The Trainer–Jockey Stats That Point to Live Chances
By Mark van Deventer
Using trainer and jockey strike rates is not a new idea, but is an effective way to quickly home in on live contenders.
In a sense, other people are doing the handicapping work for you when you check strike rates. Jockeys are ambitious, sporting professionals and want to maximise their earnings by getting on mounts with winning chances. Most jockeys use agents who study the form diligently and are primed with inside information, and these booking agents lobby trainers to empploy their jockey when things set up right.
And it is a sign of positive intent when a savvy, trainer, who knows the fitness level and race readiness of his charge, books a good jockey to ride it.
Backing horses with high percentage trainer/ jockey duos implies the horse is fit and “well meant” - American racing jargon that connections are going all out for the win.
Let’s check out different centres in South Africa and highlight successful trainer/jockey combos. Some are glaringly obvious - featuring the top guys, so may not have much wagering value.
Other “finds” could be more valuable to bettors, especially when low-profile, sharp yards suddenly engage their go-to jock, based on current season stats.
Be wary though of statistics based on small samples which can skew things.
Given current field sizes across the country, trainers and jockey winning and placing merely at the usual, random rate should have stats around 10% and 30% respectively.
So, we are looking for those that exceed “normal” standards by a big margin.
In some cases, the win stats are a bit low, but the place stats are encouragingly high. Punters might use that to their advantage when taking Trifecta/Quartet tickets or linking horses in Place Multiples.
EASTERN CAPE:
Leon Lotz and Chad Little 40% win and 60% place
Dean Smith & Craig Zackey 23% win and 58% place
Alan Greeff and Craig Zackey 24% win and 53% place
Alan Greeff and Richard Fourie 18%-win 50% place
Tara Laing and Wayne Agrella 17%-win 45% place.
GAUTENG:
David Niewenhuizen and Craig Zackey 43% win and 64% place.
Diane Stenger & Marco van Rensburg 33% win and 53% place.
Paul Matchet and KJ Lihaba 25% win and 63% place
Lucky Houdalakis and Craig Zackey 21% win and 49% place
St John Gray and P Mxoli 21% win and 43% place.
MF de Kock and Callan Murray 21% win and 37% place
Janse van Vuuren and K de Melo 20% win and 50% place
Robbie Sage and Muzi Yeni 19% win and 51% place
James Crawford and Callan Murray 19% win and 51% place
Sean Tarry & Keagan de Melo 18% win and 47% place
Clinton Binda and Case Maujean 12% win and 53% place
Alec Laird and S’Manga Khumalo 8% win and 50% place.
KZN:
Corne Spies and Ryan Munger 35% win & 53% place
Mark Dixon and Keagan de Melo 33% win and 67% place
Alyson Wright and Damyan Pillay 27% win and 48% place
Wengesai Masawi and Sean Veale 26% win and 61% places
Duncan Howells and Keagan de Melo 25% win and 75% place
Gareth van Zyl & S’Manga Khumalo 25% win and 53% place
MJ Odendaal and Sean Veale 24% win and 46% place
Duncan Howells and Callan Murray 22% win and 56% place.
Alyson Wright and Keagan de Melo 17% win and 61% place
Wendy Whitehead & S’’Manga Khumalo 17% win and 58%.
Andre Nel and Serino Moodley 17% win and 48% place.
There is more to the handicapping puzzle that blindly following in form trainer/jockey combos. But as a short cut to arriving on live horses it remains a helpful metric.
Bio: Mark van Deventer has been refining his speed figures for thoroughbred racehorses over three decades. A full-time racing journalist since 2013, he’s known for his integrity and imaginative handicapping, adapting the principles of Andrew Beyer’s figures to South African racecourses.
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