American Football League 2018/2019

Sad to say it is the final week of the regular season so, after today, betting opportunities dwindle for another 8/9 months or so!

And the last week is always packed with extra risk, simply because many of the teams who have secured play-off spots already rest a lot of their usual starters, either in full or part, and it is often a lottery guessing which players, how long for etc etc. It can make a mockery of the stats and it is quite common for there to be a few "shocks" about, so try yo keep that possibility in mind if you read the latest encyclopedia below it does also throw up a couple of potential chances of bigger prices on the TD bets though, but a lot of it involves guesswork which could be completely wrong! Basically, take the leap and hope or tread carefully.

Anyway, there's enough waffle to follow so I'll shut up now, here's my take on how week 17 might go...

Ravens @ Bengals... The Ravens hopes of advancement ended in the last few dramatic seconds at the Steelers last week effectively leaving this match as a dead rubber. It was the Ravens 5th straight defeat on the road. The Bengals lost a tight game at the Texans and though they have lost their last two, they have been better in the 2nd part of the season. They may have lost 5 of their last 7 but none of those defeats were by more than 5, the Ravens beat them 19-14 in week 12, and they have met some of the stronger sides recently. The Ravens have the edge statistically, they are ranked 26th for the rush (Bengals 22nd defensively) and 11th passing (Bengals 11th defensively), the Bengals are 17th rushing (Ravens 2nd defensively), 16th pass (Ravens are 10th defensively). Despite that, I am going tentatively with the Bengals here, 1-10 and it may be a low scoring game. I suspect the Ravens will be somewhat deflated after last week and the Bengals, possibly improving all too late, might be meeting them at the right time, especially when taking into account the Ravens record on the road. Bengals 1-10. Burkhead has been an increasing influence and will be the main RB, chanced at 10/1 for the TD opener. With AJ Green and Eifert not about, also took a little of the 12s on LaFell.

Texans @ Titans... The Titans surprise defeat at the Jaguars ended their season, ensured the Texans were confirmed the AFC South division winners and turned this game into one of little consequence. The Texans beat the Titans 27-20 in week 4 with Murray's 95 yards rushing for 2 TDs in a losing cause. Having looked as though their season was finishing with a whimper following 3 straight defeats, the Texans rediscovered some form and have won their last 3. They are 2-5 on the road. The Titans are almost the opposite, having looked like they were finishing strongly they were soundly beaten by the Jaguars last week ending a 3 match winning streak. They have won their last 3 at home. They will be without QB Mariota here but it may not be of huge consequence as the Titans have been much more effective running the ball, they are ranked at 3 for rush offence. That said, they were surprisingly ineffective at the Jaguars and finding ways through the Texans 13th ranked rush defence might encounter some problems. The Texans are ranked 6th offensively for the run themselves, they meet the 5th ranked defence. it is quite possible the running game of both sides is somewhat negated by the opposing defence. Added to which, Texans RB Miller, who missed last week, might be given extra time to recover and miss this game too. It all may lead to the QBs having little option but to throw more and there are two relatively new QBs at the helm. New Texans QB Savage has thrown the ball competently and not given up an interception yet, but has also yet to throw a TD, he faces the 31st ranked pass defence here. On the other hand, new Titans QB Cassell did throw an interception last week after replacing Mariota. A quick check of his playing history indicates that he is not averse to throwing the odd wayward pass. He is up against the Texans 2nd ranked pass defence and that may be significant. This really could go either way, I think it likely to be a low scoring game and though the Titans are favourites, despite their enforced QB change, I am inclined to side with the Texans. They are on a good winning streak and they will want that to continue into the play offs, they face a team that will possibly be deflated, their defence might strangle the Titans into playing into their defensive strengths and they face a pass defence that may present them with opportunities other teams have not. I am surprising myself somewhat by going Texans by 11-20. RB Blue is likely to see plenty of the ball again, I have done a saver on him but will take my chances again on TE Fiedorowicz to get Savage a first TD connection. I will also do the Texans defence/special teams in the hope they can come up with a pick 6.

Panthers @ Buccaneers... The Panthers have been a difficult team to assess week by week and their inconsistent performances have made them a team to avoid when betting if possible. Their pretty emphatic defeat by the Falcons last week extinguished their thin chances of progressing. They are 2-5 on the road and lost to the Buccs 17-14 in week 5. The Buccs still have the slightest of hopes of reaching the play offs but it is an extremely remote chance. They will nevertheless no doubt be wanting to win to allow themselves the opportunity of that happening. Their costly loss to the Saints last week was their 2nd successive defeat following a 5 game winning streak, they have won their last 3 at home. Much depends on which Panthers shows up but I am going with the Buccs, they have been the more consistent, the recent home/away records also edge me towards them and they need to win, however tenuous the chance of them getting into the play offs is. The Panthers have the worst ranked pass defence in the NFL so the 15th ranked passing attack of the Buccs might find opportunities, Buccs 11-20. Evans is the obvious choice and given his 11 catching TDs this season, 7s seems decent value. The Panthers have allowed TDs to TEs more than any other team (12) except the Browns so, with regular TE Brate sidelined, it may be worth chancing a little on Myers at 20s who looks, but is not guaranteed, to be the starter in his stead. Rodgers will start at RB and is also worth thinking about for the TD.

