American Football League 2018/2019

when the tickets 1st came out to us season ticket holders they explained something about another event but that seems to not b the case now. I prefer Wembley to Twicks but looking forward to the game anyway.

Redskins primary running back Matt Jones has missed practice on Weds and Thurs and thus must be a doubt for Sunday's "visit" to the Bengals at Wembley.

No way of knowing for sure whether he will participate but, in an open looking game, where I admittedly marginally favour the Bengals, his absence would make the possibly generous odds already offered by WH for Chris Thompson to be first/last TD scorer very tempting.

"Coach Jay Gruden told the media after Wednesday's practice that Jones was reporting knee soreness with lateral movement.

If the second-year back can't play Sunday, Gruden said rookie Robert Kelley would get the majority of carries and Chris Thompson would continue playing third-down back as normal"

Kelley is currently 16s with WH but Thompson is the value for me. He already has both a rushing and reception TDs this season and if Jones is absent, despite the coach's words, he may well get more of the ball than just 3rd down back.

At 33s with WH I think he is worth a nibble for both first and last. Won't hurt.

Update... Thompson now 12s at Hills

LeSean McCoy is a doubtful starter for the Bills in their game with the Patriots on Sunday. That means Mike Gillislee will probably be the primary running back for the Bills. Again although I marginally favour the Patriots, the 28s Sky Bet are currently offering against Gillislee being first TD scorer is very big should McCoy not play. I can't back it unfortunately but in case there is someone out there interested...

update... now 12s with Sky

A host of really tight looking games this week, first time I can remember that all my "predictions" came out with no team winning by more than 10. Wouldn't surprise me if all my predicted losers actually win! The exception to those may be the Vikings possibly stuffing the Bears on Monday night, I haven't done a score prediction as yet on that one.

Chiefs @ Colts... for me the Chiefs are the better team if they put it all together but they seemingly have consistency issues. They have won their last two though and may be on the start of a roll so, despite the fact they have only won once in seven visits to Indianopolis, I will go with them in a high scoring affair. Taken Spencer Ware as first/last TD scorer and nibbled Turbin of the Colts at 33s with WH.

Cardinals @ Panthers... last season's Superbowl losers just can't seem to get their season started and have now lost 5/6. The bye week may have helped them recoup but the Cardinals are now unbeaten in 3 and on current form I have to go with them. David Johnson is usually heavily involved with some success so he is the TD choice.

Raiders @ Buccaneers... was completely undecided about this one but the fact that the Raiders have won all four "away" games this season, albeit not against the strongest of opponents, and the Buccs have lost 15 of the last 18 at this stadium swung me the way of the Raiders. Chanced Michael Crabtree for the TD bet and nibbled the 66/1 WH are offering on Jamize Olawale.

Seahawks @ Saints... the Saints will no doubt throw well again but the Seahawks defence is better than most and with the defence of the Saints pretty damn poor, I think the Seahawks will score more than they concede and should win this one. Jimmy Graham the very uncertain TD choice with a few others nibbled at bigger prices.

Lions @ Texans... another toss of the coin. The Lions have possibly turned their season around with three consecutive wins but they were all with home advantage. The Texans have won all four of their home games this season, again perhaps not against the strongest, but the home field advantage may just give them the edge. DeAndre Hopkins the TD choice with the 40s offered about Braxton Miller nibbled.

Patriots @ Bills... the Bills handed the Patriots their only defeat of the seaon thus far earlier this month and might win again. But their 4 game winning streak ended last week at the mediocre Dolphins and they also have some injury concerns. The Patriots now have Brady back at Quarterback and with him at the helm NE has not lost both regular seasons games to an AFC East opponent in 15 years. They have lost the first meeting 6 times and apparently won each of the six return fixtures by an average of 28 points. I take the Patriots with Blount for the TD bet. Taylor and Hopkins for the Bills nibbled.

Jets @ Browns... the Jets are hardly a great side but may still have just about enough to continue the Browns winless season. The latter have used numerous QBs this year and, partly as a consequence, the only consistency they have found is in losing! Matt Forte to hopefully be the one to start the Browns on their usual route to defeat.

