Are there any runners whom the NHRA have themselves underrated?

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1 week 1 day ago #829779 by Mac
Any clansman please advise if there are any runners whom the NHRA have themselves underrated for the Big T on Saturday. For example the BINGWA case when Joe Public did not know that his MR was underrated by 6lb in the Mission Mile three weeks ago.


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1 week 1 day ago #829784 by oscar
Mac I think maybe two of them:

Full Velocity and Vassem are under rated

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1 week 1 day ago #829787 by Mac

Mac I think maybe two of them:

Full Velocity and Vassem are under rated


Noted for when I get to look at those runners.


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1 week 1 day ago - 1 week 1 day ago #829788 by naresh
@ Mac. Normally condition races like Pinnacle races only the winner can get penalised and not placed horses. Some conditions feature races like the Greyville 1900 has the same rule.

If you look at Battle Force, he won last time out and went up 6 points to 120 from 114. However, Bartholdi ran 2nd and remains a 100 for a 1 lenght beating and returning from a layoff. Bartholdi did receive 5.5kgs though.

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1 week 1 day ago - 1 week 1 day ago #829799 by Mac
Ok thanks. Let’s look at your Bartholdi.
But for the conditions of his last race (which was a Pinnacle) should the NHRA have rated him higher than his published MR of 100? If so then by how much?

If I review that race result the same way as the NHRA I see his published MR of 100 is fine and so he has not been underrated.


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1 week 1 day ago - 1 week 1 day ago #829806 by TheBlueME
MR... hmmm ... each one to his own studybook... lol.

So my 2cents ...
Batholdi beaten 1 length by BF which is 1.36 kg over 1160m.
1.36kg = 3 pounds
So this is if they ran at level weights.
But Batholdi(52) received 6kg's from BF(58).
So 6kg = 13 pounds
Add the two = 16 pounds
So if BF ran to a 120 then Batholdi ran to a 104** (8kg)
Raceform has the ratings of this race as 105 to 88 ( 17 differential )
**conditions of the race means no increase to 104, stays at 100.

Conditions of the Merchants this Saturday
Handicap with the benchmark set at 52kg = 102
So Batholdi should carry 53kg's based on a 104 achieved rating.
Batholdi is 1kg under sufference with BF(61/120) with a rating of a 100.
But 1kg better off with BF with an achieved rating of 104.

My understanding and perspective, I could be way off ;)

You make the call.
Last edit: 1 week 1 day ago by TheBlueME.
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1 week 1 day ago #829808 by TheBlueME
Also maybe revisit that race, there is a lot going on with Bartholdi .... so go check and see if he was a 20/1 shot when the betting open, come in to 10/1 at HW.
BF is currently 6/1 from 7/1 at HW.
14/1 and 15/2 at WSB.

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1 week 1 day ago - 1 week 1 day ago #829809 by Mac
Aah thanks BlewMe, I see my error to which you have eluded me. I’m just doing mental arithmetic with my phone. I shld have related Bartholdi’s achieved rating to the line horse Riverstown not to any other.

Bartholdi beat Riverstown by 3 lengths or 6 pounds but Bartholdi was carrying 4lb less. Therefore Bartholdi’s achievement was 2lb more than the MR of Riverstown of 104 equating to an achieved rating of 106. But for the conditions of that race this is the MR that would have been published in the Merchants race for Bartholdi and not the 100 on Saturday’s card.

Thanks Naresh and BlewMe we have Bartholdi underrated by the NHRA of 4lb-6lb - just like BINGWA had!!! (Or am I talking absolute crap?).

Clansmen - factor this into your algorithms.

I must verify Oscar’s ones.


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1 week 1 day ago #829810 by Mac
Do you have anymore of these anomalies for us?


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1 week 1 day ago #829815 by TheBlueME
Agree Mac, thanks ... Riverstown the line horse Bartholdi a 106.
On that run 1160 does seems a little sharp though, took off nicely towards the end after getting out paced in the middle stages of that race.

Seems the punters are finding the value as he is shorting nicely now.
Incl in exotics.

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1 week 1 day ago - 1 week 1 day ago #829817 by Mac
😳 for the shortening


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1 week 1 day ago #829840 by oscar
Mac I must say this is the first time I have looked at MR of horses objectively. So great question thanks!

Why I chose those 2 horses is I compared their races they have run in recently especially the average MR of the runners in each race and then compared that to their current rating now. Those two horses rating when I look at in that way vs the ratings of the field they in on Saturday I feel are well in (whatever that means).

However when I look at it that way I note there are many many horses overrated in this country, far too many especially at the top level. I also see that they raised very fast and take more than a year of unplaced runs they very slow to correct the rating.

Basically i can now see why many of my own horses start battling early once they get a rating because that early rating is far too high.

Anyway such is the sport.
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