Jaguars @ Colts... both teams are out of the play-offs. The Colts have been inconsistent throughout the season and much has depended on Luck's ability to pass the ball. They continued their win/lose streak with defeat at the Raiders. They have lost 3 of their last 4 at home. The Jaguars have shown glimpses of ability but ultimately have had another poor season, hence the recent sacking of their coach. Their shock rout of the Titans though will no doubt have boosted confidence. It was their 1st win in 9 and their first game since the coach's dismissal. They have lost their last 5 on the road. The Jaguars beat the Colts 30-27 in week 4. Their 3rd ranked pass defence might prove a challenge to the Colts passing offence who rank 7th. if Luck is not able to find his men then the Colts might struggle for points, their 21st ranked rush offence has made little impact this season but do face a defence ranked only 20th. Their own defence is suspect though, ranked only 23rd (run) and 24th (pass). Fortunately for them they face a Jaguars offence which is ranked 25th (run) and 23rd (pass). The Jaguars do have the confidence of last week's success to bolster them though and I am pretty sure they will be all-out to follow up, especially with a new coach coming in. The Colts, I just have a feeling their "desire" will have gone and, especially with their defence already struggling, an "enthusiastic" Jaguars might surprise them. If Luck and his receivers are on song, the Colts could win with something to spare but i am going to go with the Jaguars to surprise again, 1-10, Allen Robinson my choice for the TD opener.

Patriots @ Dolphins... The Patriots will secure home-field advantage in the play offs with a win. They have won 6 straight, all 7 on the road and they beat the Dolphins 31-24, having led 31-3 at one stage, in week 2 when they were without Brady at QB, Blount carried for 123 yards and a TD. With the Patriots visiting, the Dolphins are no doubt grateful that results went their way last week and their play off place is secure. They helped their own cause with an OT win at the Bills where fortunes swung wildly late in the game. They have won 9 of their last 10 and 5 straight at home. Nevertheless, they still strike me as over-achievers, harsh but it has normally cost me so my loss! Here again though, I have to be with the Patriots, they are unlikely to rest key players, at least until the game is won. With a win the Dolphins might meet the Texans which they would probably prefer to meeting the Steelers so they likely won't be resting players either. The Patriots 3rd ranked rush defence could well keep Ajayi, resurgent last week, in check while their 14th ranked pass defence faces a back-up QB and pass offence ranked 26th. The Dolphins are ranked 13th against the run while the Patriots are ranked 8th offensively but the biggest discrepancy in the stats is with the Patriots 4th ranked pass offence meeting the 30th ranked pass defence. Those stats, combined with the Patriots desire to secure home advantage, and maybe make a statement to a play off rival, will see them to victory imo. I am not sure it will even be close, i will go 11-20 and in a lucky dip for which receiver will get the opening TD, I will chance Bennett, he has proved a competent replacement for Gronkowski and though he is not found particularly often, he has 2 TDs in the last 3 games and 6 for the season and the Dolphins have given up 9 TDs to TEs this term. I will also risk Lewis again, he saw plenty of the ball for the 2nd successive game last week but when they got in range, Blount took over.

Bears @ Vikings... The Bears loss to the Redskins last week was their 3rd consecutive defeat. They have lost all 7 on the road, They did though beat the Vikings 20-10 in week 8 with Howard running for 153 yards and a TD. The Vikings loss at the Packers was their 4th loss in 5 and 8th in 10. There is some controversy as to whether some of the defensive players ignored the plans drawn up by the coach and made their own plan against the Packers, it might make for an unhappy dressing room currently. The Vikings have lost 3 of their last 4 at home. They have struggled to make an impact with the run without Peterson all season and they rank lowest in the NFL, something of a relief perhaps for the Bears who are ranked 27th against the run. With their pass offence ranked 18th coming up against the 5th ranked pass defence, the Vikings might again struggle for points. Despite the issues over the Packers game, the Vikings pass defence is ranked 4th and they face the Bears 13th ranked passing game. On the ground, the Bears rank 19th and face the 15th ranked defence. I am very 50/50 but I just feel the Vikings are in a little disarray currently and the Bears might be able to take advantage. Bears 1-10 and I'll chance Howard for the TD.

