1600m Hollywoodbets CAPE GUINEAS 13 DECEMBER 2025

MR UPDATED

Victress stakes
Sukhumvit 94 upto 100

Merchants
Outlaw king 115 upto 118

Green Point
Garrix 118 upto 123
Jet Force 93 upto 120. Fuck me. That takes care of that horses future

Guineas
Happy Verse 103 upto 113
Randolph Hearst 106 upto 112
Gimmie Rules 102 upto 111
Fox on the run 95 upto 110
Star Major 101 upto 109 . Would be an unhappy owner
Beware 91 upto 103. another unhappy owner

The Guineas ratings make no sense to me ! Are you telling me that Jan Van Goyen has not improved on his rating of 118 ? 

@ Frodo what do you make of this ? 

I am looking at it this way - before the race was run, JVG was a 118 and expected to beat them, which he did and comfortably at that. The ratings of second, third and fourth placed finishers were (103 to 113), (106 to 112) and (102 to 111), it's not that JVG didn't improve, he did, what do you make his new rating, in other words, he may be better than rated.

Something to consider, let's say JVG beats them comfortably in the Kings Plate, chances are the yard would consider supplementing him into the Met. On breeding he should see out the 2000m. Look what 8 on 18 achieved "last year" after running second in the Kings Plate as a three year old.

Speaking of 8 on 18, heard a rumour he has injured himself, any truth to that anyone?

Dazza wrote:

The Guineas ratings make no sense to me ! Are you telling me that Jan Van Goyen has not improved on his rating of 118 ? 

@ Frodo what do you make of this ? 

I mostly concur Victress and Cape Merchants, and I think the Green Point was a few points too high.

For the Cape Guineas, imo Jan van Gooyen was rated too high at 118 - and that means that Happy Verse got a rating 5 or 6 points too high - proof will be in the pudding when they take on older horses .... for what it is worth, these are my ratings ....

Jan van Gooyen           112
Happy Verse                107
Randolph Hearst         106
Gimme Rules              105
Fox on the Run           105
Star Major                   105
Roland Garros            103

But as I say, these ratings need to be judged when they run against older horses  ....
 

I’m a bit puzzled by Dazza’s comment. 
The best rated Cape horses, Good For You and malmesburry Missile, ran below best. The former because he went too hard early from his wide draw, and the latter because he probably needed the run. So there were 10 points between JVG rating coming into the race and the balance, and he beat them comfortably. The only possible line horse for the handicapper is thus the winner, and there is no reasonable way to deduce that he ran any better than his rating. Indeed, he may have run below his rating as he was not extended in the race. It’s thus possible that all the horses that ran closest to him have been too heavily penalized. As Frodo says, we will see when they meet exposed older horses.

The GreenPoint was a lovely race, but showed how important it is for trainers and owners to place their horses properly. jet Force ran a hugely improved race, but surely off his rating should have been entered in the much weaker Gr3 Peninsula Hcp, which he would have doddled, earning a decent stake and a graded win. Instead he gets a massive rise in MR and nothing to show for it.

Jet Force, 3 time winner, earned 230k, now off 120...... I wouldn't be a happy owner unless they want an entry in the Met.....

bayern wrote:

Something to consider, let's say JVG beats them comfortably in the Kings Plate, chances are the yard would consider supplementing him into the Met. On breeding he should see out the 2000m. Look what 8 on 18 achieved "last year" after running second in the Kings Plate as a three year old.

Speaking of 8 on 18, heard a rumour he has injured himself, any truth to that anyone?

Will have to wait for snaith yard to make an announcement but i wouldnt be taking 9/2 for the kings plate and 18/10 for the met in a hurry