Saturday. Christmas Eve, games:
Vikings @ Packers... The much heralded early return of Adrian Peterson back-fired badly as the Vikings were mauled by the Colts last week in an unexpected rout. To make matters worse, Peterson is injured again and out of this one. The loss leaves the Vikings play-off chances as "unlikely" and they must beat the Packers here to have any hope. They have lost 7 of their last 9 overall and 4 of their last 5 on the road. The Packers nearly had their own rude awakening last week, throwing away a 17 point lead at the start of the 4th quarter. They had to rely on a Rodgers-Nelson 60 yard connection with 20 seconds to play to allow them to get the winning field goal. It gave them their 4th consecutive success and, with the Lions losing, the Packers will now win the NFC North division if they beat the Vikings and then the Lions in week 17. The Redskins loss moved the Packers into a wild card spot as 6th seed. There is no real room to manoeuvre though and the unknown mobility of QB Rodgers is a big worry. Their 4th quarter defence also raises concerns with memories of their total disarray defensively a month or two back not so distant. That said, the Vikings collapse against the Colts and overall current form suggests that they are up against it. Defensively, despite last week's rout, they are ranked 3rd against the pass so, as with last week, and with concerns over Rodgers' mobility, it might again pay to go with Montgomery for the opening TD. He had a very good individual game against the Bears and if continuing recent form, he will be a threat. The 9s about Nelson is tempting though and Ripkowski is again possibly an outsider to consider around 33s. With Peterson out, the 20s B365 have for Viking RBs McKinnon and Asiata are decent value if you want to go that route. In the hope Rodgers is fit enough to be effective, I'll take the Packers 11-20.
Titans @ Jaguars... The Titans fine late win at the Chiefs last week keeps them right in the AFC South division race. It was their 3rd straight win and their second successive win on the road. The Jaguars blew a 12 point second half lead against a Texans side playing a back-up QB. Their 9th consecutive defeat. They have lost their last four at home. They have also fired their coach. The Jaguars looking for a new coach and planning for next season. The Titans fighting to get in the play offs. Even without those facts, on form the Titans would be strong favourites. The Jaguars are still rated 4th against the pass and and with the Titans strength being their 3rd ranked run offence, it makes sense to anticipate that is where they will win the game against the 21st ranked rush defence. Consequently, I have gone with The price on Murray for the opening TD but Henry might be worth considering, he only carried the ball half as much as Murray in the win over the Chiefs but scored both TDs. The Titans beat the Jaguars 36-22 in October and I think the points differential may be similar here. Titans 11-20.
Jets @ Patriots... The Jets hefty loss to the Dolphins last week was their 5th defeat in 6 and their 4th game in 5 where they have scored 17 or less. The other was 23 at the 49ers. The Patriots secured a first round bye in the play offs with victory at the Broncos. They have conceded more than 17 only once in their last 5 games and won at the Jets last month. They are on a 5 game winning streak. Their 16-3 win over the Broncos was their lowest points scored in 10 games. Unless the Patriots take it easy prior to the play offs, which I think unlikely to any huge degree, then this would look like a banker win for them. The Jets strength offensively is running, they are ranked 11th (though Forte's participation is again in doubt) but, they meet the 3rd ranked rush defence and opportunities will probably be limited. Defensively they rank 14th against the run and 21st against the pass. With the Patriots offensively ranking 7th rushing and 4th passing, TDs could come from anywhere. Against the strong Broncos pass defence, the Patriots ran the ball but it was interesting that they used Lewis frequently. Why and will it be repeated, I have no idea. Edelman seems to be the main receiver target but he is not a prolific TD scorer, only 2 this season. As with last week, it may be that the passing game gets the Patriots close and then an RB takes it home, Blount is pretty short so Lewis could be a decent option. If, and it may be a big if, he is given the same amount of work as last week, the 17s offered by PP is big and will be my somewhat risky play. Patriots 11-20.
Chargers @ Browns... The Browns, not totally unusually, showed early fight before going down heavily at the Bills to go 0-14 for the season. They have not mustered more than 13 points in any of their last 6 games and the 23 points they conceded to the Bengals two weeks ago was the lowest total scored against them all season. The Chargers went down narrowly to the Raiders for a 3rd successive defeat and if the Browns are to win one this season it looks like it will have to be here.The Chargers offence has not been firing on all cylinders for much of the season, partly injury related, and with their season effectively over, a Browns win would not shock me as much as perhaps it should. I can't see it though, the Browns just haven't been good enough and the Chargers should have too many guns for them. Chargers 11-20 with T Williams my "lucky dip" choice for the TD opener.