Bills @ Jets... The Bills play off hopes ended despite a strong comeback against the Dolphins, the visitors levelling the scores with a rushed, late 55 yard FG and then winning it in OT, leaving this as another game with no real meaning. The Bills have lost 3 of their last 4 and they sacked their coach this week. The Jets were little short of massacred at the Patriots last week, their 6th defeat in 7. They have lost their last 4 at home and they have not scored more than 17 in any of their last 6. Going back to week 2, the Jets defeated the Bills 37-31 with Forte going over for 3 TDs in his 100 yards on the day. Bills starting QB Taylor will not be playing this week. His replacement, Manuel, has thrown 19 TDs and 15 interceptions in his very limited playing time over the past 4 years. The Jets also have a QB issue, with the recently installed Petty injured they will be starting with Fitzpatrick again, he threw another 2 interceptions after replacing Petty against the Patriots. With the Bills pass offence ranked 31 and the Jets at 27th, it may not make a huge difference. As for the run, the Bills still sit atop the rankings and face the Jets 14th ranked defence. The other way, the Jets are ranked a respectable 13th with the Bills defence a very lowly 28th. That said, Forte is out and Powell might also be, even if he plays he may not be at full force leaving the Jets very thin at RB. I think the Bills have the greater potential to cause damage and they are also ranked 7th against the pass so it is quite possible that an interception or two will come their way. I'm going 11-20 Bills and again I will side with McCoy with a saver on Gillislee. Other TD options worth consideration are the Bills defence/special teams and, though It may be less significant with Taylor out, TE Clay has been much more involved of late and it has resulted in him scoring 4 TDs in the last 3 games, he faces a team which has allowed 10 TDs to TEs this season.

Cowboys @ Eagles... The Cowboys are already assured of home field advantage through the play offs so this game is effectively of no consequence. The owner is talking about starting with their best team, they may well do so but don't be surprised if they don't play for too long. The bookies have the Eagles as favourites. The Cowboys are 13-2 having only lost to the Giants through the season. They beat the Eagles 29-23 in week 8 but only after they scored a late tying TD to allow them to win in OT. The Eagles have rallied a little in terms of performance in the last few weeks but their win over the Giants was their 1st in 5 and their 1st win at home in 3, they are 5-2 at home for the season though. Statistically the pass games are fairly evenly matched. The Eagles are a respectable 10th ranked for rushing offence but their RB options have been seriously depleted by injuries and they meet the top rated run defence. The Cowboys have the 2nd rated rushing offence while the Eagles are only 18th defensively. There are big questions around how much Elliott will be involved and although McFadden had increased carries last week he has been ill this week and his participation is in question. There are just too many questions about this game to be able to predict with any confidence. For the record, I still think the Cowboys might sneak it, 1-10 but with 4 Dallas RBs marked up at 16s or under, it really doesn't seem worth the risk guessing a TD scorer. I might include Elliot in a couple of patents in the hope he can score early.

Browns @ Steelers... The Steelers mounted a 3 TD comeback in the 4th quarter to win in the dying seconds against the Ravens to secure themselves the AFC North division, their 6th successive victory. They have not scored less than 24 in their last 7 games. They defeated the Browns 24-9 in week 11, Bell carrying for 146 yards and a TD. The Browns finally got their first win of the season against the Chargers last week, the first time they have scored 20 points in 7 games. Not much point discussing in great detail, the Browns are ranked 31st against the run and 21st against the pass. The Steelers offence is ranked 11th rushing and 5th passing. All that probably has to be, at least in part, ignored though as the Steelers are highly likely to rest certain players, QB Roethlisberger, RB Bell and WR Brown among them. Such a policy would obviously make it highly likely that the game will be closer but I would still go with the Steelers, 1-10. DeAngelo Williams has not played much at all and if fit this would give him a good chance to blow away some cobwebs, I have gone with him for the TD but I've also done a saver on Toussant who is also likely to feature at RB.

Raiders @ Broncos... The Broncos 33-16 defeat at the Chiefs was their 3rd straight loss, scoring a total of just 23 points in the process, and ended their play off hopes. It was their heaviest defeat of the season and probably for some time beyond that. They have lost their last two at home and though their schedule was tough, the defending champions have had a disappointing season. They were beaten 30-20 by the Raiders in week 9, Murray running for 114 yards and 3 TDs. The Raiders play off spot is secure but they need to win here to secure the AFC West division and a first week bye. If they lose and the Chiefs win, they will swap play off statuses. They have won 8 of their last 9 and 6 of their last 7 on the road, their win at the Chargers came at a huge cost though, QB Carr is out for what remains of the Raiders season. With Carr out the Broncos have opened us as favourites for this one. I am not so sure, in this particular game, it will make a massive difference. The Broncos still have the top-rated pass defence in the NFL, their rush defence is an incredibly low 29th. Offensively the Raiders are ranked 9th (pass) and 5th (run), it would therefore be logical to assume they will be focusing on the run. Defensively they are only 21st (run) and 25th (pass) but the Broncos are 28th (run) and 20th (pass) and there is talk that QB Siemian will have to share responsibilities with his usual back up QB Lynch. Looking at the stats I would be thinking Raiders to win, runner for the TD so maybe the loss of Carr won't be so damaging in this game. With the Broncos looking a shadow of their former selves and the Raiders needing the win for the bye, I'll chance the Raiders, 1-10 with Murray for the TD, Richard and Washington savers. Broncos defence/special teams possibly worth chancing as well.

