Durbanville - 17/09/2022

  • Justanotherpunter
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Durbanville - 17/09/2022

1 year 6 months ago - 1 year 6 months ago
#850600
A competitive card with no obvious standouts for me.

Race 6: Middle Stakes 1250m

#8 SHIFTING PATH has shown he’s only a few lengths inferior to the best the Cape has to offer (of his generation) and he looks nicely in here with 54kgs. He wasn’t beaten far in the Langerman at level weights and that form is holding up extremely well. His best run to date in terms of ratings has been at this trip, so he’s first choice. #2 ALL LIT UP has a poor strike rate and I don’t punt these types, but he looks well-in here off 52 kgs from a 2 draw. #1 STREET LAW was off the track for 7 months after suffering a career threatening injury. He was heavily supported on debut when winning and he could still have plenty more to come if he can show his best ability.

SELECTION: 8-2-1

Based on Track Talk, Marshall definitely prefers #1 to #8 (needs the run).

Check out the rest of my blog on:

bettingmyway.com/2022/09/16/durbanville-17-09-2022/
Last edit: 1 year 6 months ago by Justanotherpunter.

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  • bayern
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Re: Durbanville - 17/09/2022

1 year 6 months ago
#850605
I have played a trixie :-

R3) Hear My Voice X (R4) Future Turn X (R5) Itsrainingwilliam.

Hear My Voice, prepared to draw a line through the last run. Being a Special Weights race, off the weight, she must be in with a shout, the betting would suggest the same, whether a bit short or not in the betting.

Future Turn, last chance saloon, this horse has costs me some. Hoping the step up in distance is the answer. Popping Crease is the danger.

Itsrainingwilliam, despite what the market suggests, feel the value lies with Itsrainingwilliam, they are after-all both one time winners, and there is a 4.0kg difference at the weights. It must be noted Fourie cannot make the weight on Itsrainingwilliam. Itsrainingwilliam could be better than rated.
Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.

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Re: Durbanville - 17/09/2022

1 year 6 months ago - 1 year 6 months ago
#850627
Marshall expects a big run R4 #5
Last edit: 1 year 6 months ago by Justanotherpunter.
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  • Bob Brogan
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Re: Durbanville - 17/09/2022

1 year 6 months ago
#850636

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Re: Durbanville - 17/09/2022

1 year 6 months ago
#850637

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Re: Durbanville - 17/09/2022

1 year 6 months ago
#850638

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Re: Durbanville - 17/09/2022

1 year 6 months ago
#850643

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Re: Durbanville - 17/09/2022

1 year 6 months ago
#850644

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  • PeterD
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Re: Durbanville - 17/09/2022

1 year 6 months ago
#850653
Overcast and cool with a light breeze. Course will be running fast.
Race 1 First Timers could make this tricky, but Max the Otter looks a promising sort. Tough draw to overcome and Aldo puts up 1kg overweight. Stratospheric solid form but an even worse draw. Autumn Moon gets weight from these two, and is a year older, so can cause the upset.
race 2 I'll Slip Away has a competitive weight and a nice draw and is the one to beat. Youreyesonly poor in the wet last time but carries no weight from a nice draw and could make the exotics pay at long odds. Quite a few lightly raced that could improve.
Our filly, Sunlit From Heaven makes her debut. Has taken a while to come to hand and will probably need this run.
race 3 Hear My Voice has fair form and is the one to beat in a weak field that might throw an upset. Gold Beach has awful form her last 3, but no weight and her debut run was not too bad. Camika also no weight. Red Kite has not run for a while and comes back in trip but could surprise at the weights running fresh.
Our filly Everlasting gets a nice draw and we are hoping for a much better effort.
Race 4 Future Turn has been very costly to follow, but should get it right today. Impetuous can improve a lot on a fair debut, and Popping Crease has a shout.
Race 5 Some smart 3 yos take on some older hard knockers, and its not clear which ones will be fit after breaks. Yellowporcheroad my selection to beat Itsrainingwilliam and hammies Hero.
race 6 An open race. Shifting Path and Street Outlaw are useful 3yos, but respect for Tchaikovsky which keeps on winning. Silver Falcon carries a big weight but is capable, and All Lit Up comes in with no weight and a good draw.
race 7. Another competitive race with some horses coming off breaks. African Rain is the class horse but a big weight. I like Giacomo Puccini and Ambiorix at the weights.
race 8 Competitive handicap, but I'm firmly in the camp of Nothingelsematters which is an improving young stayer and did not get overly punished for his maiden win.

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  • Frodo
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Re: Durbanville - 17/09/2022

1 year 6 months ago
#850655
As mentioned by a few, this is a VERY competitive card - thoughts ....

R1: If Max the Otter fluffs his lines, many can take advantage, including the debutante Champion Warrior - longshot Master Point worth throwing into the trifectas and quartets imo

R2: 3 horse race according to the betting, but I'm not convinced; Amethystic at these weights big value imo

R3: Another seemingly moderate lot; again at the weights Camika could be a player

R4: Future Turn does look hard to beat; Impetuous stable confidence, but has to show that on the track; all of Global Movement, Popping Crease, Run Rudolph Run and Senhora Victoria in form, so if FT does not win, any of those could take advantage imo

R5: Yellowporcheroad obvious ability, but coming back after a break, so vulnerable imo; Itsrainingwilliam good form and off bottom weight should be a big player imo; Silvano's Dasher another not to be ignored but needs to give Itsrainingwilliam 6 kgs; Hammies Hero finding support in the market but imo has something to find at level weights with Itsrainingwilliam

R6: Middle Stakes, but most are closely matched at the weights and quite a few coming off a break, so not sure what to expect; safest option seem to be Street Outlaw, but no real confidence

R7: Pinnacle Stakes, but again quite a few coming off a break and most seem better over a little more ground, so tactics could win the day; first two choices for me are Irish Morning and African Rain, but no real surprise if any of them win

R8: Well where is that pin - I found it hard to even pick 5 horses for the PA

Enjoy B)

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  • Ptahotep
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Re: Durbanville - 17/09/2022

1 year 6 months ago
#850656
Here are my software ratings for Durbanville ranked based on total POINTS. It always surprises me though, sometimes, to see how the projected SPEED over distance ratings perform. That said, it is not always the fastest horse that wins the race, as we know. There are various factors that influence the outcome such as pace of the race, position, interference etc. I have a PACE scenario too which notes anomalies such as a LONE EARLY horse that may wire the field on a loose lead or a LONE CLOSER in a highly pressured race with lots of early speed. In an unpressured race the final 400m to finish speeds come into play.

The ratings occasionally throw up some unusual horses ranked near the top or on top, so, I usually throw a few bob their way and include them in swingers etc.

I have asterisked potential value opportunities.

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  • bayern
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Re: Durbanville - 17/09/2022

1 year 6 months ago
#850657
Champion Warrior, smart win jock didn't use the whip, keep an eye on this one
Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.

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