American Football League 2018/2019

Seahawks @ Falcons - Saturday...

The teams have met 16 times before and the Seahawks hold a 10-6 advantage with a 5-3 record both home and away. Only one of those meetings came in the post season, at the same stage as this one in the 2012 season and resulted in a 30-28 win for the Falcons. They led 27-7 entering the 4th quarter but the visiting Seahawks hit back and a TD with just 31 seconds remaining gave them their 3rd TD of the quarter and a 1 point lead, only for the Falcons to go back down the field and convert a 49 yard FG to win the game with just 8 seconds left.

The teams met in another close one in week 6 of this season, the Seahawks prevailing 26-24 at home in a game that was almost the turnaround of that post-season meeting. The Seahawks this time led relatively comfortably, up 17-3 at the half only to be on the end of a 3 TD 3rd quarter from the Falcons. A 9-0 4th quarter for the Seahawks though gave them the win, secured with a FG with 1 min 57 secs remaining. It was primarily an aerial battle, Jones the most successful for the Falcons (7 receptions for 139 yards and a TD) and TE Graham for the Seahawks (6 receptions for 89 yards). Perhaps significantly, although all 3 Falcons TDs did come through passes, all three Seahawk TDs were achieved on the ground. With Rawls out, the now-Packer Michael ran in 2 and Collins 1.

Seahawks coach Carroll has a daunting 20-3-1 record in prime-time games. The Falcons must be thankful they have home advantage though, the Seahawks are 16-14 in a total of 30 play off games but, excluding their 1-2 record in neutral Superbowls, they are a worrying 3-11 on the road in those games. Their record away has improved of late though, with a 2-2 record in their last 4 and, additionally, the Seahawks have won the most ( 8 ) play-off games since 2013. The Falcons are 7-12 in all play off games and 4-3 in the ones they have hosted.

The Seahawks may have beaten the Lions last week but, with a couple of refeering decisions going their way, including most controversially for their opening TD, the win was perhaps not as decisive as the final score of 26-6 suggests. Indeed, although they kept the Lions offence in check and generally appeared in control of the game, 16 of their points only came in the final quarter and they were only one score up with around 8 minutes of the game remaining.

The main plus point for me for the Seahawks was the return to form of RB Rawls, he ran for 181 yards and a TD in 27 carries, a massive improvement on his recent efforts. The Lions were ranked 18th against the run, the Falcons are ranked 17th.

The rankings -
Seahawks pass offence 10th - Falcons pass defence 28th
Falcons pass offence 3rd - Seahawks pass defence 8th
Seahawks rush offence 25th - Falcons rush defence 17th
Falcons rush offence 5th - Seahawks rush defence 7th

The Seahawks victory over the Lions broke their WL sequence. They did lose 3 of their last 6 regular season games and had an on the road record through the season of 3-4-1. The Falcons have had the (possible) advantage of a rest week and finished the regular season with 4 straight wins and a home record of 5-3. Personally, I don't fully trust either team.

The Seahawks have shown they have the ability with some decent wins, most impressive of which was at the Patriots. That success should have given them a platform to finish the regular season strongly but instead they went 3-3. Their record away from home of 3-4-1 hardly boosts confidence and nor does their play-off record on the road. They thrashed the Panthers 40-7 at home one week and then got routed 38-10 at the Packers the next. Their offence has given me the impression of one that can be clinically methodical sometimes but is rarely explosive and then, another week, can simply be totally ineffective. Their defence is relatively strong both by reputation and statistically but in the last 4 weeks of the season, they gave up 25 points to the weak 49ers, 34 to the struggling but potentially explosive Cardinals and 38 to the recently explosive Packers. Up against another high powered offence in the Falcons, there have to be worries as to whether they are really good enough, especially on the road.

If Rawls can continue his form from last week then that will certainly help their game, especially as the Falcons rush defence ranking is similar to that of the Lions against whom he had plenty of success last week. If that happens, if the passing game is clinically methodical and exploits the weaknesses of the 30th ranked pass defence and if their own defence lives up to their possibly over lofty reputation and stats then I think the Seahawks will cause the surprise. They have demonstrated they can do it and also that they have something of a win mentality in the big games. The problem is, they are massive "ifs" and they are not easy to have great confidence in.