Chargers @ Broncos... only two games back the Chargers shocked the Broncos with home advantage and I think they might just do the same on Bronco turf this week. They followed that win with success at the high flying Falcons and it looks like they have finally found the way to win after losing 4 of their first 5 games by less than 7 points in oft "cruel" ways. Denver's primary running back, CJ Anderson also looks to be out for the rest of the season which won't help their cause. I take the Chargers in something of an upset amd hope Tyrell Williams can do the TD business for me. Bibbs and Janovich, both Denver) big price nibbles.

Packers @ Falcons... the Packers may have returned to winning ways last week but that was against the struggling Bears and they are likely to have a lot more bullets thrown back at them by the Falcons. The latter fell away badly last season and have lost their last two but they were narrow defeats to fairly decent opponents. Would like to say the Packers but the head thinks the Falcons will get back on track and win this one. Julio Jones the TD bet.

Enough now...

Eagles @ Cowboys... Eagles ended the Vikings unbeaten start to the season last week but I marginally prefer the cowboys here. Chancing Elliott for the TD wih Butler nibbled.

Vikings @ Bears... the Vikings probably my stringest fancy of the week against a struggling Bears outfit, though the latter should have Cutler back at QB (some may say that is not such a good thing though!). Rudolph for the TD but also taken some of the 20s WH are offering on Asiata.

Thanks for reading... both of you

Anyone with an 888, Unibet or 32red a/c might want to nibble at Will Fuller of the Texans to be first TD scorer against the Lions. Fuller has the second most receptions for the Texans so far this season, these three sites have priced him up at 50s, the highest of the high street bookies is WH at 14s.

The same three Cos have Knile Davis priced up at 66s and is worth a nibble imo as first TD scorer for the Packers against the Falcons. He was recently transferred in from the Chiefs with two of GBs primary running backs out long term. Possibly won't be the main back but will quite possibly feature and at a price that won't hurt...

Final injury reports aren't out yet. nor are the first touchdown scorer prices. Have mentioned my current nominated TD scorer but I will check the prices before deciding for certain etc plus any value "outsiders". Oddschecker should assist with that if anyone is interested.

Steelers @ Ravens... looks at this stage that Rothisberger will be back at QB for the Steelers. Assuming so, then they look the more likely winners. Two teams not setting the world alight but the Steelers have had the tougher schedule imo. They are plenty capable but inconsistent while the Ravens have a strong defence but weak offence and are on a four game losing streak. Those 4 losses have all been by under 10pts and I think that trend will continue here. Brown.

Cowboys @ Browns... Cowboys have not lost since the opening game of the season while the Browns have lost all 8. Especially with the Cowboys rushing offence ranked 1st in the NFL and the defence of the Browns ranked 31st, it is hard to see anything but a Cowboys win, possibly between 11-20. Elliott.

Jaguars @ Chiefs... the Chiefs have some injury issues, top QB Smith is highly unlikely to play and their two main running backs, and the Chiefs generally like run plays, are also out. That said, they still have other competent options at RB. Against most other teams those injuries would likely to spell trouble for the Chiefs but they are on a 3 game win streak and meet a team that has won only twice on the road in the last three seasons and are struggling currently. Chiefs 1-10. West.

Jets @ Dolphins... Dolphins have turned things round somewhat in their last two games, primarily through big rushing yardage, and come off a bye week. The Jets struggled past the all-losing Browns last time out but have also won their last two and their rush defence heads the NFL. They are rock bottom in pass defence though. In a somewhat "confused" match-up, I like the Dolphins here, though it could well be close, 1-10. Landry.

Lions @ Vikings... Back on the road the Lions returned to losing ways last week against the somewhat indifferent Texans and a couple of weeks ago this would have been a Vikings banker. But, perhaps the Vikings long term injuries are starting to take their toll and some cracks are starting to appear. They went down to the struggling Bears last week having been well beaten by the Eagles the week before, scoring only 10pts in each game. Although their defence remains relatively strong and they are back to home-field advantage, I am just not sure where they are going to get points from. They'll probably win by 40 but I'll chance the Lions for an underdog win by 1-10. Ebron (and will throw a rand at a no touchdown game).