Cardinals @ Rams... The Cardinals could well be the most annoying team of the season for me. Badly inconsistent and overall a poor season but then they come out and get a shock win at Seattle. Often impossible to predict. It was their first win in 3 and their first on the road in 5. The Rams loss to the 49ers was their 6th straight and 10th in 11. They did defeat the Cardinals 17-13 in week 4 but have clearly taken a massive fall since, they have lost their last 6 at home. With little to play for, it is likely both will be at full strength. For all their inconsistencies, the Cardinals really should win this one. The Rams are ranked 30th (run) and 31st (pass) on offence while the Cardinals are ranked 11th (run) and 5th (pass) defensively,. Although i still think those ratings flatter the Cardinals, it is difficult to see the Rams scoring many. The other way, rushing the Cardinals 15th offence meets the Rams 18th defence and passing, the Cardinals 10th offence meets the Rams 9th defence. The Rams though have been much worse than that defensively of late. Cardinals 11-20, Johnson is the obvious choice for the TD and 11/2, for me, is worth chancing this time. I have done a saver on JJ Nelson.

Chiefs @ Chargers... The Chiefs convincing victory over the Broncos secured their play off place and if they win here and the Raiders lose, they will win the AFC West division and have a bye week in the play offs. It was their 4th win in 5 and 9th in 11. They have won their last 5 on the road and conceded just 13, 19 and 10 in their last 3 games (all at home). They beat the Chargers 33-27 after OT on the opening day of the season. The Chargers year continues to conclude in very disappointing fashion as they became the Browns first victims of the season last week. It was their 4th consecutive loss and they have lost their last 3 at home. If the Chargers have a chance it again looks to be with their 6th ranked passing offence, but they have not been firing of late. They have scored 16, 16 and 17 in their last 3 and they have now lost their 5th RB to injury. With Gordon unlikely to be risked, Hillman may get the start. They strike me as a side that just wants the season finished and I have to be with the Chiefs here. They will want to ensure they win and hope the Raiders lose and, though the stats have not reflected that kindly on them all season, they have been getting the results and playing well. Chiefs 11-20 and I will go with Ware. Hill always a threat currently and QB Smith is again a big value option.

Giants @ Redskins... The Redskins will secure a play off spot if they win as their record would then be better than the team which loses the Packers and Lions game, unless those two contrive a "miracle" tie. The Redskins responded to their recent troubles with a big win at the Bears, only their 2nd win in 5. Their loss to the Panthers two weeks ago was their first home defeat in 5. They have conceded 20+ points to the opposition in all but one game this season but in their last 4, the Giants have scored only 14, 7, 17 and 19. The Giants have secured an NFC wild card spot and it is uncertain as to whether players will be rested. They lost their 2nd in 4 at the Eagles, both defeats on the road and they are 3-4 away for the season. The Redskins won 29-27 at the Giants in week 3. The Giants won't want to enter the play offs on the back of two defeats so they may go with more usual starters than some anticipate but it really is a guessing game at the moment. If the Giants play all-out to win then it could go either way. But, that is possibly unlikely and with their respective home/away records, plus the Redskins greater need, I have to go with them, 1-10. The Giants are obviously a better team than the stats would suggest, they rank 29th for the run (Redskins 25th defensively) and 17th in the air (vs Redskins 28th), while the Redskins are 14th running (vs Giants 7th) and 2nd passing (vs Giants 22nd). If both teams at least start their strongest teams it is likely to be something of a passing game and that is where the Redskins are mostly likely to win it, I will try Garcon for the TD.

Seahawks @ 49ers... The Seahawks were being talked about as the best team in the NFL not so long ago but their form really suggests that, though they can beat anyone on their day, they lack real consistency. Their loss to the Cardinals last week again emphasised the point, it was their 3rd loss in 6. It was a costly defeat and they will now need to win and the Falcons to lose for them to have a bye week in the play offs so there is unlikely to be anyone rested until the game is in the bag. They have lost their last 2 on the road. The 49ers finally got in the winner's box for the first time since the opening day of the season when defeating the equally poor Rams last week. The Seahawks beat the 49ers 37-18 in week 3 and again should have more than enough to win this one, especially as the 49ers chief threat RB Hyde is out. With their pass defence ranked at 12 (Seahawks 12th offensively) but their rush defence ranked lowest in the NFL, it seems sensible to go with Rawls for the TD even though the Seahawks are only ranked 22nd offensively for rushing. He had a poor game last week and I would expect the Seahawks would want to restore some confidence in him before the play offs begin, Seahawks 11-20.

