Bettingmyway on the July

HOLLYWOODBETS DURBAN JULY – 02/07/2022
by Warren Grobler|Published 27 Jun 2022 4:34 pm
This year sees the 126th running of ‘The July’, now sponsored by Hollywoodbets and run over 2200m.

This is how I see this years race.

In order to help myself to try and find this year’s winner I’ve done an in depth analysis of past results and below are some of the details you may find interesting.

THE 125 YEARS OF THE JULY – WINNERS BY AGE

2 YR OLDS (1) – LAST WINNER NOBLEMAN 1911

3 YR OLDS (36) – LAST WINNER KOMMETDIEDING 2021

4 YR OLDS (38) – LAST WINNER BELGARION 2020

5 YR OLDS (19) – LAST WINNER POCKET POWER 2008 (dead heat)

6 YR OLDS (4) – LAST WINNER BEAU ART 1984

7 YR OLDS (3) – LAST WINNER ST SEIROL 1945

SINCE 1986 (37 TOTAL INCLUDING THE DEAD HEAT)

3 YR OLDS (19)

4 YR OLDS (14)

5 YR OLDS (4)

No other age group has won in this period.

3 YR OLDS BY RATING COMING INTO THE JULY IN RECENT YEARS, TO GET AN IDEA OF CROP STRENGTH – 10 POINTS ADDED TO YEARS PRIOR TO THE 10 POINT RATINGS INCREASE (so added for 2018 and 2017)

2022: SAFE PASSAGE 122 ; POMP AND POWER 118 ; ZAPATILLAS 118 ; ARAGOSTA 118 ; RED SAXON 118

2021: LINEBACKER 124 (2ND) ; RASCALLION 123 (5TH) ; KOMMETDIEDING 122 (WON)

2020: GOT THE GREENLIGHT 118 (2nd) ; SHANGO 116 (9TH) ; GOLDEN DUCAT 115 (4TH) ; PADRE PIO 115 (16TH)

2019: RETURN FLIGHT 119 (16TH) ; TWIST OF FATE 117 (3RD) ; BARAHIN 112 (10TH) ;

2018: DO IT AGAIN 120 (WON) ; MAJESTIC MAMBO 120 (4TH) ; FIORELLA 118 (7TH) ; WHITE RIVER 118 (16TH)

2017: EDICT OF NANTES 117 (3RD) ; AL SAHEM 116 (2ND) ; SAFE HARBOUR 113 (17TH)

3 year olds have won 2 of the last 5 runnings of the July, with the other 3 being won by 4 year olds. In fact 4 year olds have won 6 out of the last 9 runnings of the race, with 3 year olds winning 3 of them. Of the two 3 year olds to win in the last 5 years, both were rated 120 or more. The years the 3 year olds never won they had ratings below 120. The 3 year olds have filled minor placings when rated below 120, but been unable to win. You can draw your own conclusions from this.


THIS YEAR’S RACE:

At the time of ‘The July’ last year I was very much of the opinion that the winner would be a 3 year old. The crop looked superior to previous years from early on in the season, and the ratings the three highest rated 3 year olds brought into the race as a whole were quite a few points higher than the previous 4 years. The 3 year olds ran 1st,2nd and 5th, so that assessment was vindicated.

This year the highest 3 year old is #10 SAFE PASSAGE, rated 122. There are four 3 year olds rated 118.

So what does that mean? These are my conclusions:

Last years 3 year olds (obviously this year’s 4 year olds) were a superior crop. This years 3 year old crop led by SAFE PASSAGE are a few points inferior to them, although they certainly aren’t as inferior as I thought they might be from results early in the season. Nevertheless, I’d still prefer to back a well-weighted 4 year old to any of the 3 year olds. That’s where my bet comes in.

