American Football League 2018/2019

Karma wrote: Engels, I honestly dont understand a thing about the AFL, but I really enjoy reading your analysis. And I will follow on a couple "biggy tips"

Thanks bud. The "beauty" about betting on the NFL is you don't need to understand it to have a potentially profitable play. I don't know that much about it either, I just "study" the results, compare offences/defences and player stats etc. it is all about stats and your reading of them.

Didn't quite manage to treble my money but at least doubled up again. Smith's TD at 40s the biggest factor in the success.

Three games on Thanksgivng Day (Thursday).

Vikings @ Lions... the Vikings decided to start putting some points on the board again last weekend, helped by interception and kick off returns for TDs of over 100 yards apiece. The win though may also restore some much needed confidence having lost their previous 4 with an average 14pts scored per game. Possibly worth noting that they weren't too far off a similar total again without those two big returns. Three of those 4 losses were on the road and the other was a home defeat to the Lions. The two are now tied atop their division, though it is not the strongest of divisions this year imo. The Lions have got there with a run of 5 victories in 6, winning none of those games by more than a TD. They are not the most prolific scorers but often get around 20 plus points. Tough to call if the Vikings are on the bounce back but I am not convinced. With home advantage I will go with the Lions, 1-10. Back from injury Riddick wasn't used much running the ball on Sunday but with increased fitness he may be utilised more in this one and, if so, also with 8 catches last week, he could see plenty of the ball. At 12s he makes appeal as the possible first TD scorer.

Redskins @ Cowboys... the Redskins moved to 6-1-1 in their last 8 with a convincing victory over the Packers but now visit a team on a 9 game winning streak. Both teams have powerful offences capable of scoring plenty points. The Redskins though are perhaps a little vulnerable against the run and Elliott, currently leafing the NFL in rushing yardage, could make the difference. I go with the Cowboys 1-10. Elliott is only 5s for the first TD and I really think that is too low a price for these types of bets. Consequently, I am unlikely to back him as a single but will include him in atcs. He carried 25 times against the strong Ravens defence last week and made 4 catches, only 2 less than the most taken by any individual Dallas receiver. He is the obvious choice. As a possible "value" alternative though, there is no reason not to consider Redskins players, they have weapons and if getting the ball first etc could easily go ahead. Their RB Keeley is 8s but receiver prices start from 12s. I tend to go with Crowder.

Steelers @ Colts... there is major doubt as to whether Colts QB Luck will play, looks very unlikely currently, and if he is out then the Colts are probably in big trouble. The likely back up QB has seen almost no action since 2013. Replacement QBs, especially those who have seen little action, rarely come up trumps. The Colts also have a couple of defensive injury concerns. They do play a somewhat unconvincing Steelers team whose victory over the winless Browns brought an end to a 4 game losing streak, but it took a fumble recovery in the end zone for a TD to finally make the game safe with less than 4 minutes remaining. I am far from convinced the Steelers have resolved their troubles but, with Luck out, they would be hard to oppose here. The Colts also have major injury concerns over two starting cornerbacks and defensively that too is a massive concern. The Steelers have scored only 3. 14. 15 and 24 (Browns) points in their last 4 games on the road but have potent weapons in Brown and Bell who could take advantage in a big way of those defensive issues. Much depends on the injuries but, assuming Luck and the two cornerbacks don't play, I'll check the prices of, and probably chance, the Steelers winning by 20 plus with Brown probably for the TD but prices are not yet up. Despite that, for short odds players, it might be worthwhile looking at total points under 47.5. With a replacement QB and a relatively solid Steelers rush defence up against an experienced but hardly prolific Colts running game it is hard for me to see how the home team are going to score points.

Prices for the Steelers-Colts game are now up, Brown is best priced 13/2 at PP, most companies have Bell at 9/2, he is 6s though at Hills.

With the reserve QB in I have nibbled PPs 22/1 about the Steelers defence/special teams scoring the first TD

The 40s at WHs about Steelers RB Toussaint has also been nibbled, a little more on last TD scorer. he could well be the back up to Bell so may get a few plays, especially late on if the Steelers are well ahead and resting Bell.

Main value bet though is the 33s about Ladarius Green, a TE with the Steelers. he has been eased back into the fold following a lengthy lay off but they are talking him up this week as likely to play a much bigger part. To be the first/last TD scorer he is 33s with WH, a maximum 14s everywhere else. The 5s Hills are offering for him to be an anytime TD scorer is also worth considering.

