Punting Philosophy: Allies, Ratings, Pace and Value
By Mark van Deventer
An idea to help with punting is to pick your team of racing allies that are worthy of being supported with hard-earned cash.
Choose jockeys and trainers that you admire for their accomplishments/conduct and focus only betting on them when your reading of the form leads you to one of their horses.
For example, some successful punters use rating systems to home in on well handicapped horses but will only back them when they are ridden or trained by their chosen, trusted “allies.”
“Beauty is in the eye of the beholder” is a truism that applies in racing, too. Consistency, Class and Potential to Improve are qualities that are worth looking for before adding horses to Watch Lists.
Consistency implies that a horse can maintain a level of performance which is good enough to win at a certain Class level. And something that has been proven in multiple studies over the years is that, when winning, horses usually improve upon their rating. So having extra energy reserves or recognizing the potential to do better than what they’ve done in the recent past is a key factor in picking winners.
“Pace makes the race” is another well-worn racing motto which remains true to this day. Horses are pack animals and creatures of habit with established running styles. If your fancy is a closer who conserves his move till late in the race, then be sure he will be getting a strong early pace to run at. And if you like a habitual front runner you don’t want him to be subject to loads of pace pressure but would instead prefer that he gets an uncontested lead.
Allied to this is the concept of track bias or course profiles. If you keep records of your wagering, you may find you get better results at different venues. If your propensity is to bet on strong finishers then galloping tracks like Turffontein and Kenilworth which have long straights, may provide more of the right opportunities.
As the Poly surfaces generally play kindlier to speed, looking for front runners or pace pressers at Fairview or Greyville could prove rewarding.
With rating methods becoming ever more sophisticated due to computer programming power and the use of Artificial Intelligence, data driven “quantifiers” can scale up their computer systems. However, these ‘quants” ”cannot easily account for thoroughbred physiology and the individual mentality of horses as experienced trackmen/observers can do.
This is a “mysterious” realm of racing performance that cannot easily be measured - yet is important. Robust, nimble and game horses are superior mediums to wager on than unsound, ponderous and timid beasts. Making those distinctions can prove helpful…
Putting it all together is the challenge. No matter how diligently they approach things, most punters back more losers than winners. That is the nature of a hard game where, as American gambler, Barry Meadow wisely said, “much is unknowable and we’re not as smart as we think.”
That said, Price is important and if you can obtain generous odds about the winners you punt, they can offset all the losing bets and help restore profitability.
Bio: Mark van Deventer has been refining his speed figures for thoroughbred racehorses over three decades. A full-time racing journalist since 2013, he’s known for his integrity and imaginative handicapping, adapting the principles of Andrew Beyer’s figures to South African racecourses.
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