Redskins @ Bears... The Redskins loss to the Panthers dealt their play off hopes a big blow and they are now seeded only 8th in the NFC, a half-game back of the Packers and Buccs. It was their 3rd defeat in 4 and they have won only 1 of their last 5 on the road. The Bears continue to improve in performance, they had a rough 3rd quarter against the Packers with turnovers costing them dear but they staged a strong comeback, recovering from a 17 point deficit at the start of the 4th quarter before ultimately losing to a Rodgers bomb-pass which led to a late field goal. It was their 5th defeat in 6 and 8th in 10. All 3 of their wins have been at home. The Redskins have faltered quite badly of late, possibly due to not dealing with the pressures of competing for the play offs. They could easily bounce back with one final effort but my hunch is perhaps their season is blown. Their 2nd rated pass offence may also find the 6th rated pass defence not so easy to overcome in likely freezing temperatures and it may be that their running game, with Keeley their main man, poses a bigger threat, Montgomery of the Packers certainly found holes in the Bears defence. Their own defence is the issue, 22nd against the run and 24th against the pass. With the Bears competing much better of late they could take advantage. I'm going to go for an upset here and go with a Bears win 1-10. Howard could be a danger running but I'll chance Jeffrey for the TD. Another Bears WR, Deonte Thompson is unlikely to have the game he did last week but with 30s available, he is worth a nibble in case it is repeated.
Falcons @ Panthers... The Falcons took a stronger hold on the NFC South division as they brushed aside the 49ers and the Buccs went down at the Cowboys. It was the Falcons 3rd win in 4. They have scored less than 24 only once this season and beat the Panthers 48-33 in week 4. The Panthers win at the Redskins keeps their remote play off hopes alive but they are effectively out of it. It was their 2nd successive win and they have won 3 of their last 4 at home. Since their bye week they are 5-3, they were thrashed at Seattle but lost the other two by only 3 to both the Chiefs and the Raiders. The Panthers rush defence, ranked 3rd, might keep the Falcons 8th ranked rush offence under a measure of control. Their greater problem would appear to be through the air, their pass defence is the worst ranked in the NFL and it is up against the 3rd ranked pass offence. That stat alone would often lean me heavily towards the Falcons. And it is quite possible they will win big, especially with top WR Jones back in the mix. But, the Panthers, bar one game, have been competitive or better since their bye week and seem to be in fairly decent form and I have a hunch for them winning this one. Their stats would obviously be ebtter if just taken from their post-bye week games. The Falcons are ranked 30th themselves against the pass and the Panthers improving offence is ranked 18th through the air and 10th rushing (Falcons 15th defensively). I think it might be another high scoring game but I give the edge to the Panthers, 1-10. TD options are plentiful, I'll chance Newton getting them close and. though he may run it in himself, I'll go with Stewart to get the opener.
Dolphins @ Bills... The Dolphins convincing victory at the Jets gave them an 8th win in 9 and moved them up to 6th seed in the AFC play off picture and thus into a wild card slot. They defeated the Bills 28-25 in October. The Bills victory over the Browns keeps them in with a slim chance of a play off spot however unlikely. With the Dolphins win last week and recent record I was surprised to see the Bills such strong favourites here but I also like them in this one. The Bills have always had at least two consecutive wins or losses this season, last week's win broke a 2 game losing streak so if the run is to continue, they would win here. But that probably irrelevant stat is not the only reason I can see a Bills win. Replacement QB Moore got the job done for the Dolphins last week but it was something of a strange performance, he made only 12 completions in just 18 attempts, mostly to TEs, but it gained the Dolphins 52 and 66 yard TD receptions. He might not find the long TD passes so easy to make against a Bills defence ranked 8th against the pass and freezing weather conditions predicted. Miami have not won in Buffalo since 2011. This may then be the week that they rely on Ajayi, the Bills run defence is ranked only 27th. Ajayi had two 200+ yard games just prior to the Dolphins bye week when perhaps he was a little of an unknown force. He ran up 111 the week after the bye but then went 79, 77 and his best in 4 games since is 61. The 111 was against the Jets, last week he managed less than half that number against the same team. He did though get one of the 200+ yardages against the Bills and if they have not learned their lesson, they could be in trouble. So Ajayi could return to form and perhaps lightning could strike twice for Moore (or a different and consistent game-plan could work) but they are big "ifs" for me. With the Dolphins running defence ranked even lower, 30th, and the Bills rushing offence still at No 1, McCoy, Taylor and Gillislee (who cheated me of the first TD scorer last week) could give the Dolphins plenty of trouble. Recent overall form and the Dolphins needing the win suggests an away success. But, I think the Bills will win and it could be as much as 11-20. I will again be with McCoy for the opening TD.