If you have a Betway account then winning margins are possibly worth a go while they last, everywhere else have marked up very short prices imo and you would have to be a real idiot to chance anything at the odds, simply not worth the gamble.

Doubled my money again Thursday with an Elliott / Bell first TD double.

On face value there are some seemingly straight forward results, though perhaps tread a little carefully, most weeks throw up at least one or two surprises to spoil atcs etc.

Jaguars @ Bills... the Jaguars are on a 5 game losing streak, 3 on the road, while the Bills ended their own 3 game losing run (against some decent opposition) with a win last week. The Bills have had injury issues with receivers all season but they top the NFL rankings for rushing offence. With the Jaguars stronger defensively against the pass, if McCoy overcomes his thumb injury and plays, it could be the major difference between the two teams. Special teams / turnovers may also play a role with the Jaguars having a pretty poor record recently. The Jaguars have amassed just 86 points in 5 games on the road, an average of just over 17 per game. In 4 home games the Bills have amassed 134 points, 33.5 per game. Assuming McCoy plays, I'm going with a Bills win 11-20 and McCoy is the obvious TD pick. Depending on prices QB Taylor and Bills defence/special teams might see a few rand. McCoy's usual back-up, Gillislee, is out so Jonny Williams and Reggie Bush, 28s and 33s respectively, are likely to see action and are possibly worth nibbling at WH for first / last TD scorer (6s and 7s respectively for anytime scorers), particularly if there is any soreness with McCoy's thumb.

Rams @ Saints... interesting contest, the NFLs top ranking offensive team, primarily through the pass, against the 6th rated defence. In the Rams last 4 games there have only been a total of 89pts, an average of approximately 12 per side per game. Unfortunately for the Rams they have lost 3 of those 4 and have one win in their last 6. The Saints have lost their last two (Broncos and Panthers) but they are still, for me, a team going in the right direction. The Rams defence will probably restrict the Saints offence somewhat but I doubt it will be enough to allow new Rams QB Goff a first win, he made little difference to the offence last week as they scored just 10 points in his first game. I'm going with the Saints 11-20 and Snead my TD opener choice from a multitude of possibles. RB Ingram has been in concussion protocol and although he is expected to play, Hightower has had plenty opportunities of late and that would only increase if there are concerns over Ingram, have nibbled 14s at WH. Kuhn is always worth considering at a price. Total points under 45 possibly worth considering.

49ers @ Dolphins... The 49ers losing run is now at 9 while the Dolphins winning streak has moved to 5. Expecting Dolphins RB Ajayi to have another big day, the 49ers are the bottom ranked NFL defence against the run. He is the obvious choice for the first TD but I might look elsewhere for some value, Parker came up with some big plays late in the game to beat the Rams last week so he may be a popular target with the QB at the start of this one, the 14s at WH is worth the risk imo and Landry at 12s is also perhaps worth considering. Dolphins 11-20. The 49er games have amassed less than 44.5 only three times this season and two of those saw 41 and 43 points. The Dolphins games have also only finished below that mark 3 times with two of those games involving decent defensive line-ups in the shape of the Seahawks and Rams. They are 4-1 at home and in 4/5 the total points have been over 44.5... I think going over a total points scored of 44.5 might reap reward.

Cardinals @ Falcons... The Cardinals were a disappointment last week and their three wins in their last 8 have come against the Jets and the 1-9 49ers twice. They are capable, probably of beating anyone on their day, and it could be argued that they have met some of the better defensive teams in their schedule, but they just don't seem to be bringing their A-game to the table often enough. That said, they come up against a Falcons team that have again faltered after a solid start, they have lost 3 of the last 5 and they will have to hope the bye week has helped recharge them. The Cardinals remain relatively strong defensively in the rankings but, although a win for them would not surprise me, I just don't feel they are a team to be "trusted" currently. I will favour the Falcons, somewhat reluctantly, but helped by the fact that the Cardinals have not won in 7 visits to the Falcons. I'll go 1-10 Falcons and chance the returning RB Coleman for the opening TD, looks fair value at 14s with WH but plenty possibles.

Bengals @ Ravens... although the Bengals have won the last 5 meetings between the two, I think they might struggle to make it 6. As with the Cardinals above, they have been somewhat disappointing this year, also only winning three including victories over the Jets and Browns, and also perhaps having had a schedule featuring opponents with decent defences. Again, on their day they could probably beat most but they just haven't been doing it. Added to that, this week they face one of the strongest defences of all and must do so without the services of star receiver AJ Green and, oft-utilised in both run and pass, No 2 RB Bernard. With the Ravens topping the rush defence rankings and a depleted receiver armoury the Bengals may struggle for points. The Ravens breathed new life into their campaign with two wins following their bye week but went down to the Cowboys last week. I doubt they are going to set the league alight over the closing weeks but they have the more weapons here and, although they don't usually win by big margins, if they can shut down the Bengals they might prevail by 11-20. Defensively the Bengals are stronger against the pass so it might be worth going with Ravens RB West for the opening TD. Given the Bengals problems and the Ravens defensive strength and non-prolific offence, under 40.5 total points could be a good call.

Titans @ Bears... the Bears look likely to be without QB Cutler and if so are unlikely to improve their already gloomy 2-8 record. The Titans have been at least competitive in most of their games en route to a 5-6 season thus far and with much of the Bears potency, which hasn't been strong anyway, now seemingly out, the Titans 3rd ranked running game should prove too strong for the Bears. Barkley is the likely starting QB for the Bears and in 5 back up appearances to date he has thrown 0 TDs and 6 interceptions, with those stats the Titans special teams / defence should be considered for the first TD. The Bears have other major injury problems on both offence and defence and, other than the fact that the Titans are not the strongest defensively, it is hard to see them racking up plenty points. The Titans have decent receiving options but I'll stick with RB Murray for the first TD score in a 11-20 Titans win. The Titans to win with a handicap of -4.5 looks probable.

Giants @ Browns... the Browns continue winless and have lost 6 of their last eight by more than this weeks handicap of +7. They meet the Giants who are on a 5 game winning streak but have won none of those 5 by more than a TD score and 4 of them came on home turf. I am not sure the Giants are as good as the 7-3 record they boast and it wouldn't surprise me if this one was fairly tight. I'll go with a Giants win 1-10. Beckham on stats looks the sensible choice for TD but for value I'll go with No 2 WR Shepard who is on a 3 game TD scoring run and the 12s offered by WH is double the odds of Beckham.

Chargers @ Texans... the Chargers are 4-6 overall and 1-4 on the road but are possibly a little unlucky to have that record, every game, bar one victory, has been won by no more than 8 points. The Texans are 6-4 by virtue of a 5-0 home record but have won those games by no more than 10 points on each occasion. For me there is not much currently between the two teams but the win/lose stats seem to imply that the Chargers struggle to finish the job on the road whereas the Texans find a way to get the job done when on home turf. The Chargers have had a tough schedule and a win here certainly wouldn't surprise me but the Texans have picked up recently and are arguably a little unlucky not to be on a 3 game winning streak. I'm going with a 1-10 Texans win. It is a game where the strengths of one offence meet the strengths of the other's defence and the weak link of their offences meet the weak links in the other's defence. Makes choosing one for the TD even more of a "lottery" than usual and the Texans do not possess a prolific scorer, chancing TE Fiedorowicz.

Seahawks @ Buccaneers... the Seahawks are on a 3 game winning run and have by all accounts been looking like a very useful outfit again. The Buccs are on a two game winning streak following their win at the Chiefs but return to home ground where their record is 1-4 this year and not the best over the previous two seasons either. They also seem likely to be missing two of their three cornerback starters. They are a capable team on their day but this one looks likely to be tough. Those cornerback issues could prove costly against in form Seahawks QB Wilson. The Seahawks have lost promising RB Prosise for the season but do have top RB Rawls back, he carried 14 times last week as well as taking three receptions, He is a possible for first TD but I'll chance Graham in an 11-20 Seattle win.

Panthers @ Raiders... the Panthers remain unconvincing but have now won 3 of their last 4. The Raiders are 8-2 and on a 4 game winning streak but to give the Panthers hope, both Raiders defeats have been on home turf and they were perhaps fortunate to beat the Texans at "home" (played in Mexico) lto. The Panthers though have potential injury problems both in defence and on the offensive line and against a potent Raiders offence that could spell trouble. The Panthers are likely to score points themselves and the need for them to win will probably drive them on but they might just concede too many to the NFLs 5th ranked offence. Without the injury issues I might have been tempted to go with the Panthers to cause a surprise but given the respective personnel likely to start, I will go with the Raiders 1-10 and chance Crabtree to grab the opening TD.

Patriots @ Jets... the 8-2 Patriots visit the 3-7 Jets and although the Jets have regular QB Fitzpatrick back at the helm and the Patriots still have a number of injury uncertainties, it is hard to see anything but a Patriots win. They are 5-0 on the road and have won the last 4 of those by 20, 11, 16 and 13. The Jets have won only one of their 4 home games. Patriots win 11-20 and having been targeted frequently last week it may pay to stick with Edelman for the first TD. The Pats are handicapped to win -7 and it is worth considering.

Chiefs @ Broncos... just for info, they have changed start times with the Pats-Jets and this is now the late game on Sunday. Tough call, both are 7-3 and both are overall probably decent teams that just seem to be lacking one or two ingredients to make them entirely convincing. Not even going to discuss it but my hunch is to go with the Broncos 1-10 with Booker my TD choice.

Packers @ Eagles... the Packers have now lost 4 straight (conceding over 30 points each time) and have also lost their last 4 on the road. The Eagles season may have slumped somewhat but they remain unbeaten in 4 at home. Again those stats tell enough to prevent more waffle, Eagles 11-20, Sproles. The Eagles at just -4 on the handicap looks a decent play to me.

Won't have so much time as usual towards the weekend so have done an early write-up. It is before a lot of injury status reports have been done which could obviously have an impact. TD prices are not usually up before late Friday either. If I notice anything on either front and have the time etc, I'll try to post later in the week.

Just about doubled my money on Sunday for the 4th consecutive game day, including Thanksgiving day. Under no illusions though that I am a star at this, I was actually somewhat fortunate this week. Thought McCoy at 9s was a good price for TD options with PP so got involved (did him to be all of first, last, first second half, first team, to score 2+ and 3+ - he got the team first, the first in the 2nd half and ran in twice so trebled up on the one player, blank elsewhere!). I also did him in a double with Ajayi of the Dolphins to be first team scorer. Not only did Parker get a TD for the Dolphins which was overturned on review and then Ajayi scored, I actually did the bet twice by mistake, definitely not complaining!

Not an easy week and not a single game where I feel my TD play has a good chance, they are really little more than (very limited) "educated" guesses in truth, but the majority are usually like that anyway. I will probably be reducing stakes as a consequence and just hope they come in and fill up my atcs for a worthwhile return! Not really had time to look at handicaps, points totals etc.

Cowboys @ Vikings (Thursday)... the Cowboys winning streak has now hit 10 and they have won all 5 on the road. The Vikings have lost 5 of their last 6 but did win their last home game, albeit against a struggling Cardinals team, and have won 4/5 at home. They have shown a few signs of improving again over the last 2/3 weeks and historically they are good vs the Cowboys but their offence is still not really firing, they have scored 16 or less in 4 of the last 6. The Cowboys have not scored fewer than 19 all season and average about 31 over their last 6 outings. In fact they are a model of consistency offensively, apart from totals of 19 and 24, they have scored between 27 and 35 in all other 9 games. Defensively the Vikings remain relatively strong but the stats show them stronger against the pass so with Dallas RB Elliott (6s currently best, WH) continuing to pummel yardage and TDs, he again would seem the obvious candidate for TDs in an 11-20 Cowboys win.

Chiefs @ Falcons... the Chiefs have won 6 of their last 7 including decent come from behind wins at the Panthers and the Broncos in their last two on the road. They are a good example of stats only telling you so much, they are ranked 22nd overall for offence and 27th for defence and yet they are 8-3 for the season. The Falcons have won 3 of their last 4 and are a danger to all when their offence fires. I am tempted to think that they may just rack up too many points for the Chiefs to deal with but, the schedule they have faced is imo not as competitive as the one the Chiefs have had and I think the visitor's defence can at least keep the Falcons offence in relative containment. Tough but I have a feeling for the Chiefs. 1-10 and will go with Hill, scorer of three TDs at the Broncos, to continue his streak.

Lions @ Saints... the Lions have won 6 of their last 7, though only one of those wins came on the road, and have still to finish a game with more than a TD separating the two teams. The Saints got back to winning ways (following close defeats to the Broncos and Panthers) by putting up 49 points against the previously Scrooge-like Rams defence. I think their offence will have too much power for the Lions and though the latter may again keep it close, I favour the Saints, 1-10. Ingram is a threat on both rush and pass and I'll chance him for the TD play.

Rams @ Patriots... the Rams defence deserted them last week as the Saints piled on the points and as usual they had little in response. They have now lost 6 of the last 7 and would probably not choose to be visiting the Patriots following such a battering. The Patriots got off to a poor start at the Jets but eventually came through to record their 6th win in 7. Although they have perhaps not been at their clinical best in recent weeks, it is again hard to see them not winning, 11-20. I'll chance Blount to run in the TD opener.

Broncos @ Jaguars... the Jaguars have now lost 6 on the bounce, the last four by a TD or less. They are not the worst in the NFL imo and are always capable of a shock but rarely seem able to pull it all together over the 60 minutes play-time. The Broncos are finding a challenging schedule exactly that but they should ultimately still be too good for the Jaguars. I'm going 1-10 Broncos and with the stats showing the Jaguars stronger against the pass than the run, I'll go with Booker for the TD.

Texans @ Packers... the Packers ended their 4 game losing streak with, having listened to it, a fairly impressive victory at the, previously undefeated at home, Eagles. The offence, particularly the pass, was impressive at times and the defence was unusually solid. Despite their recent troubles, they have scored 24-32 in each of their last 6 games. The Texans highest score in their last 5 is 24. The visitors defence is ranked 5th overall but if Rodgers n Co can repeat last week's effort they should get their usual points quota and if the defence is solid again, against a Texans side which is 1-4 on the road this season, three times scoring 13 or less, I think the Packers will come through. 1-10 Packers, I'll go with Nelson for the TD but Adams was in particularly good form at the Eagles. With three TDs to his name this season, I'll also check the price about QB Aaron Rodgers.

Eagles @ Bengals... the Eagles have lost their last 5 away games and suffered their first home loss last week when being well beaten by a previously struggling Packers side. The Bengals have won only won of their last 7 (one tied) and continue to fail to live up to expectations. Both teams normally keep games relatively competitive though and it could go either way but, I think there is possibly an air of defeat about the Eagles now and with home advantage the Bengals might sneak this one, 1-10 and with star WR Green probably still sidelined, I'll go with TE Eifert for the TD play.

Dolphins @ Ravens... the Dolphins are on a 6 game winning streak including on the road wins at the Chargers and Rams in their last three. The Ravens have won 3 of their last 4, all 3 wins coming on home soil. The Ravens are not usually big scorers and usually rely on their defence to keep the opposition total low enough for them to pull through. In 5 of 6 home games they have restricted the visitors to 16 points or less. The Dolphins have been scoring points though, 27 or more in 5 of their last 6 so it looks likely it will come down to a Ravens defence against a Dolphins offence. I favour the defence to win in the belief their, ranked 2, rush defence will, at least for the most part, snuff out the Dolphins main threat of late, RB Ajayi. A 1-10 Ravens success and I will go with their own RB, West, for the TD opener, the Dolphins are ranked 30th against the run.

49ers @ Bears... 49ers 10 straight defeats, Bears 2-9. Not exactly a clash of the titans! My tentative choice, Bears. Why? Both wins have been at home and they were not so far off making it 3 last week vs the Titans, dropped catches etc costing them the game. I think they have shown a little more "application" in the last few weeks and they just give me the impression they might (and it only might!) be the stronger of two poor teams, provided they can convert opportunities into points, which is far from a given. Bears 1-10, Howard.

Bills @ Raiders... the Bills are having something of a roller-coaster season... 2 losses, 4 wins, 3 losses and now on a 2 game winning run again. They are top ranked on rush offence, they are bottom ranked on pass offence. The Raiders are 9-2 and have won their last 5, they are seemingly more gung-ho, a bit of a "we don't mind if you score points cos we'll score more" attitude. They have averaged just 3 points per game more than their opponents when using total points for/against over the 11 games which does not seem much for a team that is 9-2. I think the Bills have a chance of an upset but I am still going to have to go with the Raiders, they just have the more potent options. Raiders 1-10, TD Murray.

