Why is it that the success rate in horse racing is limited to 33%?.

  • anandbasappa
  • anandbasappa's Avatar Topic Author
  • Junior Member
  • Junior Member
  • Posts: 86
  • Thanks: 55

Why is it that the success rate in horse racing is limited to 33%?.

1 year 3 days ago
#867757
Hello Everyone

Want everyone to contribute their thoughts and opinions.
If you wish to enjoy the sunshine then you must learn to put up with a few blisters.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • anandbasappa
  • anandbasappa's Avatar Topic Author
  • Junior Member
  • Junior Member
  • Posts: 86
  • Thanks: 55

Re: Why is it that the success rate in horse racing is limited to 33%?.

1 year 3 days ago
#867758
There was a study done by scientists on the accuracy of the human brain getting it right all the time and the findings of the study was that the human brain can get it right by 80% only all the time and it can never go beyond that percentage no matter what the situation. I don't have a clue as to who conducted this study, when, where and all other details associated with it but the findings did strike a chord with me and thought it will be helpful if shared here.

Now in horse racing we look at many or rather various parameters in order to come to a conclusion on which horse to take a bet on. Generally we look at five basic parameters.

01) The distance of the race.

02) Prior form of the horse.

03) Odds offered in the betting market.

04) Jockey booked to ride (whether hot or cold).

05) Conditioner of the horse (whether hot or cold).

The first four are common to most of the punters and the fifth one can be replaced with another parameter if desired as there are a plethora of them.

In each step if the findings of the study is applied then this is what happens.

01) You are right by 80%.

02) You are right by 80% of that 80% which is 64%.

03) You are right by 80% of that 64% which is 51.2%.

04) You are right by 80% of that 51.2% which is 40.96%.

05) You are right by 80% of that 40.96% which is 32.76% which roughly translates to 33%.

This also proves the global fact that out of 3 favourites only 1 comes home and the other 2 bite the dust. Armed with this knowledge book makers make merry and we punters think we are more knowledgeable and try to beat them at this game. It's not that its not possible to come up trumps but there has to be a deep understanding of this universal logic and there has to be a way in which one can overcome all odds and emerge victorious. For example if I say instead of looking at 5 basic parameters why not look at 1 or 2 so that the chances of getting it right is increased, just a proposition.

We look at many other parameters like breeding, course and distance suitability, weight carried by the horse, draw number bagged, collateral formlines, head to head data, conditioner/jockey combo and many other, sometimes we try to get that "inside info" as well. So more the number of parameters lesser will be the chances of getting it right as per the findings of that study. And this study was not related to horse racing at all, it was a general study done to assess the capability of the human brain in any given situation.
If you wish to enjoy the sunshine then you must learn to put up with a few blisters.
The following user(s) said Thank You: Elmo

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Dave Scott
  • Dave Scott's Avatar
  • Administrator
  • Administrator
  • Posts: 42546
  • Thanks: 3048

Re: Why is it that the success rate in horse racing is limited to 33%?.

1 year 2 days ago
#867771
On average one in every 3 favs win.

You just have to choose the right ones and obviously odds come into play.

Good Punting
The following user(s) said Thank You: anandbasappa

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Mac
  • Mac's Avatar
  • Platinum Member
  • Platinum Member
  • Posts: 12040
  • Thanks: 939

Re: Re:Why is it that the success rate in horse racing is limited to 33%?.

1 year 2 days ago
#867775
Your average SR of 33% is applicable to an average field of say 10. You would return a much higher SR if you used fields of only four (for example) in your analysis. Furthermore, you you would return an even higher SR if you filtered out handicap races from your fields of four. Though I doubt you would approach even close to 80%.


Sent from my Ferrari using Tapatalk
The following user(s) said Thank You: anandbasappa

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Elmo
  • Elmo's Avatar
  • Senior Member
  • Senior Member
  • Posts: 188
  • Thanks: 30

Re: Why is it that the success rate in horse racing is limited to 33%?.

1 year 2 days ago
#867777
There was a study done by scientists on the accuracy of the human brain getting it right all the time and the findings of the study was that the human brain can get it right by 80% only all the time and it can never go beyond that percentage no matter what the situation. I don't have a clue as to who conducted this study, when, where and all other details associated with it but the findings did strike a chord with me and thought it will be helpful if shared here.

Now in horse racing we look at many or rather various parameters in order to come to a conclusion on which horse to take a bet on. Generally we look at five basic parameters.

01) The distance of the race.

02) Prior form of the horse.

03) Odds offered in the betting market.

04) Jockey booked to ride (whether hot or cold).

05) Conditioner of the horse (whether hot or cold).

The first four are common to most of the punters and the fifth one can be replaced with another parameter if desired as there are a plethora of them.

In each step if the findings of the study is applied then this is what happens.

01) You are right by 80%.

02) You are right by 80% of that 80% which is 64%.

03) You are right by 80% of that 64% which is 51.2%.

04) You are right by 80% of that 51.2% which is 40.96%.

05) You are right by 80% of that 40.96% which is 32.76% which roughly translates to 33%.

This also proves the global fact that out of 3 favourites only 1 comes home and the other 2 bite the dust. Armed with this knowledge book makers make merry and we punters think we are more knowledgeable and try to beat them at this game. It's not that its not possible to come up trumps but there has to be a deep understanding of this universal logic and there has to be a way in which one can overcome all odds and emerge victorious. For example if I say instead of looking at 5 basic parameters why not look at 1 or 2 so that the chances of getting it right is increased, just a proposition.

We look at many other parameters like breeding, course and distance suitability, weight carried by the horse, draw number bagged, collateral formlines, head to head data, conditioner/jockey combo and many other, sometimes we try to get that "inside info" as well. So more the number of parameters lesser will be the chances of getting it right as per the findings of that study. And this study was not related to horse racing at all, it was a general study done to assess the capability of the human brain in any given situation.
6. Gut feeling
7.Lucky numbers
Odds are in bookmakers favour but we love the game and will keep batting :) :)
The following user(s) said Thank You: anandbasappa

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Time to create page: 0.324 seconds