Eagles @ Giants... after an impressive start to the season the Eagles have lost 3 of their last 4 and each defeat was on the road. The Giants come off a bye and have given the rest of their season some purpose by winning their last two. It is another match-up where good or bad offence/defence meets similar on the opposition so seeing where points will come from is somewhat cloudy. Despite their poor run recently, I'm going to chance the Eagles, they at least took the Cowboys to OT last week and a repeat could see them marginal winners here, 1-10. Ryan Matthews.

Panthers @ Rams... The Panthers finally got back wo winning ways last week and it could be a kick-start to their season. The Rams on the other hand, having won 3/4 to start the season, come off a bye week and three consecutive losses. The Rams have problems scoring and though they remain comparatively strong defensively, coming up against a resurgent Panthers is likely to prove to big a force to reverse recent fortunes. The Rams like to upset the big teams but even so I'm with the Panthers 11-20. Stewart.

Saints @ 49ers... the 49ers come off a bye but have not won since the season's opener and meet a Saints team that have won 3 of their last 4 and, despite a testing schedule, have done better this season than many seemed to expect. I think the Saints will win this one comfortably, they have a powerful passing game and also meet the league's worst rushing defence. I'll go 11-20 but a blow out wouldn't surprise me. Ingram.

Colts @ Packers... the banged up Packers are hanging in there and showing some signs of improvement both on the field and in the doctor's office. They have something to do with Rodgers possibly coming out from his slump and starting to return to figures which earned him the rep of possibly being the best QB. The Colts are 3-5 and likely to scoring passing points but their schedule has looked relatively "simple" and if Rodgers continues his resurgence they might be in for a tough afternoon. I take the packers 11-20 in a high scoring game. Nelson.

Titans @ Chargers... The Titans 3rd rated rushing offence could be negated by the Chargers 5th rated rush defence and that could lead to this being a Philip Rivers pass-fest for the Chargers. The Titans have won 3 of the last 4 but, especially when compared to the Chargers, their overall schedule has not been the toughest. Although 3-5 overall the Chargers have faced some decent opposition and often gone close. I think they will win this one with something to spare, 11-20. Benjamin.

Broncos @ Raiders... one of the toughest to call this week. Raiders offence against Broncos defence basically. If the Broncos win that battle, or at least keep it somewhat in check, they should score enough points at the other end to get the win. Noth teams are 6-2 but both raider defeats have come in their three home games, the other they won by just 3 points. I'm torn but I'll go with the Broncos, 1-20. Booker.

Bills @ Seahawks... the Seahawks have won all 3 home games and are playing well enough without setting the world alight. The Bills have had injury problems and have lost their last two. Back at home I'll take the Seahawks though it might be close, 1-10. Michael.

Some value first/last TD scorers...

L Murray of the Raiders is 22/1, probably a wrong price, with Paddy Power. At least half that elsewhere

T Williams of the Chargers is 20/1 with William Hill, close to half that elsewhere.

R Kuhn of the Saints is rarely used more than trying to crunch home a TD with only a few yards to go but already has 3 TDs for the Saints this season, 40s with WH is worth a nibble.

Others in the Saints - 49ers game worth consideration are the 17/1 about Hightower of the Saints offered by PP and with the 49ers main RB possibly out, I have nibbled Harris (40), Davis (33) and Droughn (16) with WH.

Dolphins have issues at Tight End so the 25/1 about Gray and 50/1 about Jones with WH have been nibbled.

Rams receiver Austin is 20s with Hills, close to half that elsewhere.

Englander wrote: Some value first/last TD scorers...

L Murray of the Raiders is 22/1, probably a wrong price, with Paddy Power. At least half that elsewhere

T Williams of the Chargers is 20/1 with William Hill, close to half that elsewhere.

R Kuhn of the Saints is rarely used more than trying to crunch home a TD with only a few yards to go but already has 3 TDs for the Saints this season, 40s with WH is worth a nibble.

Others in the Saints - 49ers game worth consideration are the 17/1 about Hightower of the Saints offered by PP and with the 49ers main RB possibly out, I have nibbled Harris (40), Davis (33) and Droughn (16) with WH.

Dolphins have issues at Tight End so the 25/1 about Gray and 50/1 about Jones with WH have been nibbled.

Rams receiver Austin is 20s with Hills, close to half that elsewhere.

