The featured Stakes preview for this weekend is the
Greyville 1900 on Saturday afternoon. It’s a Grade 3, carded as Race 7, with the off time, 15h30.
Some of these entrants’ harbor
Durban July aspirations (
Isivivane,
Holding Thumbs,
Master Redoute, The
Ultimate King,
Native Ruler and
Trust) so need to get their KZN campaigns under way on a positive note. Others are stayers prepping for longer distance races soon.
The “speed map” has
Isivivane and
Holding Thumbs racing handy from low draws with perhaps,
Native Ruler coming across to join them, but the pace is unlikely to be helter-skelter. Jockeyship, placement and acceleration will prove decisive if the pace turns out, at best, steady.
1.
IMILENZEYOKUDUDMA S/S 103 ex: 7YO comes back after 83 days off track. It’s 482 days since he last won and he must show renewed zest to trouble the scorer. That said, his last start was more like it when closing to within a length of
Talktothemaster in soft going at Scottsville.
2.
ISIVIVANE S/S 102: Career peak for Peter Muscutt’s runner at his most recent try when handy all the way in the
Big Cap over 1400m. Ran solidly to
King Pelles over this trip in February so goes on the shortlist as he should get the run of the race.
3.
AHEAD OF THE FACTS S/S 98: Emerging stayer who cleaned up during the Cape Summer with his merit rating soaring from 86 to 110. Always finishes his races off well but probably needs further and a stronger gallop than will be the case come Saturday.
4.
HOLDING THUMBS S/S 101: Top notch marathon runner who tangled repeatedly with champion stayer
King Pelles last winer in KZN. This giant specimen is sure to give another good sight pressing the pace and galloping resolutely yet could be done for finishing kick by a few of these nimbler foes.
5.
MASTER REDOUTE S/S 102 ex: 7YO long term loser over middle distances who last went into No 1 Box 650 days ago when winning the
Gold Cup over 3200. That’s his real game, so is unlikely to be a factor on Saturday, even though he’s run some nice races fresh and comes in off a three-month spell for the excellent Andre Nel stable with Keagan de Melo booked.
6.
THE ULTIMATE KING S/S 103: Very good try when nearly closing down
Fire Attack just 11 days ago at Turffontein in a career top showing, equipped first time blinkers. A fit horse – Interbet sponsored, Tony Peter’s entry has a definite chance of hitting the board if reprising that Highveld figure at the seaside.
7.
SON OF RAJ S/S 103 ex: This
Duke of Marmalade 6YO gelding is a winner of six of 30 starts. That’s a rather disappointing tally given how smart he looked at three. Merit rating has not shifted much and he needs a wake-up to be competitive again. Has changed stables and is now handled by Frank Robinson.
8.
REGULATION S/S 108: Very interesting 4YO who used to choke up earlier in his career in lower tier contest then came right during the Cape Summer running escalating figures of 103 and then a sky high, 108 when outduelling
Major Master in a thriller. If he can sustain those performances (or even improve on them by a few ticks) then Justin Snaith’s charge is a massive contender carrying 54kg’s. JP van der Merwe, on board for both those big figs, is riding again.
9.
NATIVE RULER S/S 105: Mixes his form and is hard to catch right. Witness being the quickest finisher in the
Durban July and running admirably in the
Green Point Stakes, but below that subsequently in the
Premiers and
Cape Met. Hard to get too excited about his chances of winning off a steadier of 62kg’s. In his favor, he has won fresh before, has not been disgraced in higher class contests and gets the remarkable “miracle worker”, Andrew Fortune as his pilot.
10.
TRUST S/S 106 +: One of the best 3YO’s in the country though opinion is dispersed as to the merit of the crop. Measured on the speed figs not only is he very smart (a score of 100 in November is quite an achievement for a young 3YO), but he’s training on too. Candice Dawson’s star was pipped by
Tin Pan Alley in the
Graeme Beck; beat
Jan van Goyen in the
Dingaans, then just missed to
Splittheeights and
Grand Empire in the
Gauteng Guineas and
SA Classic. On pure ability and budding potential, he stacks up as a principal contender. Niggling queries are that he’s making his first sojourn to the Durban coast, is going this far for the first time and coming in off a two-month break.
GRADES:
A = 10 B = 8 C = 2 6 9.
For extra sharp tips, be sure to catch James Goodman’s Interbet podcast for the entire Saturday card from Greyville, which is flighted on race day mornings.
Bio: Mark van Deventer has been refining his speed figures for thoroughbred racehorses over three decades. A full-time racing journalist since 2013, he’s known for his integrity and imaginative handicapping, adapting the principles of Andrew Beyer’s figures to South African racecourses.
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