South African MR handicapping system

It is no wonder that there is an abundance of MR handicaps in SA.
Theoretically there are no upsets in those as every runner has an equal chance!!!!
What highlights how seldom our horses actually run to their ratings are the plate races which race after race make a mockery of the official ratings ....................and regulators obviously take the view that it is reasonable to use these races as easy gallops and preps!
Why is it that the UK trainers can bring horses into 2400m Group 1 races,fully fit,but we need preps for sprinters..................the reason is simple ..................it has become the norm,because it is allowed....................... our regulators haven't a clue how to manage the "run on merit" rule.This is not a guess ........I got a mail from the NHA telling me how difficult it is!-- this in spite of the fact that their handicapping division track and have an ongoing record of every horse's run which measures exactly whether a horse ran "on merit" or not!
I can safely say that tracking ratings exposes at least a couple of dozen horses a month that require an explanation but the NHA have found NOT one(1) case worthy of official action,in 15 years!!!!!!!
The results in plate races in recent times are a very bad advert for the system!
It is not rocket science .............Merit Ratings can only be as accurate as the merit of the horses runs!
The greatest problem horseracing has always faced is trust,and,sadly,the best advert for sports betting at the moment is the way the industry is regulated!

Great post

Good read and so true.The last 2 months I started doing Hong Kong racing and I can honestly say that their way of racing will exceed us forever.Its not only as strict as can be but also much easier to study than our own racing and 99% of the time you get a fair run for your money.Hopefully the powers that be wake up in 10-20 yrs and turn our racing in an equal opportunity for all...from punters to owners.

Maybe someone who is an expert on the MR system can explain this. Flyfirstclass running off a 103 wins a Pinnacle and they use Royalzuluwarrior as the line horse. 2nd and 4th place horses running over a distance short of their best. Fly gets given 4 MR points extra. Now a 107. Brutal force also runs in a pinnacle against a good field of sprinters (Royalzuluwarrior is IMHO not in their class) including Trip to heaven and Deliver the power on Tuesday night off a 104 and wins and is only given 2 MR points. Fly now has to give him weight?

Craig Eudey wrote: Maybe someone who is an expert on the MR system can explain this. Flyfirstclass running off a 103 wins a Pinnacle and they use Royalzuluwarrior as the line horse. 2nd and 4th place horses running over a distance short of their best. Fly gets given 4 MR points extra. Now a 107. Brutal force also runs in a pinnacle against a good field of sprinters (Royalzuluwarrior is IMHO not in their class) including Trip to heaven and Deliver the power on Tuesday night off a 104 and wins and is only given 2 MR points. Fly now has to give him weight?

I'm no expert for sure, but doing the maths on those races you mention the figures do add up . Having horses with ratings of 109 and 117 in the field he beat , albeit arguably better over further, does make RZW look the horse that ran to rating, so the numbers fall from there. No help to you I'm sure

Hi Craig, handicapper spot on.
Trip to heaven lost lenghts at the start so never ran to his true rating so he couldnt be use as linehorse.
On handicap terms bf beat dtp (who is the linehorse) by 0,75l so bf deserve his 2 points.
Pk and IM achieved their respective rating over much further and also couldnt be use as linehorses but rzw got beaten fairly by 1,75l and deserves to be linehorse thus ffc getting 4 points.
2 races back ffc won against rzw giving rzw a 1,75l beating and got 4 points penalty, now 2 races later ffc and rzw should deadheat if same race was run but ffc gave him another 1,75l beating. Now you sound confused why you need to give bf weight if ffc and bf must meet in future but dont you think rzw is actually the one that must ask the question about bf??

My personal opinion is that ffc ran to his 103 mark and non other of the other sprint specialists in the race ran to their actual current rating , rzw ran 3 points weaker than his 103 rating and other sprinters ran poorly thats why power king and ice machine ran such "great" sprints. The time of the race also suggest it wasnt a fast race .

Hope it helps craig but thats just my view

I agree with your opinion 100% Zietzman. RZW ran below his form. Thandolwami ran 3rd beaten a length in a Group 1, 2nd twice in a Group 2 amongst other races and had a highest rating of 105. Fly has run once in a group 1 and finished 10th and once in a Group 2 and finished 7th. How does that work that he has a MR of 107, higher than Thandolwami?

I will check it for you this afternoon craig and see where and why with the 2 , just busy driving float down to kimberley atm.

Ziets I'm not sure TTH start was as bad as all that, he got in the race very easily to say that cost him the race imo

Start was only over egged because the commentators chin hit the ground

I can see Craig's point of view. Horses don't need to have run to To their MR to have finished where expected but the handicapper has to make some assumptions . And to be fair most of the time they are not far off. I do think sometimes there are excessive penalties where horses are given big ratings for winning or running well in a group race, whereas they have never previously run anywhere near that rating, nor run anywhere near that rating again.

Not that it will cheer Craig up but the only time FFC met Brutal Force he finished 3l ahead of him giving weight, and collateral form with de kocks also has FFC ahead. So not really a travesty ?

I rest my case ...............Race 6 at Vaal today won by a horse 20Kg out at the weights!
The reason I started this thread is I have a few guys who have been staying in touch looking for pointers of how to use handicapping to assist punting ................how do you respond to the evidence of plate race after plate race, that our ratings are a joke!

Punters are being scammed but unlike the E-mail scams ,these scams are committed under licence, so aren't even illegal! :evil:

(and then the other reason P6's are so hard to catch ...................Cohiba wins the last race ,a MR hcp ,off a rating of 75 ..........having being given a "problem discount" of 17llbs off its Ability Rating of 92! Horses are being handicapped by connections due to the system,and punters get caught out when they suddenly produce their ability)

The excuse is "they are flesh and blood" .....well I have noticed that too, but if that argument is intended to excuse inconsistent form ,then the ability rating system must then be scrapped as it becomes arbitrary and pointless........................ and racing must then revert to the race figure system whereby each win becomes a little harder to achieve...............but great horses win more races than good horses and good horses win more races than bad horses ..........sounds reasonable to me!!!!!!!

I was going to take Flyfirstclass to Jhb for the merchants but with his merit rating he is staying at home. At level weights Sleek Brashee beat me by 4.75 lengths in Tsogo sun sprint. The race before that he beat me 0.5 lengths when I gave him 1kg. When Fly won in September the line horse used was Royalzuluwarrior(9yr old with problems) who in his 3 previous runs had run an average of about 11.5 lengths off and the Handicappers gave Fly 4 points. He was used again in his last win and gave him another 4 to make him a 107. In his middle run he ran 2.3 lengths off Barbosa in a pinnacle and his mr stayed the same. Sleek Brashee ran in the same race and was 0.25 lengths behind me and was dropped a point. SB then ran 5th beaten 2.4 lengths in a listed race and is dropped another 2! He now has 4.75 lengths and 3.5kgs in his favour from when they met in a group 1. What chance have I got?