#3 HOEDSPRUIT (14-1) has proven to be inferior to the very best of his generation by about 4,25 lengths. He between 3 and 4,25 lengths inferior to all of #4 LINEBACKER, #JET DARK and #13 KOMMETDIEDING on various occasions. The difference this time, is that he has carried level weights with those horses each time he’s met them, whilst on this occasion he receives 5 kgs from #4 LINEBACKER and 6,5 kgs from #9 JET DARK and #13 KOMMETDIEDING. Over 2200m that sort of weight difference will make him a massive runner. He is also versatile in his running style, so he could sit close to the pace from his draw in a slowly run race, but he also has a turn-of-foot in a fast run race. In terms of finding a horse potentially well-handicapped, he is the standout in the race. He didn’t receive a penalty in the Cape Met after finishing just out of the placings in 6th at level weights. The 4 yr olds that beat him there are rated 129, 129 and 126 respectively, so he’s rating should definitely be a minimum of 121 relative to theirs’ based on how they finished. That leaves him very well-in here off just 53,5 kgs rated at 116. He is definitely my PLAY OF THE RACE AT 14-1 and 2-1 for 4 places.

The only 3 year old I like is #10 SAFE PASSAGE (9-2). His only defeat in his last 7 starts came when he ran 5 points below his best. The stable has said he was sick subsequent to that defeat, and that they suspect he could possibly have been incubating a virus. All speculation, but on form it was surprising as he’d looked very decent prior to that shock defeat. The stable said he was not at his best before his last start, yet he won going away from his field in the Daily News, which is always a very good pointer as to the chances of a 3 year old in ‘The July’. I doubt the 1,5 kg penalty he picked up for that win will be sufficient for those that finished behind him to reverse the form. I’ve maintained aIl season that I don’t think any of the Cape 3 year olds could win this race. If a 3 year old wins this year I expect it to be him.

#2 DO IT AGAIN (12-1) has a tremendous record in this race and he’s never run out of the first 4 in his 12 races at this course. He thrives when he travels to Natal and he looks to run well again this year. He’s 7 years old now though and that statistic is very much a negative. No 7 year old has won since 1945, so in all probability he’ll run very well without winning.

#12 SPARKLING WATER (7-1) could be nicely weighted as a 4 year old with only 53,5 kgs, but I don’t see any value in her price at 7-1, so whilst she could win I couldn’t back her.

#4 LINEBACKER (9-2) ran second last year as a 3 year old when I liked him to win. He had every chance that day, but he just seemed to run out of stamina over the last 100m. As a joint favourite with 58,5 kgs this time I don’t see in any value in his price. He could win for sure, but I don’t really fancy him this time.

Last year’s winner #13 KOMMETDIEDING (16-1) has had an outstanding career to date, and winners with a big weight have become more prevalent since the difference between top weight (60kgs) and bottom weight (53 kgs for colts/geldings and 52 kgs for fillies) has been reduced to a maximum of 8 kgs. It has made it easier for top weights to win. Whilst I therefore don’t discount his chances, I don’t like the fact that he travelled to Gauteng for their feature races in recent months. He clearly did not thrive there and ran well below his best. This race is seldom won by a horse that hasn’t had the perfect preparation and I don’t like him as a result.

If the winner isn’t one of those already mentioned then I can’t find it.

I make #3 HOEDSPRUIT a really good each way play at 14-1 and he’s my fancy for this year.

SELECTION: 1ST: #3 HOEDSPRUIT


2ND : #10 SAFE PASSAGE

3RD: #2 DO IT AGAIN

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Longtime Warren, thanks

Cheers JAP much appreciated 👍

very enjoyable read and nice assessment. thanks

My opinion hasn't changed since my original post, although I'm more adamant than I was before that Safe Passage will be the first 3 year old past the post. He comfortably had the measure of his rivals in the Daily News and he just got stronger as the race went on. They were all fitter than he was, it just seems implausible for any of them to turn that form around despite him carrying an extra 1,5kgs for that win.

I still think Hoedspruit will go very well and that he's the best weighted runner in the race.

Sparkling Water is not one I fancy, but she's nicely in near the bottom of the weights and the 18-1 now available if far more enticing than the 7-1 when I first posted this thread.

I've been trying to find 'the spook' to fill the frame, but I haven't found anything to fancy.

My quartet is easy to catch

3-10-2/F

Jackpot 2:

4,9/1,2,3,4,7,10,11,12,13,14/3,10/8

4,9/4,5,12,13,14/3,10/8

how long since a 4yr old COLT (or older entire) won the July? I think it may be Flaming Rock - sometimes these good 3yr old colts battle as they mature into stallions