CAPE DERBY FINAL FIELD

Should the race be cancelled?

Seven runners for Justin but unlikely to win the Derby

.....very poor field....even the range bound fav likely to doddle it....and will land up a big July contender but will get a lesson on pace in that race.....:S .

I must be looking at some other race.


Sent from my Ferrari using Tapatalk

Muhtiman wrote:

.....very poor field....even the range bound fav likely to doddle it....and will land up a big July contender but will get a lesson on pace in that race.....:S .

How would CD be weighted in the July - I assume there is still a max weight that 3yr-olds are allotted - otherwise with that rating he would be close to the top-weight ?

Frodo wrote:

Muhtiman wrote:

.....very poor field....even the range bound fav likely to doddle it....and will land up a big July contender but will get a lesson on pace in that race.....:S .

How would CD be weighted in the July - I assume there is still a max weight that 3yr-olds are allotted - otherwise with that rating he would be close to the top-weight ?

Maximum weight 3yo colts and geldings is 57kgs
3yo fillies is 56kgs

I think Al Muthana is the only horse rated higher than Charles Dickens. Puerto Manzano maybe close to Charles Dickens.

Hypothetically, if the above two do not run in the July and Charles Dickens take it chances it could go up 60kgs because it will be the highest rated horse and everything has to raised proportionally to that when the weights are declared.

So then (given current ratings) Cousin Casey will receive around 4 kgs from CD - I know there is still 4 and a half months to go - and one can't be sure who will run, but for me I have put a few shekels on Waterberry Lane (should also come in at around 53 /54 kg) who is at ridiculous odds of 150/1 :ohmy:

Will be in town and ready tealing for Triple time.

i had a few questions and observations

What is SPLASHOUT?? Is it a brand, a slogan , a nightclub?
The fact that no Gauteng trainers sent a runner must be a little disappointing but perhaps this meeting is to late in the year.
The derby is a show of force by Snaith and Nic Jonsson. Gonna be interesting to see what Snaith yards tactics will be.

......Snaith should try run CD off his feet....that ped is suspect around 10 furlongs but CD could win it anyway ....as that field is not quiet up to scratch.....:S

Muhtiman wrote:

......Snaith should try run CD off his feet....that ped is suspect around 10 furlongs but CD could win it anyway ....as that field is not quiet up to scratch.....:S

On the dam side and what it has produced so far it should get 2000m.

Somerset Maugham its full brother has won over 2000m
Charles ran second in the Cape Derby with the same pedigree
Steinbeck has won over 1800m.
Its dam won over 2200m beating Do You Remember who won the Woolavington and placed in the July. Interestingly Do You Remember has produced a runner that has won over dirt in America.

.....full sibling Charles should have had a better race record if he had been kept to a mile....and all due respect to the trainer but he was always under pressure with this 6ZAR BAR so called star...as training for the Magnier connections is no walk in the park...and because he ran 2nd to Attie in the 2019 Cape Derby and that farcical KZN Donkey Derby he was imvho no stayer either....and I know the dam well as a part owner and big past contributor here the late Warren Laird and I discussed her at length.....and yes the staying ability of the dam was never in question and the mitochondrial trial is centered in the dam line however Trippi progeny is stamped very soundly by his prepotency and genetic dominance and therefore very few of his progeny got the ground....one that immediately springs to mind was Deo Juvente but I do not like those odds....and although CD could win the Derby on his coconut does not mean he can stay....he is just way better than the rest of that field.... and I for one will be going very wide ...:whistle: