Week 3...
Ravens @ Jaguars... Jaguars are the official home team but this game will be played at Wembley. The Jaguars crushed the Texans in week 1 and then suffered a similar hit themselves to the Titans last week. Their offensive game revolves around the run, but when that is shut down QB Bortles struggles, not helped by the fact their top receiver is sidelined. They only trailed by 3 at the half but a change of RB in the Texans line-up saw them concede points on 5 consecutive drives and the game was done. The Jaguars strengths/weaknesses could play right into the hands of the Ravens here. The Jaguars appear defensively stronger against the pass than run while the Ravens have been solid defensively against the run and offensively they appear much more focused on that side of the game this year. They have two RBs who have shown good form thus far and are joint 3rd in the team rushing stats currently. There is some doubt over the health of one of those RBs, West, for this game and as he also seems a more consistent target with the pass, it may be sensible to side with Allen for the first TD scorer in this one. Ravens 11-20 in a none too high scoring game. Maybe wise to monitor West's status and do a saver if he plays. i f he doesn't, then Collins will probably be the back-up RB so his price will be worth a look.
Browns @ Colts... the Colts changed their QB and restored some pride following their meltdown at the Rams in week 1. They still lost but it took OT. Two major factors contributed to the defeat were 30 seconds of decent Cardinals offence - a 22 yard pass connection on 3rd and 20 immediately followed by a TD pass of 45 yards with about 8 minutes left - and then an intercepted pass giving up OT possession and a FG defeat. It certainly appears a much improved effort but not only is the QB new, the Colts running game has been pretty ineffective thus far. The Browns also suffered a 2nd defeat. They have gone down to the Steelers and Ravens but even so, there must be some concern about their lack of yardage rushing and at QB, the rookie Kizer had a poor game. The Browns only points came through their back up QB in the 2nd quarter while Kizer was off with a migraine. The strength of the oppositions faced makes me think the Browns may still have a bit more to come and conceding a combined total of 45 points to the Steelers and Ravens is no disgrace, possibly implying their defence may be in fairly good order. The Colts have manged only one TD in their two games. Little doubt the Colts improved last week with Brissett at QB and their overall performance was good by all reports. A game where I am continually changing my mind, in a no-confidence shout I will stick with the Browns and hope that new receiver Higgins continues his hot streak of 7 catches from last week, Browns 1-10, Higgins.
Giants @ Eagles... The Giants have played two probable play-off candidates in the Cowboys and the Lions but they have managed only one TD in 2 fairly comprehensive defeats. Their offence, even with Beckham back against the Lions has been relatively impotent, particularly in the run where they are bottom of the 32 NFL teams. The Eagles have had two games on the road, a good win at the Redskins was followed by "a played well in defeat loss" at the Chiefs. Early days but they are ranked 4th in passing offence, though the Giants still boast the team ranked 2nd= against the pass. The Eagles have shown a reluctance to run early season and may have issues falling back on that if the Giants defence limits their passing game. Blount went from 14 carries in week 1 to 0 in week 2, though Sproles did go 2-10 the other way. The Giants could return to form any given week but, with the Eagles showing some decent form, I will have to go with them here. The first TD nomination, given the Giants pass defensive strength and the Eagles favouring that offence, is complicated. Although strong against TEs last year, the Giants gave up 7 catches and a TD to the Cowboys TE Witten and 5 catches and a TD to Lions TE Ebron. The Eagles TE Eitz had 8 catches for 93 yards against the Redskins and 5 against the Chiefs for 97 yards. He is yet to get into the end zone but if the Giants are vulnerable to that position and he remains a strong target for QB Wentz, then he could be a decent option. Eagles 11-20. Eitz.
Dolphins @ Jets... the Dolphins started their season with what could prove a decent win at the LA Chargers while a little way up the coast the Jets were suffering their 2nd comprehensive defeat of the season to the Oakland Raiders, The Jets look to have another long season ahead, they are already ranked lowest against the run and 19th against the pass. New Miami QB found Landry 13 times but the Dolphins primary offensive focus was as usual through RB Ajayi who carried 28 times for 122 yards. Surprises are always possible but there seems little point waffling in this one. The Dolphins look strong favourites, I'll go 11-20 and Ajayi is the obvious candidate for the first TD.