Some good calls there Sir with First Time TD, missed the post but well done.

Chiefs @ Panthers... tough one to call with a resurgent Panthers up against the 6-2 Chiefs who are on a 4 game win streak plus Smith back at QB and Ware at RB. I have a marginal preference for the Panthers, they have home advantage and really need to win which might give them a slightly more competitive edge. Their rush defence has also remained solid despite the early season woes and the Chiefs generally like to run. The Chiefs rush defence does not show up so well on the stats, Newton from QB is always a possible, but with 4 TDs in the last three games. I quite like Stewart for the TD. CP 1-10.

Texans @ Jaguars... Despite being 5-3 the Texans have lost all three games on the road though they were to some of the stronger NFL teams. That said, their home wins, against lesser opponents, have not been hugely convincing. The Jaguars are 2-6. Offensively they seem to favour the pass but are up against the 2nd best NFL pass defence so points may be hard to come by. Added to that, they are probably better defensively on the pass while the Texans are ranked much better offensively on the run, that said they have only 2 rush TDs this season. A home win would not surprise me but I'll go with a Texans win in a tight one, 1-10. L Miller my TD play with a small nibble on his namesake, B Miller at 22s.

Broncos @ Saints... the Broncos may be 6-3 but they are 2-3 over the last 5 games. The Saints seem much improved this year and after a 3 loss start are now 4-1 in their last five. The Saints free scoring pass offence is up against a decent pass defence this week. But, the Broncos are struggling of late defensively against the run while the Saints have developed a more potent rush offence this year. I have a bit of a hunch the Saints are going to win this one fairly comfortably, a dangerous thing to predict against the Broncos, but I think they are are on the up while the Broncos are possibly, shall we say, a little disillusioned at the moment. Saints 11-20, Hightower looks decent value again at 18s with PP.

Rams @ Jets... the Rams are on a 4 game losing streak and although the last three losses have been by 7 or less, they do not inspire confidence at the moment and I am never sure how they are going to score points. The Jets are not exactly strong and won't find points easy to come by but my suspicion is they will find a way through once or twice and that may be enough, with 5 TDs in the last 3 games, Forte must have a fair TD chance and would seem the sensible play, Jets 1-10.

Falcons @ Eagles... the Falcons are currently showing the better signs. They have won 4/5 road games. The Eagles have won all 3 home games by an average 20pts and back at home they might reignite but they have lost 4 of the last 5, scoring between 20 and 23pts in each of those games. The Falcons though have scored 23 or more in all games this season and in 6/9 have scored 30 plus. They are the year's highest scoring offence. Their pass game may be somewhat countered by a decent Eagles pass defence so I'll chance Freeman for the first TD. Might be tight but I have a feeling that if the Falcons get ahead early then they might win this with something to spare, 11-20.

Bears @ Buccaneers... the Bears come off a confidence boosting win over the faltering Vikings with the return of Cutler to QB but are 2-6 overall and have lost all 4 games on the road. The Buccs though have an equally dire 0-4 home record and have found home success difficult to come by over the last three years. They have though scored 24 or more in 3 of those 4 home games while the Bears highest pts tally this year is 23 and they have conceded 23 or more in each of their away games. To counter that vein of thought somewhat, the Buccs have conceded 27 or more in each of their 4 home games. I think the Buccs are the stronger overall, their home record has to improve some time so I am going to marginally favour them, 1-10. With concerns over the RB slot for the Buccs, Evans will be the play safe option for TD.

Packers @ Titans... although they are officially ranked one against the run, defensively the Packers are very open imo and they are up against the NFL's number two rusher. Elliott of the Cowboys carved them up in week 6 and Murray might do the same. Being a "fan" I probably dwell on their current failings more than others but the Packers do not convince me defensively and they are hit-n-miss offensively. They may prefer being away though with perhaps less intense expectancy on them, they only failed by seconds to win at the high flying Falcons 2 weeks back but, although this could be a blow-out win for either, I have to go with the inconsistent Titans in a close, high scoring affair. Murray.