The Falcons are clearly best known for their offence and they have certainly amassed a load of points this season, often relying on that offence to make up for their defensive weaknesses. There is no denying the offence is one to be highly respected with plenty of dangerous weapons in their armoury but for all that, they have lost 3 times at home this season, to the Buccs, Chargers and Chiefs. Their 5 wins have been against the Panthers, Packers, Cardinals, 49ers and Saints... with their 1 point win over a, at the time, somewhat struggling Packers only secured with 30 secs remaining. Sure, there are a couple of decent enough teams in those 8 but, given the way the season went, the Panthers, Cardinals, Saints all disappointing for example, it just does not strike me, albeit more in hindsight perhaps, as that hard a schedule. Should such a high-power offence not be finishing better than 5-3 against that list of opponents? That, coupled with their poorly rated defence, does not convince me they are a good bet.

It is possible the Seahawks don't turn up and the Falcons rout them by 20, even 30 plus points. It is possible the Seahawks do turn up and possibly win by a margin even more emphatic than the 7 points they beat the Patriots by. It is possible it will go neck and neck and one team wins it with a last second FG. I don't mind admitting I am swinging one way and then the other. On top of that, either team has a number of players who could score on their first possession so the opening TD scorer is going to have to be a lucky dip.

Currently my mind has swung in this direction... I think the Seahawks defence has the potential to at least hold the Falcons offence in some sort of check. The 3rd quarter aside, they restricted the Falcons to just 3 points over 3 quarters in Seattle. I think they have the weapons that could exploit a far from great defence with their methodical style. They have been in this position many times before in recent history and got the job done. The Falcons are not the best defence of the TE position so Graham could be influential and his price will be worth a check. Given that they usually build-up to a TD so to speak and with his form last week, I think Rawls might be the name worth pulling out of the hat.

Seahawks 11-20. Rawls

Texans @ Patriots - Saturday...

The two teams have met just 8 times and the Patriots lead the series 7-1, winning all 4 games on home soil, including a play off game at the same stage in 2012. They not only thrashed the Texans 27-0 in week 3 of this season, they did so with their 3rd string QB, a rookie making his first start. He only threw for 103 yards but ran on 8 occasions with some success, he mainly relied on RB Blount to control the offensive game, running 24 times for 105 yards and 2 TDs.

The Texans only joined the NFL in 2002. They have played in 6 post-season games and have a 3-3 record but have lost both of their play off games on the road and have not yet got past this divisional play off stage. The Patriots have won 29 of 48 play off appearances, they are 18-4 at home. They have reached the play offs every year since 2001 with 2 exceptions, 2002 and 2008. They have won the Superbowl 4 times in 8 final game appearances, last doing so in 2014.

The Patriots have had the (possible) potential benefit of the bye week. They ended the regular season at 14-2 with a 6-2 home record. They won their last 3 at home in a 7 match winning streak to secure home field advantage through the play offs. They scored 30 or more points in half of their games and conceded 17 or less in 11.

The Texans pretty much controlled the entire game in last week's play off round win at home to the Carr-less Raiders. They finished the regular season at 9-7 and were just 2-6 on the road. Their highest points scored was 27 and they scored 20 or less 11 times and restricted the opposition to 20 or less 7 times.

The rankings -
Patriots pass offence 4th - Texans pass defence 12th
Texans pass offence 29th - Patriots pass defence 12th
Patriots rush offence 7th - Texans rush defence 2nd
Texans rush offence 8th - Patriots rush defence 3rd

It is hard to see where the Texans will score points. Their 29th ranked pass offence is unlikely to suddenly come good against the 12th ranked defence and, though RB Miller leads a solid running game it is not exactly prolific, they are likely to find the 3rd ranked Patriots defence keeping them in check. I can see them going TD-less, at least until perhaps the game is already lost to them.