Broncos @ Bills... the Broncos have made a decent start to the 2017 campaign with home victories over the Chargers and then pummeling the much-vaunted Cowboys 42-17 last week. The Bills beat the Jets before a 9-3 defeat in a tight one at the Panthers. Both teams defences are ranked higher than the opposition's passing offence so this game might be decided by the running games. The Bills are often a strong running team led by McCoy, but their success against the Jets was not repeated at the Panthers who restricted McCoy to just 9 yards on 12 carries, indeed QB Taylor was the main threat with 55 yards on 8 carries. The Broncos run defence is rated 3rd after the 2 games. That said, the Bills defence ie ranked 5th themselves but they do face the current leaders of the rush rankings in the Broncos, led by CJ Anderson who has run for 199 yards over the 2 games and been ably supported by Charles. I think the Bills will put up a fair fight but it is hard to go against the Broncos following their impressive victory over the Cowboys. Broncos 1-10, Anderson for the TD opener.
Saints @ Panthers... the Panthers are 2 of 2 primarily on the back of strong defence, they have conceded just a field goal in both contests to date. The Saints have suffered two sound defeats at the Vikings and home to the Patriots and 65 points in the process. They are ranked lowest against the pass and 25th against the run. Not unusually, they are ranked 2nd in passing offence but in the Panthers they will face the 2nd ranked defence against the pass, though it should be said they have only faced the 49ers and Bills, both of whom are not known for a passing game. More impressive is perhaps their 6th rated run defence which has faced Hyde and McCoy and remained intact. The Saints are only ranked 26th in rushing offence. Those stats perhaps paint a bright picture for the Panthers chances here, until their own offence is examined, they are only ranked 22nd (pass) and 16th (rush) themselves. That said, they do seem to be the better overall team but if the Saints passing game can expose flaws in their defence not found by the running 49ers and Bills, then the bubble might burst quickly. I will go with the Panthers though, they have had plenty of the ball but not executed at the business end. Against this already suspect looking Saints defence, they may well be able to do so. I'll take the Panthers 1-10. WR Benjamin might receive close attention so it could be worth chancing his fellow WR Funchess for the opening TD. I will also look at the price for TE Dickson.
Steelers @ Bears... the Steelers are 2-0 thanks to a 3 point win at the Browns and a 26-9 home win over a back-up QB run Vikings. As such the jury must still be out on just how good they might be this year. The Bears did well at home to keep it close with the Falcons but were destroyed by the Buccs last week, trailing 26-0 at the half before ultimately going down 29-7. Giving up three turnovers in that opening 30 minutes has led to QB Glennon facing heavy criticism. The question is though, which game was the "blip", the goodish or the ugly? Only the future can answer that, but having gone 3-13 last year then the ugly would seem to be a more consistent recent theme. The Steelers have been a team I consistently find difficult to assess. For me, there is nothing outstanding in their wins so far but they have nevertheless professionally got the job done. It might be the same here. Unlike many, I don't think the Bears will be as bad as last week, back on home turf they may even keep it relatively close but I have to think the Steelers will once more get the job done. Steelers 1-10 with Brown for the TD opener, the Bears are possibly stronger against the run defensively .
Falcons @ Lions... interesting battle which might be an indicator of things to come for both teams, each of whom are 2-0. Beaten finalists in last year's Superbowl the Falcons opened up with a "bit too close for comfort" win at the Bears and then breezed past the injury-hit Packers last week. The Lions came back in the 4th quarter to beat the Cardinals and then controlled much of the game in winning by 14 at the Giants, how much that is down to current Giants failing is unknown but they suffered the same troubles against the Cowboys, The Falcons are probably the better side still and have the greater weapons, but the Lions have a look of a team on the up and, with home advantage, I think they might just shade this one. Not one to be confident about, plenty of ifs and too early in the season for the stats to mean too much, I will go with the Lions to win, 1-10 but I'll go with a Falcon for first TD, the Lions often come from behind. Jones for the first TD but many possibilities.