Colts @ Raiders... The Raiders win at the Chargers last week secured them at least a play off berth and, along with the Chiefs loss to the Titans, it has given them back control of the AFC West division. It was their 7th win in 8 and they have won their last 4 at home. The Colts surprising rout of the Vikings keeps them alive in the hunt for the AFC South title but they remain a game behind the Texans and Titans and, in truth. progress for them now looks unlikely. They are on something of a win/lose/win/lose streak, indeed from week 2 they have done exactly that except for a win either side of their bye week. They have though won their last 4 on the road. It will probably come down to how many points QB Luck can get with his 7th ranked passing team up against the 26th ranked passing defence. He will likely need plenty though because the other way, the Raiders are ranked 6th offensively for both the run and the pass while the Colts defence is ranked 20th and 27th respectively. I think it will probably be a high scoring game but the Raiders will likely have too many guns for the somewhat one-dimensional Colts. Could be close though, Raiders 1-10. I've gone with Murray for the TD but gave Crabtree plenty consideration again.
49ers @ Rams... The 49ers suffered their 13th consecutive loss last week and have lost all 7 on the road. The Rams loss to the Seahawks was their 5th straight and 9th in 10. They have lost their last 5 at home. Not exactly a clash of the titans. The Rams have scored over 14 points just once in their last 8 games and in 6 of them they have managed only 10 or less. Their last 4 games give points totals for/against of 48 - 141 which equates to an average score of 12 - 37. The 49ers are not much better, 60 - 121, average score of 15 - 30 and the Rams have had the tougher fixtures. No big analysis for such a poor game though, my hunch is for the 49ers if only because, somewhat incredibly, they still have the 4th ranked rush offence in the NFL. I will go with them 1-10 and Hyde is the logical choice for the TD.
Cardinals @ Seahawks... The Cardinals have been officially eliminated from the play off picture, a poor effort from a season much was anticipated. Defeat to the Saints was their 4th in 5 and they have lost 5 of 6 games on the road, only winning at the 49ers. The Seahawks have clinched the divisional title and have won all 7 at home this season. The two teams tied 6-6 in Arizona in October. Maybe the Cardinals will feel the pressure off a little, maybe the Seahawks will ease up a little with the division secured. I think both scenarios are unlikely, especially as the Seahawks will still want to secure the best NFC seeding they can get. The Cardinals still look pretty strong statistically and they certainly have weapons that can win any game. But, the stats seem to have hidden a brittleness to them this season and I think the Seahawks can win this one with a little to spare. Again the stats make selecting a TD scorer more difficult, Rawls has done well since coming back so I have taken the 13/2 on him. The 16s at B365 about Lockett is worth considering. Seahawks 11-20.
Buccaneers @ Saints... the Buccs loss at the Cowboys ended their 5 game winning streak and could be very costly, they are now only seeded 8th in the NFC play off picture and a game behind the Falcons for the South division. It was their first loss in their last 5 away trips. The Saints offence got back into gear in a high scoring victory at the Cardinals, their first win in three and only their 2nd in 6. Their play off hopes still hang by that ever-weakening thread. Realistically, it is the Buccs that need to win this one and I think they will. It is another game where the stats somewhat confuse matters, the Buccs do not rate particularly well in any specific area but have nevertheless been decent this year. Their pass defence, ranked 20th, is likely to concede points to the No 1 ranked pass offence but they have faced similar scenarios earlier in the season and found the way to win games. The way to do so here might be through the air, although they are only ranked at 16, the Saints pass defence is ranked the 2nd worst in the NFL. I take the Buccs 1-10, Evans always a threat but I think Brate is possibly the value option at 12s.
Bengals @ Texans... Texans QB Osweiler was benched in the 2nd quarter and back-up Savage led the Texans to a comeback 1 point victory over the Jaguars last week. It was a vital win with both the Titans and Colts recording impressive wins. The Texans remain in poll position in the AFC divisional title race. With a visit to the Titans on the last day of the regular season, a win this week is again vital. They are now 6-1 at home. It seems likely that Savage will start this one as the QB. The Bengals got off to a flying start against the Steelers but were gradually worn down by field goals until a late TD sealed their fate. That ended their two game mini-resurgence but they have also lost 5 of their last 6 on the road, only winning at the Browns two weeks ago. They are out of the play off picture. With their respective home/away records, and the importance of the win to the Texans, I expect the Texans to find a way of beating the improving all-too-late Bengals but it is no banker imo. The Bengals are offensively ranked 10th (run) and 15th (pass) and meet a defence ranked 16th and 2nd respectively. The Texans are 5th ranked rushing but in truth they are more workmanlike than explosive with only 6 TDs from the run this season, Miller being the chief carrier, but they might find a 27th ranked Bengals rush defence in obliging mood. The Texans are ranked 30th for passing but Savage threw 23 completions in 36 attempts for 260 yards, not bad, especially when considering, despite their poor overall record, the Jaguars are ranked 4th against the pass. The Bengals are ranked 13th. I am going with the Texans, 1-10 and and I am chancing returning TE Fiedorowicz for the TD. There is some doubt as to whether RB Miller will play which strengthens my thoughts of going with a receiver for the TD. But, it may also mean there is value about the 28s offered by Sky about Blue, though he had a surprisingly quiet role last week. Hunt at 40s with 888 and a couple of others might also be worth a nibble. Griffin, with 8 receptions last week is likely to see less plays because of Fiedorowicz's return but at 22s might be worth a try. With Eifert out for the Bengals, the 22s at WH about Uzomah might be value and Burkhead at 25s is also possible based on increasing workloads of late.