Saints @ Falcons... The Saints have won their last two but it is too little too late to progress their season beyond this week. The Falcons have won their last three and have secured the NFC South division, they will also secure a bye from the first week of the play-offs with victory here. They won 45-32 at the Saints in week 3. Freeman ran for 152 yards in that game but it was fellow RB Coleman who ran in 3 TDs. Despite those figures, it is more likely this match-up will mostly be about passing. The Falcons are ranked 3rd offensively and are up against the 30th ranked defence. The Saints are ranked 1st and are up against the 26th ranked defence. That said, the Falcons are useful rushing too (7th) and if the Saints 12th ranked rush defence has not learned the lessons from that earlier game then there could be a repeat. I have to side with Falcons, their desire to secure a bye week in the play offs will give them an extra edge and they have been the more consistent of these two throughout the season. High scoring game and I will go 11-20 Falcons. Multitude of TD options from both sides, I will go with Coleman to continue his form vs the Saints.

Packers @ Lions... The Lions loss to the Cowboys has made this game a winner takes it all, the loser possibly gets nothing at all. The winner will be the NFC North division winner. The loser will need the Redskins to lose if they are to take a wild card spot. There would still be a remote chance of the Packers not making it if both they and the Redskins lose but I won't get into that. The Packers are on a 5 game winning streak, 2 straight on the road and have not scored less than 21 in any of their last 10. They beat the Lions 34-27 in week 3 in a game dominated by the pass, Nelson had 103 yards and 2 TDs for the Packers but was eclipsed by the 205 yards and 2 TDs Jones had in a losing cause for the Lions. The Lions loss on Monday was their 2nd straight following a run of 8 wins in 9. They have scored more than 21 only once in their last 5 but they have won their last 6 at home. They have been pretty ineffectual with the run all season and are ranked at 30, their pass offence is 14th though and will expect to score points against the Packers 29th ranked pass defence. The Packers are ranked 8th in the air, the Lions 16th defensively, and though they are only ranked 20th on the ground, they have improved recently, the Lions are 17th defensively. For me this game is all about the Packers. Their defence will need to be solid throughout, especially in the 4th quarter when the Lions offence has often come with a late charge to win games. At the other end, Rodgers and co will need to score regularly or they will leave themselves vulnerable to any late Lions charge, my impression is the Packers allow too many points late in games. My allegiance is with them though and I do think they will just about win this one but it is definitely no sure thing, Packers 1-10. The Lions have given up 10 TDs to tight ends this season and, since returning from injury, Cook has been a regular target for Rodgers, he could be a decent value cll for the TD opener.

Last TD scorers... with the possibility of there being plenty of players rested if games already look won etc or simply to give them a break before the play offs, I have tried to find a few who may get a little more playing time late in games as a result and who may thus be some value for last TD scorer, rather than first, though both are of course possible. All "educated" guess work but here's who I am trying. Most, if not all, are RBs...
C Thompson (Redskins)
Toussant (Steelers)
Hunt (Texans)
Lewis (Patriots)
West (Chiefs)
Ward (Falcons)
Washington (Raiders)
A Collins (Seahawks)
Michael (Packers)

Anygood Engles?
I've done a few in the shop,is it worth me visiting?

Bennett - Patriots
Coleman - Falcons
Burkhead - Bengals

were first TD scorers

Fiedorowicz, Smith and Williams were first team TD scorers (ie someone had got one at the other end first, blardy annoying... unless you played that particular bet with PP)

Ware didn't start

Unfortunately. Johnson and McCoy got injured early and were already back in the locker rooms by the time the first TD was scored.

Pretty sure none of the last TD scorers came in, not even sure if some of them even got a play!

I think, as in the previous week, I was ever-so-slightly up but didn't have the three in doubles or a treble... hope you did!

Raiders @ Texans - Saturday...

The potential cost to the Raiders of the loss of QB Carr during the penultimate game of the regular reason was clearly evident last week. Denver relatively cruised to victory and restricted the Raiders to just 6 points. To make matters worse, replacement QB McGloin left the game shortly before half-time through injury and the Raiders turned to another back-up QB, rookie Carr. He will start Saturday's game. In so doing he will become the first rookie to have his first game as a starter in a play-off match.

With their defence ranked 23rd against the run and 24th against the pass, which even the somewhat impotent Broncos offence managed to exploit, the Raiders really need their offence to find a way of collating points. With the QB situation that probably won't be easy and is made even harder as they face another solid defensive team in the Texans. They are ranked 12th against the run and 2nd against the pass.