The Texans do have a solid defence but they are not playing just another NFL side in the regular season here. I think the Patriots will be a severe test for that defence and though I think the Texans have improved since that week 3 thrashing, I can't see them stopping the Patriots from reaching the end zone a few times.

Although the Patriots TDs in that game came on the ground, Blount is a very short price and it is possibly worth chancing going against him here. That win over the Texans came when Brady was not the QB, so this game is a totally different proposition, the Patriots will obviously have much more confidence in throwing the ball here. In addition, the Texans are, statistically at least, now stronger against the run than the pass. Part of the problem is though, if you are not going to go with Blount then deciding on the right receiver is definitely not easy, a pin might be best!

Edelman is their main receiver but has only 3 TDs this season. Bennett at TE has 7 but the Texans defence is fairly strong against TEs. White is essentially more of an RB who catches, he does have 5 TD receptions though this year, at over 20s he is worth a small try. there are others too but my marginal preference is to chance Mitchell who has been consistently used since breaking into the team mid-season.

Patriots 11-20. Mitchell

Steelers @ Chiefs - Sunday...

The sides have met 32 times with the Steelers out in front 19-11 and they are 10-7 at Arrowhead. It was the Chiefs though who were victorious in their only play off meeting, a 27-24 OT home win in 1994. The Steelers have won 4 of their last 5 confrontations and though they were beaten 23-13 at the Chiefs last season, they more than compensated for that this time around with a 43-14 home win in week 4.

The Chiefs are 9-16 in play off games since 1960, they are 2-5 at home and have won the Superbowl once in 2 final appearances. Last season's wild card win over the Houston Texans was the first time they had won a play off game since they beat the former Houston Oilers at this stage in 1993, in between they suffered a run of 8 consecutive play off defeats.

The Steelers have been around since 1933 and in that time are 35-23 in play off games, excluding their 6 Superbowl wins in 8 appearances they are 8-11 on the road in the play offs.

In the week 4 game, Roethlisberger threw 5 TDs while Bell ran for 144 yards in 18 carries and had 5 receptions, he was not to get a TD though. The Chiefs gave up a couple of costly early turnovers and the Steelers never looked back, they were 36-0 up after 3 quarters.

The Steelers finished the season at 11-5, suffering a mid-season "blip" of 4 consecutive defeats before finishing with 7 straight wins which included 4 on the road in an overall 5-3 record away. They had little difficulty dispatching the Dolphins in last week's wild card game at home, Roethlisberger started with his first 7 pass attempts all being caught, amassing 162 yards, and the QB and Brown connected for 2 long first quarter TDs to give the Steelers control of the game, they ran out 30-12 winners. They have now scored 24 or more in their last 9 games.

The Chiefs finished the season 12-4 with a 6-2 home record. They were quite possibly fortunate in securing the 2nd seed and a bye week, Carr's injury leaving the Raiders more than a little exposed. They won their last 2 games and 5 of their last 7 but were 2-2 in their last 4 at home, the Buccs and Titans both finding the way to win at what had been almost a fortress to that point. Immediately following their loss to the Steelers was their bye week, it was probably needed as they had started their campaign in none too convincing fashion and they then went on a 5 game winning streak. They should be a different proposition for the Steelers on Sunday than the team which turned up in week 4.

The rankings -
Chiefs pass offence 19th - Steelers pass defence 16th
Steelers pass offence 5th - Chiefs pass defence 18th
Chiefs rush offence 15th - Steelers rush defence 13th
Steelers rush offence 14th - Chiefs rush defence 26th

I have mentioned a number of times through the season that the Chiefs are a much better team than their stats reflect, you simply don't finish 12-4 and 2nd seed in the play offs if those stats tell the whole story. That said, the Chiefs did not finish the season entirely convincingly and those 2 home losses concern me as to their chances going forward. In a way, equally, I have not been entirely convinced by the Steelers all season, they do though have the bigger star names and imo probably hold the bigger threat.

A month ago, even less perhaps, I would have sided with the Chiefs but I am now leaning more towards the Steelers. They have the confidence of that rout earlier in the season behind them and they certainly have some good momentum going into this one. The two home losses suffered by the Chiefs will also have told them that Arrowhead is no longer virtually impregnable, as it was for a year or so. They also have a lot of post season history behind them.