Vikings @ Redskins... the long term Viking injury problems seem to have hit home and they are a struggling side just now, They are on a run of three straight losses, averaging just 12pts per game in that period. They visit the Redskins who come off a bye week which may help them get back on track, a tie and loss (on the road) having followed 4 straight wins. The loss came in the last minute and in the tie they missed a 34 yard FG in OT so should really have won. I think they are the stronger team right now and although their games are usually relatively close, with the Vikings struggling for points, I like the Redskins to win this one with daylight between them, 11-20. Reed.

Dolphins @ Chargers... the Dolphins are on a 3 game win streak but have lost all 3 on the road this season. The Chargers have won 3 of their last 4 and are 3/4 at home, losing the other by a solitary point. Both teams have had impressive displays by RBs in recent weeks and that may be where the game is won and lost, the Chargers rush defence is ranked 6th compared to the Dolphins at 30. I think the Chargers are the stronger team with the more options and they could have too many guns for the Dolphins. Chargers 11-20, Gordon.

49ers @ Cardinals... hard to see the 49ers, 7 losses since their opening day success, having a change of fortune here. The Cardinals, even taking account plenty of injury issues they have suffered, have perhaps been disappointing at 3-4-1 this year but they won at the 49ers by 12 back in Oct and last time the two met in Phoenix the Cardinals dealt out a 47-7 crushing. The 49ers have conceded 33pts or more in 6 of 7 of their defeats, over 40 three times. With the Cardinals possessing the 4th biggest rusher this year in David Johnson the 49ers look up against it again. Cardinals 11-20, Johnson for the TD but the 17s with PP on newly "promoted" JJ Nelson tempting.

Cowboys @ Steelers... the 7-1 Cowboys have won all 4 road games and have the NFL's leading rusher in Elliott. They visit a Steelers team that have lost their way somewhat and are on a 3 game losing streak. The Steelers are probably a better team than their 4-4 record suggests though and they really need to win this one. They are likely to come out on a mission and when having Roethlisberger at QB they have won their three home games by an average of over 18pts. For me this is the Cowboys biggest test to date. They might pass it with flying colours but I have a hunch the Steelers will have the more strength of will on the day. Steelers 1-10. Brown.

Seahawks @ Patriots... the Seahawks have won only once on the road, at the Jets, and, though still a decent enough team, to me they are not the force of not so long ago. The Patriot bandwagon continues to roll, having won all but one this season. While the Seahawks have generally competed in tight games this year, the Patriots have generally been winning with some authority. I think they will do so again here and it could be an 11-20 game, Blount.

Bengals @ Giants... the Bengals are possibly better than their 3-4-1 record suggests, having had some tough games to deal with in the first half of the season. They visit a Giants team who have won their last three and should be in confident mood but I am a little dubious as to the strength of those successes. The Bengals come off a bye week and I think they might surprise the unconvincing Giants. Both pass offences have decent records but their pass defences do not so it might be a game with plenty points. Bengals, 1-10. Eiffert.

Three of my many different wagers...

H'cap atc... Falcons +1 / Redskins -3 / Saints -2.5 / Chargers -3.5

I have done these 5 as first TD scorer in doubles n up (PaddyP)...
Forte (Jets) / Stewart (Panthers) / Murray (Titans) / Gordon (Chargers) / Johnson (Cardinals)

I have done doubles and up on winning margins 11-15 and/or 16-20 on the Saints, Redskins, Chargers and Falcons (Paddy P)

Do I expect to win, nope but I hope and it won't matter if it rains!

Tried to include a bit more this week so apologies for the even longer than usual waffle

Steelers @ Browns... the Steelers have lost 4 on the run so probably a good time for them to visit the winless Browns. Given the troubles the Steelers themselves are having though it might be relatively tight and I'll go with the 1-10 point win for the Steelers. Their pass offence, ranked 5th, has been much more potent than their running offence and with the Browns ranked 2nd to bottom defensively in both pass and rush it might be sensible to stick with 7 TD man Brown for the opening TD. For thse wanting atcs or happy to back short odds, Brown as an anytime scorer would be my "safe" bet.