The Texans have had issues at QB themselves. Savage, who took over only a few games back, had to leave last week's defeat at the Titans early with concussion. The man he replaced, Osweiler, took the field in his stead and will be the starting QB on Saturday. He has the 2nd lowest rating of starting QBs in the regular season and it is far from ideal to have the man you benched a couple of weeks ago back up at QB, but it is still a better position to be in than the one the Raiders face.

In truth, with the QB situations, there is not much point analysing the game. If the Raiders find a way to score points then it might be different but, even though they have some explosive offensive players, it is not easy to see that happening. A strong Texans defence is quite likely to do a similarly good job to the one that Denver accomplished, stop the run and force an inexperienced QB into throwing the ball. That said, the Raiders could perhaps have used their rushing team more than they did at Denver, which was a surprise given the weakness of the Denver rush defence, particularly compared to that of their pass offence. If they use them more and they find holes then the complexion of the game changes.

The Texans rarely score many but often get just enough and were 7-1 at home in the regular season. Their 12-10 victory over the Bengals in their final home game is a good demonstration of how they relied on their defence and snuck through offensively. It does also show though that, despite their QB issues, if the Raiders can score points then the Texans might be vulnerable given their frequently uninspiring offence.

All that said, it is most likely imo that it will be more of the same, the Texans defence will perform pretty solidly and though the offence probably won't score many, it will be enough for them to win.

With their rush offence ranked 8th and their pass offence a very poor 29th, it would seem sensible to go with a RB for the TD opener. Miller has been injured and quite possibly part-rested for the last two weeks and should be raring to go. The Raiders beat the Texans 27-20 in Mexico City in week 11 when Osweiler was playing but, of course, Carr was his opposing QB then and it was the latter who engineered the Raiders late rally to win a game the Texans had largely controlled. Perhaps most significantly, Murray was the Raiders most successful RB that day, he managed just 33 yards on 12 carries. Miller ran for 104 yards and a TD on 24 carries. (TE Fiedorowicz was the most successful Texans receiver, 6 catches for 82 yards). Given the QB issues no TDs or either defence are worth considering and though he will probably not get many opportunities with Miller returning, back-up RB Blue is worth a nibble at the 28s offered by Laddies.

Texans 11-20. Miller.

Lions @ Seahawks - Saturday...

The Seahawks have the ability to win the Superbowl, as they proved with their week 10 win at the Patriots. However, consistency is a big issue. That win was the middle one of 3 successive wins but they have gone LWLWLW since. They lost to the Cardinals at home in their penultimate game and then somewhat struggled to victory at the 49ers in the finale. The loss to the Cardinals was their first reverse of the season at home though.

The Lions play off place was achieved through a mid-season run of 8 wins in 9 games, six of those wins were at home (Eagles, Rams, Redskins, Jaguars, Vikings, Bears). They won away at the Vikings and Saints and lost at the Texans, the only team to reach the play offs in that list of opponents. The Lions won only one of the 8 games by more than 7 points. They ended the regular season with three successive defeats, at the Giants and Cowboys and then at home to the Packers, all three of whom are in the play offs. The fairly obvious conclusion would appear to be that they find a way to beat the lesser teams but, having lost to all 4 teams in that sequence who also made the the play offs, that they fail to do so against the stronger teams.

The Lions have made only 2 post-season appearances since 1999 and they have not won a play-off game since 1991, losing 8 consecutive play-off games. They have lost their last 3 games (2-6 total) away to Seattle.

The Seahawks are 48-13 for all home games since their coach was appointed in 2010. They have won six play-off games since 2013 (the most in the NFL) and they have won 8 straight post-season games at home since January 2005.

Depending on how you view historical influences etc that data may all mean zero but it does not make pretty reading for the Lions chances.

Indeed, the more I look at all the above the less I like the Lions. And, partly because of the inconsistency shown of late by the Seahawks, I had been edging towards a Lions upset win.

The stats also favour the Seahawks. With Riddick out for the season, it is hard to see the Lions 30th ranked rush offence suddenly coming good against the 7th ranked rush defence. Their chance would thus seem to be in the air, they are ranked 11th for pass offence. They will need to be at their best though, the Seahawks are ranked 8th against the pass.

The other way, the Seahawks have also had issues this season with their running game, they are ranked only 25th offensively. Main RB Rawls has seemingly struggled of late, averaging 1.6, 1.0 and 1.8 yards per carry in their last 3 games. He has shared duties in the last 2 games with Collins, having 8 carries to Collins 7 in each. Assuming Rawls is still seen as the main man, he will need to improve quickly if he is not to be usurped by Collins who has had averages in those 2 games of 4.0 and 7.9 yards per carry. The Lions are ranked 18th against the run. The Lions are ranked 19th against the pass and they might have more difficulty in this department as they face the 10th ranked passing offence.

