Are there any runners whom the NHRA have themselves underrated?

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1 week 21 hours ago #829867 by Frodo

Agree Mac, thanks ... Riverstown the line horse Bartholdi a 106.
On that run 1160 does seems a little sharp though, took off nicely towards the end after getting out paced in the middle stages of that race.

Seems the punters are finding the value as he is shorting nicely now.
Incl in exotics.


It would depend on how one equates lengths beaten to kg over a specific trip, but if one does take Battle Force's new rating of 120 as gospel, then surely Bartholdi must be better than 100 - maybe as high as 107; more realistic imo I have BF at 115 and Bartholdi at 102; draws and the going might be a factor as well, but still I can't see why Bartholdi should trade at double the odds of BF

Others to consider imo would be Chimichuri Run - prep ideal and blinkers go back on, while Gavin has a great record on the horse; then we have Spydas Corner who on his last effort (in soft going) looks very well weighted when compared to runners like Cartel Captain, Ultra Magnus, etc

On a card where finding anything close to a banker looks impossible, I make the Merchants one of the toughest races :huh:

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6 days 15 hours ago #829968 by Frodo
Just going through the form - for me, Forever Mine last time out ran about 9 or 10 points above his current rating - use it don't use it :dry:
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6 days 43 minutes ago - 6 days 41 minutes ago #830005 by Mac
Frodo, Forever Mine’s last run was as the NHRA’s line horse so it’s MR cannot be adjusted or underrated. You must have a different line horse for your own ratings.


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Last edit: 6 days 41 minutes ago by Mac.

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6 days 32 minutes ago #830006 by Mac
Does anyone know who the line horse was in The Lady’s Stakes R6 4 Sep? It is not listed in the Full Results in Tabonline.
I’m trying to assess Full Velocity for Oscar.


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6 days 26 minutes ago #830007 by Mac
Oscar, VASEEM cannot be underrated in his MR as he was one of two line horses in his last race. His MR is seemingly true give or take one or two pounds.


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5 days 21 hours ago #830018 by TheBlueME

Does anyone know who the line horse was in The Lady’s Stakes R6 4 Sep? It is not listed in the Full Results in Tabonline.
I’m trying to assess Full Velocity for Oscar.


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May Queen as per NHRA site.
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4 days 22 hours ago #830116 by Mac
Oscar, based on her last run Full Velocity’s MR is not underrated. In that race May Queen is the line horse where both runners shared common weights and MR’s of 93. Full Velocity beat May Queen by 1length or 2 pounds hence Full Velocity’s MR was increased from 93 to 95.


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4 days 19 hours ago #830133 by oscar

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2 days 17 hours ago #830276 by Mac


Thanks Naresh and BlewMe we have Bartholdi underrated by the NHRA of 4lb-6lb - just like BINGWA had!!! (Or am I talking absolute crap?).

Clansmen - factor this into your algorithms.


Guys, the card’s only NHRA underrated runner comes in 2nd to Alesian Chief paying R2.40 a place. It sounds good to me 😊


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2 days 12 hours ago #830306 by naresh
@ Mac

I'm not a handicap fundi but,

For future analysis of form

Look at Novice Plates, Graduation Plates, Progress Plates, Pinnacle Plates and Condition Feature Races including Non Black Type. Most of the time the placed horses cannot be increased and the winner only can go up a certain amount of points. Look for anomalies there. In Maiden Races where most of the runners have run more than three times look for the highest rated horses. Sometimes they can go off at nice odds. In Maiden races though, I first go on the dam side pedigree from the debut run until what I perceive is their optimal distance. Found numerous long shots purely on breeding. Raceform normally show their siblings but does go beyond the dam. I find looking at their second and third dams is useful. You can go to pedigreequery.com for that.
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2 days 12 hours ago #830307 by naresh
I think also in normal handicaps, the maximum a horse can be penalised is 8 points. In feature race graded and listed handicaps any runner even if you finished last, your rating can go up.

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1 day 19 hours ago #830335 by Mac
Shot. Will bump this thread for the next big race day.


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