Ravens @ Cowboys... the Ravens have won their last two and are unlikely to make things easy for the 8-1 Cowboys, they possess the 4th ranked pass defence and top it against the run. Added to that, they have had a longer rest. Their problem is scoring but they have a chance if they can contain the Cowboys number 2 ranked rush offence. That said, the sensible play has to be the Cowboys who have plenty of weapons. I'll go with them 1-10. I hope that Elliott will find a way through for the opening TD, but with the Ravens no doubt paying him much attention, and given that they allow more pass TDs than rush TDs, it might pay to have a saver on Beasley or another WR.

Jaguars @ Lions... the 2-7 Jaguars are on a 4 game losing streak and visit the Lions who have taken advantage of the faltering Vikings and Packers to tie for the division lead at 5-4, winning 4 of their last 5. They have usually left it late and rarely win by many and the Jaguars don't usually end up on the end of a thrashing so I'll go 1-10 Lions. With the Jaguars defence statistically stronger against the pass than the run, it might be worth chancing Riddick, who has missed much of the season through injury, for the TD opener in the hope that he starts to improve the Lions rush offence. The Jags with a +6.5 handicap is worth consideration as is under 47.5 total points.

Titans @ Colts... the Titans have won 4 of their last 6, the Colts 3 of their last 5 during which time the Colts won by 8pts in Nashville in week 7. Both come off wins against the Packers, the Colts more convincingly in GB than the score suggested and then having their bye week and the Titans thrashing GB in Nashville last week. Could go either way, but with home advantage and the confidence of that week 7 win I marginally favour the Colts. They also hold a "voodoo sign" over the Titans... they have won in 15 of their 16 meetings including all of the last 10. The Titans though are ranked first in rushing offence so Murray will probably have another big game. Likely to be a high scoring affair, Colts 1-10, TE Doyle was fairly involved in week 7 and at 16s looks a little value to get the first TD. Murray scoring Team 1st TD for the Titans (or overall) is worth considering and a "safe" bet could be for him to be an anytime scorer. On recent scores, over 52.5pts might also be a right play.

Bills @ Bengals... difficult call. The Bills have lost their last 3 but that includes defeats to the Patriots and Seahawks and had won 4 on the bounce before this losing streak. The Bengals, though only losing by a point last week and finishing in a tied game (they should probably have won) the week before, have only beaten the Browns in their last 5 games but have not lost to a team thus far that is not having a winning season. The Bills have won only 2 of their last 9 on the road and have lost three consecutive games to the Bengals. The Bengals can be explosive on their day. The problem is they continue not to be. I'm going to chance a Bills upset. They were ok offensively in the last 3 against decent opponents and the Bengals just keep failing to fire. The Bills have the number 2 ranked rushing offence and despite all the negative "signs", that might prove the difference. Taylor from QB is always a possible (and is perhaps worth chancing at 22s with WH) but I'll go with McCoy for the TD in a 1-10 Bills win. Harvin coming out of retirement for the Bills is worth a nibble at 40s with WH.

Buccaneers @ Chiefs... the Chiefs are on a run of 5 straight wins and are 4/4 at home. Taking those runs back into last season's regular games they have won their last 10 at home and are overall 17-2 in their last 19 games. Despite all that, they are ranked as low as 26th for total offence, 12 slots below the Buccs. Defensively the comparison favours the Chiefs, 5 places ahead of the Buccs but still only getting them to 22nd place. The Buccs are capable of giving anyone a game and this one does have a whiff of underdog about it, especially as the Buccs have won their last 4 meetings with the Chiefs spanning 24 years. A Buccs win would not be the season's biggest shock and the +7.5 they have on the handicap could be a good call. But, all that said, the runs the Chiefs are on can't be ignored and I will go with them 1-10. I'll chance Hill for the TD. First TD scorer odds of 40s with WH about Chiefs QB Smith is worth a nibble and an alternative to Hill is Kelce at 14s with WH.

Bears @ Giants... the 2-7 Bears are a struggling team. They have scored more than 20pts once this season (23) and average only around 15 pts per game. They have lost all 5 on the road and their top wide receiver is suspended for the next 4 games. They visit a Giants team that have won 4/5 at home and are on a 4 game winning streak. They have not won a game by more than a TD, a total of 21pts over the 6 wins but they are getting the job done. That stat may change this week though as I think the Bears will struggle for points while the Giants will have openings. Tempted to go big but I will stick to an 11-20 win, Beckham to be the focal point of the attack and hopefully get the opening TD. For him to score an anytime TD is another "safe" bet for consideration. Total points under 44 points might also be a profitable route.

