1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

zef
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

1 week 5 days ago

#898752

I see formgrids.info has an entry for the Tony Peter yard, The Equator. Not too sure what to make of it.

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bayern
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

1 week 5 days ago - 1 week 5 days ago

#898756

Quite honestly, every trainer acknowledges the July is a tough race to win, no one is under the illusion any race is easy to win. That said, three years olds have won this race before and from wide draws.

Said before, if they have any doubt about running 8 on 18 in the July, bar injury, why not declare it a doubtful starter. This way, as a punter, one can decide whether to continue backing it and risk losing their money, if withdrawn.

If this is all hot air, then open an Interbet account and take their price. Can advise, just visited Interbet's ante-post July betting (right now go in and check), they have 8 on 18 it at 5/2, the same as Hollywood and WSB.

Can advise they have Sail The Seas at 20/1, now i'd be very wary punting this on for the July, bookies very seldom get it wrong.

Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.

Last edit: 1 week 5 days ago by bayern.

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Frodo
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

1 week 5 days ago

#898757

I see (as expected) Okavango was increased to 120 and Native Ruler to 119 (when is the next log due ?) - this means that bar any shenenigans where for example runners like See It Again, Oriental Charm, Royal Victory and Cousin Casey were taken out (and the weights are 'moved up' so that 8 on 18 is top weight), 8 on 18 will carry 57 kgs - and only have to give (if my sums are correct) Okavango 2,5 kgs and Native Ruler 3 kgs

What would happen if See It Again is taken out (unlikely imo) after declarations and for instance Oriental Charm or Royal Victory becomes top weight at 60 kgs - will 8 on 18 be increased to carry 60 kgs as well - or would the 3-yr olds still be maxed at 57 kgs ?

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Kaotik PA Punter
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

1 week 5 days ago

#898758

Hi Frodo, u have it as I understand it.

No way See it Again is taken out (same owner as 8/18) and his 3rd and maybe last July run, as this allows 8/18 a guarantee 57kgs, the handicapping discretion really comes in if the top weight is taken out.

What is clear to me is that the 3yr olds won't catch 8/18 over the distance, as they either need shorter or further and not weighted well in comparison to him. What is scary is that he seems to enjoy greyville, as 10 m more in Guinness over 1600m, without much work and a come back from a rest he would of won. And Saterday the jockey did less work on him than a training gallop. It's really scary what's to come from this champ.

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Charl
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

1 week 5 days ago

#898776

My understanding is that, with the current ratings, 8on18 will only carry more weight if See It Again, Cousin Casey, Royal Victory, and Oriental Charm are withdrawn, which would result in Purple Pitcher and Gladiatorian carrying 59kg. In that case, Purple Pitcher and Gladiatorian would move up to 60kg, and 8on18 would carry 58kg.

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Charl
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

1 week 5 days ago - 1 week 5 days ago

#898777

Horse KG MR
EIGHT ON EIGHTEEN 57 129
ORIENTAL CHARM 59 125
SAIL THE SEAS 57 127
SEE IT AGAIN 60 127
ROYAL VICTORY 59 125
CONFEDERATE 53.5 118
PURPLE PITCHER 58 123
ATTICUS FINCH 57 121
GLADATORIAN 58 123
COUSIN CASEY 59 125
LEGEND OF ARTHUR 53 117
FIERY PEGASUS 54 119
SPUMANTE DOLCE 53 117
SELUKWE 54 111
WILD INTENT 53 116
THE REAL PRINCE 56.5 120
MUCHO DINERO 54 115
PACAYA 55.5 118
FUTURE SWING 55 117
POMODORO'S JET 55.5 118

Last edit: 1 week 5 days ago by Charl.

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bayern
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

1 week 5 days ago

#898781

If Charl's weights are correct, then the connections of 8 on 18 would be silly to not rum him in the July. Open to correction, no horse under sufferance has won this race, a well weighted horse has.

Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.

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zef
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

1 week 4 days ago

#898782

Charl wrote:

Horse KG MR
EIGHT ON EIGHTEEN 57 129
ORIENTAL CHARM 59 125
SAIL THE SEAS 57 127
SEE IT AGAIN 60 127
ROYAL VICTORY 59 125
CONFEDERATE 53.5 118
PURPLE PITCHER 58 123
ATTICUS FINCH 57 121
GLADATORIAN 58 123
COUSIN CASEY 59 125
LEGEND OF ARTHUR 53 117
FIERY PEGASUS 54 119
SPUMANTE DOLCE 53 117
SELUKWE 54 111
WILD INTENT 53 116
THE REAL PRINCE 56.5 120
MUCHO DINERO 54 115
PACAYA 55.5 118
FUTURE SWING 55 117
POMODORO'S JET

Spumante Dolce

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naresh
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

1 week 4 days ago

#898783

Eight On Eighteen = 129 merit rating = 60kgs less 2kgs Weight For Age Allowance = 58kgs. Maximum 3yo weight = 57kgs.

See It Again = 127 merit rating = 59kgs.

Due to top weight only allotted 59kgs, all weights will be raised by 1kg to get to 60kgs.

Eight on Eighteen will therefore carry 58kgs according to my understanding at the current merit ratings.

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Charl
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

1 week 4 days ago - 1 week 4 days ago

#898784

Eight On Eighteen = 129 mr -2kg wfa= 125mr
See It Again = 127mr
This is how I got it Naresh, not sure if they allocate top weight before or after wfa deductions, I would presume after wfa, as 8on18 would carry 1kg less than see it again in a normal handicap.
Formgrids only go back to 2017 and this is the only time since 2017 where the top 3y old is rated higher than the top older horse.

Last edit: 1 week 4 days ago by Charl.

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