I have rarely called the Steelers accurately this season, or at least that is the way it feels, and I confess I would rather see a Chiefs win. But the brain is saying it will be a Steelers day and it may not even be that close. That is not to say the Chiefs are out of it, they have a very decent team with a very decent chance but my feeling is Sunday might not be their day.

It would be sensible to go with Bell or Brown for the opening TD. They both added 2 to their totals this season last week and if one of those two does not get it, then it really is a massive lottery for who might do so. The price is short at 5s but I will go with Bell, I think he might have a big day and though his main threat is on the ground, he can also make for a dangerous receiver.

Steelers 11-20. Bell

Packers @ Cowboys - Sunday...

The teams are 17-17 in 34 meetings, with the Cowboys leading 4-3 in post season games and 4-1 in home post season games versus the Packers. They last met in the play offs at this stage in Green Bay in the 2014 season when the Packers won. 1995 was the last time they met in the post season in Dallas when the Cowboys reeled off a 4th successive home play off win against the Packers.

In regular season games the Cowboys are 8-5 at home versus the Packers, their last meeting in Dallas finished in a 37-36 victory for the Packers in 2013, ending a 6 game (10 including post season games) winning streak in the series at home for the Cowboys. They have not played in Dallas since that game. The Cowboys beat the Packers 30-16 in Green Bay in week 6 this season, ending a 5 game winning streak for the Packers over their Texas rivals.

That latest defeat was the Packers worst home defeat with Rodgers as starting QB since the 37-20 post season defeat to the Giants in the 2011 season. Elliott ran for 157 yards in 28 carries but their 3 TDs were passes. Green Bay fumbled 5 times of which the Cowboys stole possession on 3 occasions and had a 4th turnover with an interception. Most unusually Cobb and primarily Montgomery were the Packers with most receptions as the Cowboys restricted Adams to just two catches, Nelson had 5. Although the Packers beat the Bears the following week they then went on a 4 game losing streak with both offence and defence struggling.

The Packers finished the season strongly though with 6 straight wins, 3 against other teams who were also to make the play offs. Their win over the Giants in last week's wild card game was their 4th win over a team to make the play offs in 6 games. They are an incredible 17-1 in turnovers in their run of 7 successive victories and have scored 30 points or more in each of the last 5. I think Rodgers has thrown for 19 TDs and no interceptions in the same period.

Against the Giants they were simply outplayed until 5 minutes before half-time. They trailed 6-0 at that point and only some decent defence was keeping them in the game. Thereafter they pretty much took total control, in around 30 minutes of action they piled on 38 points. The size of the victory was huge, especially taking into account when they first scored. The most the Giants had conceded in a whole game in the regular season was 29 and that was at the Redskins way back in week 3. At home they conceded only 7 to the Cowboys in week 14 and in their last 4 games of the season they had conceded a total of just 47, an average of 12 per game.

The win though came at potentially a very heavy cost with WR Nelson almost certainly ruled out of the trip to Dallas with (possibly) a couple of broken ribs. I am assuming he won't be playing Sunday here. Historically the Packers offence is far from as effective without him as they are with him. To hopefully allay those, very legitimate, concerns it is worth noting than Nelson was already off the field before the Packers scored against the Giants and both Cobb and Adams then finished with over 100 yards of receptions.

The Cowboys away though is a different proposition to the Giants at home. They went 13-3 through the season, only losing to the Giants home and away and the Eagles in the final game when many of their regulars were rested for part, or all, of the game. They have also had the possible benefit of the bye week.