Cardinals @ Vikings... the Vikings losing run has now hit 4 and they continue to struggle to find consistent offensive play series resulting in points. They are averaging only 14pts scored over their last 4 games. The even worse news is that they are up against the 2nd ranked overall defence in the NFL. They are ranked 3rd themselves but are up against the 7th ranked offensive whereas their own props up the rest of the NFL in 32nd. Think the Cardinals can win 11-20 and David Johnson will be the TD choice with JJ Nelson nibbled at WHs 22/1. With two statistically strong defences, going under the 40pts total scored looks sensible.

Dolphins @ Rams... the Rams look like starting with a new QB to try and kick start their offence which has managed just 29pts in their last three games but it will probably again come down to whether their defence can stop the opposition offence sufficiently, which they succeeded in doing last week for their first win in 5. The Dolphins though, even away, look to be a different proposition to the Jets. They have won their last 4, against some not so bad teams, and put up about 30pts in each. They appear to be a team moving in the right direction, I'll go 1-10 Dolphins. The Rams are perhaps a little more vulnerable to the run currently so I'll take the inform Ajayi to get the first TD but, being the Rams, will nibble the big price about no TD scorer. As the Rams are involved, going under 39.5 total points could be beneficial.

Patriots @ 49ers... The 1-8 49ers might not be sending Seattle any Christmas cards this year. With the Seahawks winning in New England last week the Patriots might arrive in California in even more determined mood than usual to emphasise their Superbowl credentials, the 49ers look to be in for another difficult game. Even though they are likely to be without Gronkowski at TE this week and have a couple of WR issues, the Patriots should be much to strong, 12 TD Blount is little value so at twice the price I'll chance Bennett to fill in at TE and get the opening TD in a 11-20 or bigger win. Bennett (and Blount) look fairly sound "safe" bets as anytime scorers. With their WR issues, Mitchell of the Patriots might see some game time and the 50s first/last TD scorer with WH is worth a nibble and the 7/1 anytime scorer worth considering.

Eagles @ Seahawks... both teams come off good (surprising to me!) wins last week. The Eagles though are 1-4 on the road this season and they will have to bring their home form to Seattle if they are to win, they have only beaten the Bears away and have lost to some mediocre opposition in the process of losing their last 4 road games. The Seahawks are 4/5 at home and confidence will no doubt have been boosted by their victory at the Patriots. I take them to win 1-10. Their regular RB Michael has been released with impending return of Rawls to RB and the emergence of rookie Prosise. The Eagles though seem to be more vulnerable this season to passing TDs, with Baldwin getting 3 last week, I'll stay with him and hope the streak continues.

Packers @ Redskins... America seems to be waking up to what your regular columnist has been saying for weeks lol, the Packers are struggling! Three straight losses now and 4 in the last 5 with three consecutive losses on the road. They travel to the Redskins who have lost only one in their last seven, winning their last three at home. Their 4th ranked passing offence may again give the Packers plenty of headaches and unless Rodgers and the Packers offence chooses this week to bounce back, the Packers could be in for another sound beating. Redskins 11-20, Crowder is my TD choice but it was a toss-up between him and Reed. Either as an anytime scorer looks probable to me and over 50 total points looks a likely outcome imo. Redskins win at -3 handicap is another probable.

Texans @ Raiders... not quite sure how the Texans are 6-3 but they nevertheless are and gained their first road victory in 4 games with last week's win at the Jaguars. They will find the Raiders much tougher this week. The home side come off a bye week having won their last 3 and boast a 7-2 record. I think they will have too many guns for the Texans. The visitors are ranked 2nd in defence against the pass but muxh less convincing against the run so it may be worth going with Murray for the first TD in an 11-20 Raiders win. The game is being played in Mexico City I believe.

I have done plenty bets involving most of the things commented on (and a few not commented on) but I think I have written enough so... thanks for reading and hope it helps anyone playing. Doubled my money last week, will settle for trebling it this week!

Engels, I honestly dont understand a thing about the AFL, but I really enjoy reading your analysis. And I will follow on a couple "biggy tips"