Buccaneers @ Vikings... the very late withdrawal of Vikings QB Bradford basically gave last week's game to the Steelers and his participation this week is again in doubt, though apparently he is likely to play. The Buccs were also helped by a QB but this one played, Glennon giving up 3 of the Bears 4 first half turnovers which helped the Buccs to a 26-0 half-time lead they never looked like relinquishing. Difficult to assess the Buccs given how poorly the Bears were, Evans caught 7 times for 93 yards while Rodgers and Barber combined for over 100 yards rushing on 29 carries. Their defence was not in a generous mood. Bears RBs Howard and Cohen ran for a mere 20 yards in 16 runs and the passing yards the Bears gained was really done when the game was already over. Thei Vikings pass defence is possibly a weakness but their lowly current rating could well be a result of playing against 2 big throwers from the Saints and Steelers, they were 3rd ranked overall in defence last year. Nevertheless, I still have a hunch the Buccs can win. They have been a progressive team in recent seasons and will have gained plenty confidence from last week. I will take a chance that Evans can continue to exploit "gaps" in the Vikings pass defence for the first TD. Buccs 1-10, Evans.
Texans @ Patriots... the Texans recovered from a poor home showing in week 1 to win at the Bengals last week, though I definitely have the Bengals as an early season red flag team at the moment so the strength of that win, on the back of solid defence, is somewhat dubious. The Patriots did likewise, bouncing back from their home defeat to the Chiefs to win relatively comfortably at the Saints. Keeping the waffle short, I still can't see the Texans scoring many points so it comes down to how much their defence restricts the Patriots. I'll go Patriots 11-20. The first TD scorer is naturally more problematic. The Texans defence ranks 2nd against the pass and 12th against the run but with only 2 games played, one against a non-functioning offence and the other against a running team, those stats can't be too heavily relied on. The Patriots have weapons aplenty. Gronkowski is always a major player and White a better priced receiving option, but I'll side with Gillislee in the hope they throw the ball to get close and then toss it to him to run home from short yardage. As with Burkhead last week, I'll look at the prices though and see if there is also any value elsewhere.
Seahawks @ Titans... the Seahawks have scored only 21 points in their two games, a loss at the Packers followed by a 12-6 home win over the 49ers. The Titans lost fairly comprehensively to the throwing Raiders in the opening week but in turn won fairly comprehensively against the running Jaguars last week. The Seahawks are ranked 11th running the ball and a very disappointing 27th passing. Despite only losing 23 points themselves, their defence is ranked only 12th against the pass and 23rd against the run, giving up over 120 yards to Hyde last week. The Titans are ranked 15th= passing, but really rely on their running game. They are ranked 6th and though the Seahawks defence is probably better than the stats currently show, any slips and the Titans will pounce. With the Titans defence ranked 21st against the pass and 17th against the run, the Seahawks will have chances if they can get their offence moving but until that is seen, I can't support them with confidence. I have to be with the Titans here, 1-10. Starting RB Murray was effectively given the opening 6 quarters of the season but had little success. They switched focus in the 2nd half last week to Henry. He carried 14 times for 92 yards and a TD, he could be a good call for the opening TD. Murray may not play through injury but even if he does, Henry might get the more carries now. A word of caution, but at the same time, a lookout for possible value, on later runs, from 3 and 1 yards out, the Titans gave the TD runs to Fowler and Walker respectively rather than Henry. Walker is usually a receiver so likely no great value but I'll look at Fowler's price.
Bengals @ Packers... the Bengals have started the season with two poor home defeats, a 20 point blowout by the Ravens and then a 13-12 loss to the offensively struggling Texans. They rank 20th for both pass and run offensively. They are 30th against the run but actually rate top for passing defence, though the lack of passing power in their opponents to date no doubt plays a part in that, Packers QB Rodgers will be working from a different page. The Packers suffered a number of injuries, plus a couple of uncharacteristic turnovers, and they contributed to a convincing defeat by the Falcons. The Packers added 2 late TDs to give the score more respectability but by then the Falcons were not on full throttle. The Packers were relatively comfortable victors over the Seahawks in week 1 though and the word is that it is possible both Nelson and Cobb will play. Unless the Bengals choose this week to start firing offensively, and it looks like imfluential TE Eifert is out, they are likely to be on the end of a hefty loss, the Packers rank 4th in offensive passing and though they are 25th for rushing, Montgomery has run in a TD in both games. Hard to see anything but a Packers win, they will want to come back strong from last week's loss and with the Bengals offence inept thus far, I'll go Packers 21-30. A number of options as usual for the TD opener, but I'll chance Montgomery again given the poor start in that area by the Bengals and his own fair form. As a former TE, he also always has a chance of a pass reception.