I still have a nagging hunch that the Lions are going to cause an upset but all the data points to the Seahawks and if both teams play to their best then I would definitely be with the home team. On this occasion, I will stamp down on the hunch and go the logical route, even though I am not filled with huge confidence.

With the stats implying they could be most effective in the air, it would seem sensible to look there for the opening TD scorer. Baldwin is the Seahawks main receiver but TE Graham is not so far behind, together they account for 13 (7-6) of the Seahawks 23 passing TDs in the regular season. It is Graham that appeals to me most, the Lions have given up 10 TDs to TEs this season, the 3rd= most in the NFL. As the Seahawks do not have a huge range of regular TD scorers the 9s offered by PP is fair value imo. The 18s about Collins with Laddies is also possibly worth a go.

Seahawks 1-10. Graham.

Dolphins @ Steelers - Sunday...

The Dolphins finished the regular season with 9 wins in their last 11 games, a run that began with a 30-15 home success over the Steelers in week 6. WIth 5 minutes of that game remaining, Steelers QB Roethlisberger had only 83 passing yards, a late drive lifted that figure to 189. All 3 Dolphins TDs were runs with 2 of them going to Ajayi who burst on to the scene with a huge day, 204 yards. He followed up with another 200+ yards in the next game but has not been nearly so effective since, except in the return game with the Bills where he racked up another 206 yards. If, like the Bills, the Steelers fail to learn from that previous encounter then they could be in trouble.

The Steelers had started that game with a 4-1 record, though 3 of those wins had been at home and, in their previous game on the road, they had been thrashed 34-3 by the Eagles. The defeat heralded the start of a 4 game losing streak for them but they then finished the season with 7 straight wins including 3 consecutive wins on the road. Probably fair to say, the Steelers were not at their best that day and have improved since. Furthermore, they faced Dolphins starting QB Tannehill that day. There is a slim chance he will be back, from his week 14 injury, for the Dolphins on Sunday but it seems unlikely so I am assuming here that Moore will be the QB starter.

The Dolphins won their last 2 on the road, at the pretty useless Jets and then scraping home from a Bills comeback to win in OT. Their other road successes in the season were at the Rams and the Chargers, they were thumped 38-6 by the usually low scoring Ravens in week 13 and in a poor overall start to their campaign they lost at the Seahawks, Patriots and Bengals. Ignoring "when", overall they generally beat the poorer to middle strength teams and struggled against the stronger teams.

It is with Ajayi that their hopes probably rest. They are ranked only 25th through the air and meet the 16th ranked passing defence. On the ground, they rank 9th rushing and meet the 13th ranked defence.

Although the way they limited Roethlisberger in that game will give the Dolphins encouragement, the Steelers are 5th ranked for passing offence and the Dolphins 15th for defence. Perhaps even more problematical for the Dolphins, they are ranked a worrying 30th against the run and the Steelers are 15th offensively.

The teams have 13 wins each in 26 previous meetings. Of the 11 played in Pittsburgh, the home side have won 7 to the Dolphins 4. If the Dolphins can replicate their performance in that week 6 win then they would have a decent chance. I find it hard to see that happening though. They have a back-up QB starting, a pass offence which has held no great threat throughout the season and meets a strong defence and Ajayi's replay success against the Bills (ranked 29th against the run) will almost certainly be much harder to reproduce against the Steelers.

The Steelers have not really convinced me all season so it would be no great surprise to me if it were to happen. But, I think a Steelers win the much more likely scenario here. They will have to hope that their rested players get back into rhythm early but assuming that is the case, the stats indicate they are the stronger in most of the vital areas.

Additionally, they have not scored less than 24 in any of their last 8 games and they could certainly do so again here. It is not so easy to see how the Dolphins will get to 24, especially with likely temperatures making it a whole lot colder than they usually feel under the Florida sun.

Given the weakness of the Dolphins pass defence, 12 TD man Brown may add to his collection, I will have a saver on TE Green who is likely to return from injury and be the main TE target, the Dolphins have given up 9 TDs to TEs this season, the 5th most in the NFL. Another TE James is worth a nibble at 28s with Laddies as is back-up RB Williams who caught 2 TDs last week and may be thrown into the action in similar situations, the 25s at Laddies makes him worth chancing.

Steelers 11-20. A Brown.

Giants @ Packers - Sunday...

The history between these two teams dates back to 1928, the Packers have won 32, the Giants 26 and there have been 2 ties. In 1962 they met for the fifth time in the post-season, the Packers won that day for the 4th successive time. They did not meet again in the post-season until 2008 when the Giants won at the Packers, a feat they repeated in 2012.