Ravens @ Steelers... Sunday, Christmas Day. Possibly the biggest game of week 16. The Steelers hold a one game lead over the Ravens in the AFC North, victory for the Ravens though would give them the advantage, having already defeated the Steelers 21-14 in early November, their 4th successive win against the Steelers and their 9th in 12. The Steelers came from a long way back against the Bengals last week, somewhat tortuously edging themselves closer with a series of field goals before finally getting a TD to seal the win. It was their 5th win in succession. The Ravens are currently seeded 7th but this is really a must win game for them. They were also somewhat fortunate to beat the struggling Eagles last week, the visitors failing on a 2-point conversion attempt when a point after kick would have tied the game and probably resulted in OT. Nevertheless, it was their 3rd win in 4 and 5th in 7. They have though lost their last 4 on the road (Patriots, Cowboys, Jets and Giants) and finish with another away game at the Bengals. The Ravens do seem to plan well against the Steelers though, they have won their last 4 meetings and 9 of the last 12. A game that really could go either way, with their superior record in these games and the fact that they must win, I am very tentatively siding with the Ravens 1-10 and even more tentatively going with main RB West for the TD with a saver on Dixon.
Broncos @ Chiefs... Sunday, Christmas Day. Another big match up. The Chiefs late loss to the Titans handed the AFC West initiative back to the Raiders whom they now trail by one game. they are still in a strong position to at least take a wild card place but defeat could leave them with a nervous last week when they may possibly have to win at the Chargers. It was their first loss in 4 bit their 2nd home defeat in 3, having previously been almost invincible on home soil. The Broncos are up against it now and really need two wins to finish the season if they are to have any chance of progressing. their loss to the Patriots last week was their 3rd loss in 4 and they have only managed a total of 13 points in their last two outings. I say it most weeks, the Broncos often win when they really need to. I also say that the Chiefs do not figure well when it comes to the statistics but their record continues to defy those figures. I like the Chiefs here, I think the Broncos may have gone one step beyond and possibly now have doubts about their ability to rebound. Tempted to forecast bigger but I will stick with 1-10. With the Broncos rush defence ranked 29th and their pass defence at 1st, Chiefs RB Ware is the obvious TD choice but QB Smith at up to 33s is worth considering.
Lions @ Cowboys... Monday, Boxing Day. The Cowboys look good to secure home field advantage throughout their play off progression although currently they have still only secured a play off position. They held off a Buccaneers rally to return to winning ways last week and now stand at 12-2 and have won their last 6 at home. The Lions chances of the play offs took a blow with defeat at the Giants, their first defeat in 6, allowing the Packers to close within a game. With the two meeting in Detroit on the last game of the season both teams have their destiny in their own hands. The Lions have a chance if they can get their 12th ranked pass offence to take advantage of the Cowboys 28th ranked pass defence but the Cowboys are likely to again control much of the ball with their running game, much will depend on how the Lions 11th ranked rush defence can cope with the Cowboys 2nd ranked rush offence. I have to be with the Cowboys, I think they are the better team and again Elliott with Prescott as back up maybe the way to go regarding the TD play. But, I am not taking 9/2 about Elliott in this one, I'll chance Bryant at 9s and have a little on Prescott. If Riddick doesn't play for the Lions, Zenner at 28s might be value though he would still likely only play second fiddle RB to Washington.
looks like on Thursday 22and dec. the giants should win this game against the eagles by 3 which the giants a favored by and the eagles are out of contention BUT the teams are evenly matched so a late score is what is called for by the giants....30-26...this could be a high scoring game...teams that MUST win this week are carolina, miami, washington, the colts, houston BUT cincy is the better team...on x-mas baltimore, denver,and the lions though the cowboys are the better team ... 