Cheifs @ Chargers... The Chiefs have opened the season well. following up their win at the Patriots with a home success over the Eagles. The Chargers mounted a 4th quarter reply to the Broncos but fell just short and then lost by 2 to the Dolphins last week. They have a habit stretching back to last season of losing close games and there have been plenty of them. They may have to be at the top of their game though to stay in this one, offensively the Chiefs are ranked 5th passing and 2nd rushing., Defensively the Chargers probably rank high 20s for both pass and rush. Their hopes could rest with their passing game, they rank 30th offensively running the ball but they are 9th in passing and the Chiefs are only 28th defensively. That said, I think the Chiefs all round game will be too strong and I can see them winning this one 11-20. Hunt seems to be the focus of the Chiefs attack currently so I will stick with him for the first TD.
Raiders @ Redskins... the Redskins went down relatively tamely in week 1 to the Eagles before winning at the Rams last week, The jury is still out on them this year and, for this week, there are also some possible injury concerns. They host the Raiders who are scoring points again with Carr at QB. They followed up a decent 10 point win at the Titans on the opening day with a sound 45-20 beating of the Jets. They are mostly about offence, 5th rushing (Redskins 9th defensively) and 13th passing (Redskins 28th defensively). The other way, the Redskins are joint 3rd rushing (Raiders 19th) and 21st+ running (Raiders 14th=). The Raiders seem to have the better all round attack with more threatening options and I think the Redskins defence will struggle, especially in the passing game. I like the Raiders here, 11-20. Choosing someone for the TD opener is always tough in these multi-weapon teams, Crabtree caught 3 TDs last week with 2 RBs getting one apiece, in week 1 it was 2 different receivers. I see the main difference between the teams to be through the air though, so going with a receiver is the most logical option, I'll go with Cooper despite Crabtree's big game last week.
Cowboys @ Cardinals... Things were looking rosy for the Cowboys after their comfortable victory over the Giants in week 1 but in a not untypical NFL turnaround they got thumped 42-17 at the Broncos last week. The Cardinals are another team I have found difficult to assess over the last year or so. They scraped to an OT victory at the Luck-less Colts last week after being beaten by the Lions in week 1. With their Johnson-less run game down at 28th but their passing game at 6th it would appear that must be their favoured route if they are to get anything from this game., Dallas are ranked 14th defensively. The Cardinals problem is the Cowboys are ranked 10th themselves and the Cardinals defence only 24th, They have the added issue of RB Elliott who must be a threat despite having his worst career game at the Broncos, the Cardinals are ranked 10th defensively. The bottom line for me, if the proper Cowboys team turns up they win. I have a red flag hovering over the Cardinals and though they have offensive weapons and a more often than not decent defence, they just don't convince me that they are about to return to being a winning side consistently. Cowboys to bounce back, 11-20 Assuming he has a more influential week, Elliott is always a threat but, partly with price in mind, I'm going for a receiver for the first TD, TE Witten has been the primary target this season but the Cardinals were strong defending against TEs last year so I'll take my chances with Williams who may receive less attention than Bryant from the Cardinals defence.
I backed the Patriots at something like 13/2 back in week 3 or 4 I think (not for much) and I'll stick with them. The Falcons probably have the more star names but their defence, though improved, still looks vulnerable to me, while the Patriots have been pretty solid defensively throughout, they could hold the Falcons on-fire offence sufficiently to allow them the win. A game that has plenty of questions and I am hoping it will be a good one. I've gone with the Patriots TE Bennett for the opening TD, may do a saver on Blount, but there are obviously a large number of options. Enjoy the game. 
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