The two teams met in Green Bay in week 5 of the regular season with the Packers winning 23-16, their first victory over the Giants in their last 4 meetings. Somewhat surprisingly, it was the Packers defence that ruled the day for the most part, restricting the Giants to just 3 FGs until Manning finally found Beckham for a TD with only 3m 45sec remaining.

That was the Giants 3rd straight loss but they then went on a 6 game winning streak which resulted in them winning 9 of their last 11, including a win at the Redskins on the last day of the season which ensured both the Packers and the Lions a passage to the play offs. That brought their on the road record for the season to 4-4 having also beaten the Rams and Browns and an opening day success at the Cowboys. Their other 3 losses were at the Eagles, Steelers and Vikings. The Giants have not scored more than 19 in their last 5 games but have conceded 10 or less in 3 of their last 4.

The Packers have won six straight and their last 3 at home and that run includes wins over 3 other teams who have made it to the play offs. They have scored 30 or more in their last 4 games, scoring 38 in both their last two home games, and have not scored less than 21 in their last 11. They have though conceded 24, 25 and 27 in their last 3.

Neither team has been particularly effective running the ball and based on the stats, that probably won't change in this meeting. The Packers are ranked 20th and meet the 3rd ranked rush defence. The Giants are ranked a poor 29th and come up against the 8th ranked defence. So, it is most likely to be a game won and lost in an aerial game. The Packers 7th ranked offence meets the 23rd ranked defence. The 17th ranked Giants offence meet the struggling 30th ranked Packers pass defence.

Part of me does side with the Giants, it may just be part "nerves" as a Packers follower, but the Packers defence has given me plenty cause for concern through much of the season and Manning is a very capable QB with some useful targets to aim at. However, the Packers offence has been firing big guns recently and, though the Giants have not been giving up many points of late, the Packers can equally, or more, cause the Giants plenty problems.

It could be a very interesting game, perhaps partly being partisan I am going with the Packers. Nelson (14) and Adams (12) have 26 of the Packers 40 passing TDs this season, though it was Cobb who was perhaps the most influential in the last meeting between these 2, taking 9 receptions. It may be that the Giants covered Nelson and Adams in strength allowing Cobb to find spaces. That may be the case again but ultimately it was Nelson and Adams who scored TDs in that game. For no great reason I'll side with Nelson even though he will be be the shorter price of the two. I will nibble again on QB A Rodgers running one in and on Ripkowski who did me a favour last week.

Packers 1-10. Nelson.

Thank you for all your write ups, Englander

Good call with the Texans Engels. Handicap 11-20 spot on. Miller also 1st TD scorer

Thanks karma. My bets really all centre around TD scorers (mostly first), anything else I do is just to maintain some betting interest during the games or it would (usually) all be over in the first quarter,

Had doubles/treble with three different bookies going on Nelson last night, went off injured before the first TD having been the Packers main target up to that point and typically, the other of the two I mentioned, Adams, then went and got the first TD for the Packers. Really frustrating as it would have been a very decent pay out. I did do a saver on Adams (and Ripkowski did me another favour at 28s by getting the last TD) but obviously didn't get the 3 doubles and a treble x 3. I guess that is gambling. Graham (Seahawks) also got banged up early, before a TD was scored, and subsequently played less of a role than he normally does, though in truth, I can't say for definite that was due to possible injury.

Still, was probably close to doubling my money again so I shouldn't really moan

:evil:

Divisional games next weekend...

Saturday
Seahawks @ Falcons (NFC)
Texans @ Patriots (AFC)

Sunday
Steelers @ Chiefs (AFC)
Packers @ Cowboys (NFC)

Patriots (the team I backed at the start of the season) should win, the other three games, based on some of the performances this weekend, look like they could be really tight. Despite my misfortune with Nelson and the Packers betting wise, their game against the Giants was one of the best I have listened to all season. Despite the lop-sided result the other way, the Giants were in almost total control until about 5 mins before half-time. They then conceded more points to the Packers in just over a half than they have to any other team this season. Packers offence is on fire, scored 38 in all their last 3 home games (but will now be on the road)... have to say that I have often criticised them defensively but they were excellent last night, though the Giants have struggled to score recently... anyway, proper waffle will hopefully follow towards the weekend

Incredible stuff Engels

As mentioned in my last post, for me anyway there appears 3 games that could go either way but it would be a major surprise if the Patriots were not to progress this week.

Given my selections which follow, it is perhaps worth mentioning that in all 4 wild card games last week, the home teams won and they outscored their visitors by 121-45. I say that partly because this week I am siding towards the away teams, also the underdogs, in 3 of the 4 games. I could easily be wrong in all of them, I hope not though!

Some but not all TD prices up, those up are all in similar price ranges, would advise an oddschecker look later if there is anyone in particular you are interested in.

Anyway, if you can be @rsed reading them, here's my thoughts...