ahead of SB :unsure:

Also as I understand the conditions, Airways Law qualified as a 'preferential entry' - so again imo could be counted unlucky to not get in ahead of SB - Flying Carpet as a 'preferential entry' made the cut, but Airways Law not :unsure:

The next question to be solved is 'where will the pace come from' - Pomp and Power ?

Second Base won a Gr2 2000m and a Gr 3 1800m - Russian Rock won a Graduation and has run 3 times over 1800m plus without a place - I doubt either could win and a place at best for Second Base - Kannemeyer did not even nom for the consolation but rather a 1600m on the day .

THE MORE YOU STUDY FORM THE LUCKIER YOU GET

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1 week 4 days ago #844352 by ElvisisKing
I can see the logic in Joe putting on Rachael Venniker.

she know Greyville like the back of her hand and will know the course far better than J.Mariba who has probably had a handful of winners there.

my stats show Rachael + / - 70 wins.... J.Mariba + / - 14 wins.

it's a total no brainer.... even if she carries overweight.

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1 week 4 days ago #844356 by Frodo

Rachel Vennikar will ride Red Saxon.

Riding overweight?

Delighted for her and i'm not being disrespectful, but it's a weird decision

I see in the Scotsville Computaform for tomorrow, her riding weight is listed at 53.5 kgs, so only 0.5 kg over; Mxothwa's riding weight is listed at 54 kgs - while Zapatillas is carded to carry 53 kgs :huh: :huh:

We all have our opinions on which horse should or should not be in the field; for me personally Second Base (118 and not a really convincing prep in the Jubilee) is the lucky one - I'm sure the connections of Russian Rock (120) are pretty miffed - rated 120 and a good prep in the Challenge - so hard to follow the logic of him not getting the nod ahead of SB :unsure:

Also as I understand the conditions, Airways Law qualified as a 'preferential entry' - so again imo could be counted unlucky to not get in ahead of SB - Flying Carpet as a 'preferential entry' made the cut, but Airways Law not :unsure:

The next question to be solved is 'where will the pace come from' - Pomp and Power ?

Second Base won a Gr2 2000m and a Gr 3 1800m - Russian Rock won a Graduation and has run 3 times over 1800m plus without a place - I doubt either could win and a place at best for Second Base - Kannemeyer did not even nom for the consolation but rather a 1600m on the day .

We could argue till the cows come home - imo the most convincing argument you raise is that the stable may feel he is suspect over the trip - ability wise I think (despite the MR which favors RR) there is not much between them - last year in the Daily News SB beat RR by 0.3 lengths (with Flying Carpet behind both)

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1 week 4 days ago #844357 by Contest

Rachel Vennikar will ride Red Saxon.

Riding overweight?

Delighted for her and i'm not being disrespectful, but it's a weird decision

I see in the Scotsville Computaform for tomorrow, her riding weight is listed at 53.5 kgs, so only 0.5 kg over; Mxothwa's riding weight is listed at 54 kgs - while Zapatillas is carded to carry 53 kgs :huh: :huh:

We all have our opinions on which horse should or should not be in the field; for me personally Second Base (118 and not a really convincing prep in the Jubilee) is the lucky one - I'm sure the connections of Russian Rock (120) are pretty miffed - rated 120 and a good prep in the Challenge - so hard to follow the logic of him not getting the nod ahead of SB :unsure:

Also as I understand the conditions, Airways Law qualified as a 'preferential entry' - so again imo could be counted unlucky to not get in ahead of SB - Flying Carpet as a 'preferential entry' made the cut, but Airways Law not :unsure:

The next question to be solved is 'where will the pace come from' - Pomp and Power ?

Second Base won a Gr2 2000m and a Gr 3 1800m - Russian Rock won a Graduation and has run 3 times over 1800m plus without a place - I doubt either could win and a place at best for Second Base - Kannemeyer did not even nom for the consolation but rather a 1600m on the day .

We could argue till the cows come home - imo the most convincing argument you raise is that the stable may feel he is suspect over the trip - ability wise I think (despite the MR which favors RR) there is not much between them - last year in the Daily News SB beat RR by 0.3 lengths (with Flying Carpet behind both)

Russian Rock would have carried 63.5 in the consolation race, would be too much to carry over that distance. I'm sure he will on in the Champions Cup at the end of July.
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