The rankings -
Cowboys pass offence 23rd - Packers pass defence 30th
Packers pass offence 7th - Cowboys pass defence 26th
Cowboys rush offence 2nd - Packers rush defence 8th
Packers rush offence 20th - Cowboys rush defence 1st

From the stats it looks like a game of the Cowboys rushing game trying to outscore the Packers passing game. And though the Giants don't have the worst offence, they certainly don't have an Elliott at RB. Added to that, though lowly ranked, their pass offence has clearly generally worked well in tandem with Elliott. He had a big game against the Packers earlier in the season and though the Packers defence has markedly improved since, they are still prone to lapses and there are few RBs this season who are able to exploit such situations as well as Elliott has done. If the Packers rush defence are not at the best then Elliott will probably have a very healthy workload and give the Cowboys control of the game keeping the ball out of the hands of Rodgers for as long as possible. With the Packers pass defence ranked at 30, though they too have improved they are far from the finished article, despite their low ranking, QB Prescott is good enough and has some decent receivers to cause damage. If Elliott controls the ball for much of the game, very likely the Cowboys will win.

That said, the Cowboys pass defensive ranking of 26 must be a huge concern given the recent form of Rodgers and his receivers. If the Packers defence can restrict Elliott's influence, and the Packers do not succumb to their not infrequent troubles when Nelson is absent, then they must have a major chance of the upset. If they allow the Cowboys to control the first 25 minutes though as the Giants did, I would expect the Cowboys to put up quite a few more points in that period than the 6 managed by the Giants.

This game is one with a huge range of possibilities, I can see either team winning big and I can see either team winning with the final play of the game. My heart says Packers and my mind is split. So, you make up your own minds and I will be partisan and go with the Packers to cause the upset.

If you prefer the Cowboys then Elliott is the obvious choice for TD but perhaps worth considering, he is pretty short in the prices, he did not score at Green bay and the Packers have given up more TDs to wide receivers this season than any other NFL team.

As for me and the Packers, Adams is the obvious candidate but Cobb caught 3 TDs last week including a 42 yard "Hail Mary" pass to conclude the first half. He also had a reasonable game when they met earlier in the season. That said, if Nelson is out, the Packers probably really need Adams to be at his best. Despite the fact that he will no doubt get added attention, which may open up spaces for better priced alternatives, I will go with Adams. I have a hunch Rodgers will look for him plenty in the opening exchanges in the hope that he will be able to stamp his mark on the game early and go on to have a big one.

Packers 11-20, Adams

Mitchell seemingly is now unlikely to play for the Patriots tonight, switched to White and Lewis for some value for the TD but they are risky options in truth.

Divisional Championship Games - Sunday

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons (NFC)

Of their 31 meetings the Packers lead the series 17-14. Three of those games have been in the post-season and the Packers are 2-1 to the good. The Falcons have only hosted one of those 3, it was the last time the two met in a play off game, the Packers won it. Including that game, the Falcons are 9-6 at home vs the Packers.

The Falcons are 8-12 in all play off games and 5-3 in the ones they have hosted. The Packers are 34-21 in all play off games since their 1921 inception, they have won the Superbowl 4 times in 5 appearances. Excluding those 5 games, they are 12-15 on the road in post-season games.

They met in a tight one in Atlanta in week 8 of the regular season, the Falcons 33-32 victory coming thanks to a TD with just 31 seconds remaining. It was their first win in their last 5 meetings with the Packers. Sanu was the recipient of the TD pass and he had a big day, 9 receptions for 84 yards, Jones had only 3 catches on the day. On the other side, Adams was the main target, 12 receptions for 74 yards, Nelson had only 4 catches on the day.

Possibly worth noting that QB Rodgers was the main runner for the Packers that day, 6 carries for 60 yards. With no primary RB available, the Packers used different options, the most any individual ran for the Packers was 6 carries. They will have better options on Sunday. Furthermore, the game was played in a bleak spell for the Packers, they lost 5 of 6 games in that mid-season period and were generally struggling with both offence and, particularly, defence.

For those who think sentimentality may play a part in the outcome, this will be the last game to be played at Atlanta's Georgiadome before the Falcons move to their new home next season. It is also, as an irrelevant aside, the only NFL venue I have been to. Coincidentally, I happened to watch the Packers 25-16 win there in October 2011.

