Changes to the WSB Summer Cup Log

WOA the new jolly

Bob Brogan wrote:

Frodo wrote:

Bob Brogan wrote:

Didn't realise the lowest carried weight is 54 kg, must have changed it without me reading

Was always the condition - I noted that in a post yonks ago - but I suppose you don't read my drivel :lol:

I meant it was always the intention this year - From the program on sahorseracing :

Saturday
27 November 2021
R2 800 000
Friday 19 November 2021
THE GAUTENG SUMMER CUP (Grade 1)

1 2 000m 2 000 000
Handicap
Maximum Weight to be carried: 60 kg
Minimum Weight to be carried: 54 kg
Weights may change up to the time of Declarations, but there will be
NO change to the weights after the Final Field has been issued

Anyway - as many has mentioned, quite a few are under sufferance and I agree that War of Athena is the one to beat - but I do think Shango receiving 3.5 kgs from her could make her run on overall form and I think he is good value for the top 4

Sorry Frodo, get you now

PS guys WSB have priced up the full card www.worldsportsbetting.co.za/mplevents/1...113390433_113390434_

Bob Brogan wrote:

PS guys WSB have priced up the full card www.worldsportsbetting.co.za/mplevents/1...113390433_113390434_

Alesian Chief 15/1 - early xmas present

Second Base 20/1 into 11/1 today

Big weight difference from his prep run

Bob Brogan wrote: Second Base 20/1 into 11/1 today

Big weight difference from his prep run

Do you mean like a BINGWA? If so, how many pounds?


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Mac wrote:

Bob Brogan wrote: Second Base 20/1 into 11/1 today

Big weight difference from his prep run

Do you mean like a BINGWA? If so, how many pounds?


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I think what Bob is trying to convey is that Second Base carried 60kgs last time out and will be carrying 55kgs on Saturday. Most of his previous races he was also carrying 60kgs.

Also note Second Base gave Sparkling Water 10kgs last time out. Sparkling Water only gets 1kg now. She's 3kgs worse off.

Most importantly I think though is during their classic season, Malmoos and Second Base met on four occasions carrying level weights. Second Base came within 2 lengths of Malmoos but Second Base did beat Malmoos when second to Got The Greenlight and Malmoos ran unplaced. On Saturday Second Base gets 4kgs from Malmoos. Over 2000m according to most sites 0.72kgs equals a lenght. Second Base should finish in front of Malmoos according to that but remember Malmoos was highly thought of.

Great explanation Naresh

What makes it more interesting is that not everyone needs to agree with the NHA's official ratings - and many I think have their own rating system; I also have my own ratings for 'good' horses - and using those, it does in some cases point to horses that are 'better weighted' than first meets the eye when just using the official ratings - which as you say gets muddled when it comes to Pinnacle Plates etc

My ratings show me that this race is much more open than first appears ....

A runner like African Adventure comes in very well at these weights and at the odds imo is definitely worth throwing into trifectas and quartets - yes he is better over further, but has won twice over 2000 (and over 1800 in his penultimate) - and is very effective at this track.

Shango comes out as 'best weighted' with African Adventure on my ratings - so another who can boost the trifecta and quartet dividend - the fact that Calvin Habib has perhaps preferred Flying Carpet, may be a negative

Next best at the weights on my ratings, are Bingwa (better shorter ?), Astrix and Golden Pheasant, followed by Got the Greenlight, Second Base and Majestic Mozart; as pointed out by Naresh, Second Base on his effort behind Got the Greenlight in the Challenge in May would be best in - just not sure that he can re-produce that; Majestic Mozart could also be a bit of a dark horse.

War of Athena has often surprised me by running much better than I expected, but at the risk of that yellow stuff, I point out that she has not run against males since the Ready to Run Cup in October last year - a race where she beat Flying Carpet by less than half-a-length, receiving 2.5 kgs :ohmy: - so strictly on that run she does not have much hope of finishing in front of Flying Carpet at these weights - but I think she has improved such a lot that one would be foolish to ignore her - it's just that I don't think that she is any value at current odds

Then there is Malmoos; swept all before him in the Gauteng classics last year, but in the SA Classic he beat Second Base by just 2 lengths (and Flying Carpet by under 3 lengths) - so he does have a tough task at the weights here imo - but then one can never ignore Mike de Kock in this race.

Flying Carpet as pointed out, would have a realistic chance on last season's form, but he needs to find quite a few lengths to trouble Astrix and Golden Pheasant (and even the poorly weighted Sparkling Water) on his last run in the Victory Moon

So not easy - runners at big prices who can easily run into the top 4 imo, are African Adventure, Shango, Astrix and Golden Pheasant, while Second Base if returning to his form in the Gauteng classics last season, could also feature prominently

Must say, I also had Second Base as good ew value based on the runs in the features. However when revisiting the videos of his runs, I'm not so sure anymore.

SB has average gate speed, draw wont help so will have to come from the back. And with a big field will need plenty of luck in running. Also seems to lack a proper finish ...

In the Classic SB got rolling early, but Malmoos was playing with SB from the 300, at the 100 Malmoos just kicked and coasted home. So to me 2 lbh is flattering.

Even the last three runs, no kick ... but that could just be the prep to go full tilt Saturday.


Anyway not putting anybody off SB, but not for me anymore for the win after the replays ... Just many things against SB, so places for me at best.