The regular season rankings -
Packers pass offence 7th - Falcons pass defence 28th
Falcons pass offence 3rd - Packers pass defence 30th
Packers rush offence 20th - Falcons rush defence 17th
Falcons rush offence 5th - Packers rush defence 8th

The Packers have now won 8 straight, their win over the Cowboys last week was their 5th against other teams who have reached the play offs in their last 7 games. If the Packers are to go on and win the Superbowl, they will have done so by beating 7 of the 12 play off teams over their final 9 games. They have scored 30 or more in each of their last 6 games. The Falcons have won 5 straight and scored 28 or more in their last 7.

In their victory over the Cowboys, Green Bay tore into a big early lead but were gradually pegged back in the opening half. They re-established a fairly decent advantage again in the 2nd half only for the Cowboys to again respond. The game was decided by an excellent catch by TE Cook from a Rodgers throw on 3rd and 20. He got out of bounds allowing the Packers to get the deciding FG with the final kick of the game, it was the 3rd FG in the space of 90 seconds as fortunes see-sawed. It was a solid performance against a very good team.

The Falcons also trailed early in their game to the Seahawks and it could have been worse, the visitors failing to take advantage of some good positions and throwing away others through penalties. They were soon made to pay, in the 2nd quarter the Falcons won the period 19-3 and never really looked like relinquishing control thereafter. Their offence was particularly impressive, at times it seemed there was nothing the Seahawks could do to stop the Falcons offensive progress.

In some ways this is an even tougher game for the Packers, the multitude of offensive weapons the Falcons possess will severely test them, particularly in their injury restricted pass defence. The Packers though of course have plenty weapons of their own and the Falcons have defensive issues themselves. It is likely to be a real shoot-out. That said, the Packers line-up might have no Nelson (slim chance of playing) and fellow top receiver Adams (50/50 currently from what I can tell). Their situations should be monitored. With that scenario and having listened to the Falcons game last week I have to confess that, if they repeat, the Falcons may be difficult to outscore. If I was neutral, with their home advantage, I would probably (and it is only probably) go for them 1-10 (possibly more if the Packers are without Nelson and Adams) and, given the Packers proficiency to allow wide receivers TDs, I would probably go with Jones for the TD, though there are of course a multitude of options.

But, ignore me as you wish of course, I am going the partisan route again and despite the comment above, I think the Packers have a decent chance, that will be boosted if Nelson and/or Adams are able to play. Rodgers has been almost unstoppable of late and if his form continues then the Packers can beat anyone, Cobb and others may not be the two "stars" currently but the back-up receivers aren't incompetent. Looking for a little value, and as the Falcons are not the strongest against TEs, I'll chance the seemingly increasingly influential Cook for the TD.

Packers 1-10. Cook.


Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots (AFC)

The Steelers are 36-23 in play off games and excluding their 6 Superbowl wins in 8 appearances, they are 9-11 on the road in the play offs. The Patriots have won 30 of 49 play off appearances, they are 19-4 at home.

In 29 meetings the Steelers lead 15-14 of which there have been 4 post-season games, the Patriots are 3-1 in those games including victory in the only one played in New England. The sides are 4-4 in regular season games where the Patriots have been the hosts. Since 1998, in all games between them, the Patriots are 10-3, they have won the last 3 including the last 2 at home.

They met in week 7 in Pittsburgh with the Patriots running out 27-16 winners but it came during a 4 game losing streak for the Steelers and QB Roethlisberger was unable to play. Following those 4 losses, the Steelers have won all 9 subsequent games including their last 5 on the road. Blount carried 24 times for 127 yards and 2 TDs while Edelman caught 9 receptions. Going the other way, Bell carried 21 times for 81 yards and had 10 receptions for a further 106 yards, Brown took 7 catches for 68 yards.

The Steelers achieved their win at the Chiefs last week without scoring a TD, relying on 6 FGs to take them to an 18-16 win, the Chiefs had tied the game with a 2 point conversion late in the 4th quarter only to agonisingly have it chalked off by a penalty and they then failed to convert on the repeat attempt. Bell ran for 170 yards on 30 carries which gave the Steelers control for much of the game but they were unable to put the game away and it was almost costly. The defence was strong though, the Chiefs scored on their first drive and their last drive, in between they had plenty 3 and outs.

The Patriots were not as convincing winners in their game with the Texans as the 34-16 win might suggest. Their early offensive play was a long way short of their efficient best and only a combination of their defence and the weak Chiefs offence ensured it was not overly costly. Against more potent offences it might have been a different story. Consequently, there was only 4 points in it at the half. They won the 2nd half 17-3 but over the whole game it could be argued that it was more the Texans poor play on the day that gave the Patriots the win. They dropped two relatively easy passes which would almost certainly have led to TDs, their QB threw 3 2nd half interceptions and they converted only 3 of 16 3rd down plays. All these factors allowed the Patriots to get the control their own offensive play was struggling to achieve. The TD star of the show (fortunately for me!) was Lewis who scored passing, rushing and kick-off return TDs. He carried 11 times compared to only 8 by Blount.

The regular season rankings -
Patriots pass offence 4th - Steelers pass defence 16th
Steelers pass offence 5th - Patriots pass defence 12th
Patriots rush offence 7th - Steelers rush defence 13th
Steelers rush offence 14th - Patriots rush defence 3rd

I have been of the opinion all season that the Steelers are lacking something, exactly what I am not sure (not expert enough on the NFL!). In fairness, they have belied my scepticism (until I went with them at the Chiefs) with their 9 game winning streak but there is still something nagging me saying they are vulnerable. With a relatively sound defence and some obviously very dangerous men on their offence they definitely can't be discounted, particularly if the Patriots are as disjointed as they were for much of their game against the Texans.

The Steelers have plenty of momentum coming into the game and for all my doubts, I think they will give the Patriots a game here. That Patriots performance against the Texans bothers me. If I had not listened to that somewhat patchy performance, although they ultimately ended up comfortable winners, I would have had little hesitation in confidently nominating them to win this one. But, if they repeat that performance of last week, imo the Steelers are likely to upset, they have offensive weapons, including at QB, that the Texans simply don't possess.

The Patriots are not easy to oppose though. This is the 6th consecutive season that they will contest the AFC Championship game and, despite some key injuries (and suspensions) which have affected much of their season, they finished with the best overall record in the NFL. They have less star names in many ways than other teams but nevertheless steadily get the job done and have an all-round strong unit. (As an aside they are 15-0 when Dion Lewis has played). Should I not forgive and overlook a bit of a blip last week?

I am going to hesitantly do so but a Steelers upset win would come as no massive surprise. I think it could be a game where defences have the greatest influence and thus scoring might be on the low side. I will go with the Patriots 1-10. Both teams have been fairly strong against receivers this season but Pittsburgh have shown themselves to be somewhat susceptible to TDs from RBs. That makes Blount and Lewis the key players in my mind for the opening TD. The additional problem is though, I am not sure now which one is favoured currently. Lewis has been having an increasing influence in recent games while the record breaking Blount has been used less frequently and has also seemingly been used less in threatening situations. It might all be tactical though, I have no idea. At 7s and 12s respectively it is possible to dutch them, I have done so with a marginal preference for one of the two, I was close to a coin toss over it but as I'm not one to sit on a fence too often...

Patriots 1-10. Lewis.

Another Packers receiver, Geronimo Allison, is now also something of a doubt for Sunday's clash. The likes of Jeff Janis at 50s with Hills and perhaps Trevor Davis at 80s with B365 become possible worthwhile nibbles.

They might also use Montgomery more in a receiving role or they could go to the run more often than usual opening up Ripkowski and Michael at 20s plus as possibles too.

I am sticking with Cook, he was my original choice anyway, with a few other nibbles, he might be a frequent target given the questionable fitness of others.

The Packers are looking like a pretty banged up team just now so realistically, especially, for those who are neutral etc, Jones and the Falcons are perhaps looking an increasingly better bet.

Falcons or Patriots?

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We not getting one more write up? I enjoy the read

I agree they were brilliant, thanks again Engels

Ps it's such a shame South Africa has to " steal the pictures " online

this is what i am looking forward to at half time