Giants @ Steelers... Giants 8-3 and on a 6 game winning streak, didn't see that coming personally! Must be said though that their schedule of late has not been the toughest and on paper at least, a visit to the Steelers is potentially a different ball-game. However, though the Steelers have won their last two, they were against the Browns (late fumble recovery securing victory) and a Luck-less Colts, it can be equally argued perhaps that facing the Giants is a different ball-game for them too. The Steelers suffered 4 straight defeats before those two "give-me" wins. During November the Giants beat the Browns away after home wins over the Eagles, Bengals and Bears, not the strongest November schedule ever faced but the Giants should at least have confidence riding with them. The Steelers are fairly heavy favourites but I am torn. Their two wins were against very weak or weakened teams and though they can massacre anyone on their day and could win this convincingly, I just have doubts that they are back to somewhere near their best. I'm going the Giants to shock route, 1-10, Beckham TD.

Redskins @ Cardinals... the Redskins have been playing well despite their loss at the Cowboys last week whereas the Cardinals have won only once in their last 5 and that win was by a mere 3 points over the 1-10 49ers. They are another team who, on their day, can beat anyone but, like a few others this season, they frequently fail to bring their best to the game-table. Their defence is still ranked first overall but when you have a 4-6-1 record not all can be well. I'm going with the Redskins here, I think they are a confident outfit just now and showing the better form though it will probably be close. Redskins 1-10 and I'll go with RB Keeley as the TD option.

Buccaneers @ Chargers... the Buccs are on a 3 game win streak and have recorded notable victories over the Chiefs and Seahawks in their last two. The Chargers have won 4 of their last 6 and their games are nearly always competitive affairs. As such, games can usually go either way and this one for me definitely falls into that bracket. I am going with the Buccs though, they are on a decent run currently and their defence has been solid of late, they have conceded just 32 points in the last three games. The Chargers may be a more explosive outfit than those they have faced recently but if the Buccs defence is on song again the Chargers won't find a big points tally easy to come by and I think the Buccs will score at the other end, the Chargers are not known for a strong defence. Buccs 1-10, Evans for the TD.

Panthers @ Seahawks... the Panthers have no doubt improved in the second half of the season and their last 4 games have all been settled by just three points, two wins, 2 losses. The Seahawks always seem to fall just when they are starting to look like the team they will all have to beat, while the Buccs are a decent enough team it was still something of a surprise to see them not only beat the Seahawks but concede only 5 points in the process. The Seahawks remain 5-0 at home though and although I think the Panthers will be competitive again, I take the Seahawks to edge them, 1-10, Graham my tentative TD choice.

Colts @ Jets... the Colts should have QB Luck back, they had won 3 of the last 4 with him at the helm. The Jets are 3-8 and though they often remain in games, they are ultimately not a winning team, they have won only one at home this season and are on a 3 game losing run. I like the Colts here, I think Luck will throw the ball with plenty success and it will see the Colts amass sufficient points to see them to victory, Colts 1-10. Moncrief has a TD in all 5 games where he has more than one reception and I will go with him as the TD play.

Thank you Mr Elliott, that will pay for Sunday's bets

Main injury news from a betting perspective I suppose is that the main Broncos QB will not play, it will no doubt make a difference but likely there will be more Denver running plays now which is no bad thing as I am with running back Booker for the TD. Depends how you wanna look at it I guess. Personally sticking with my "forecast".

A very good night. Blount, Booker, West and Howard all going in for the first TDs and included in atcs and first team scorer atcs it amounted to a very profitable night. A lot more than doubling my money this time and the 5th straight game day profit.

The TD scorers were all in the early games so I was hopeful of a really big payday but alas it was not to be as my main hopes later all got the ball second and by the time they did, they were a TD down. Frustratingly, I did savers on Johnson (Cardinals) and Brown (Steelers). Good that they came in but if only I had fancied the Cardinals and Giants to win, I would have been sitting on a five figure profit this morning. Brown was particularly frustrating as I was so 50/50 over the Giants/Steelers outcome. I had other atcs too, all nicely placed after the first batch of games, but sadly firing blanks in the later games. Still, have to keep telling myself, that's gambling! I'll have them next week... All said though, very content with the profit made.

One of my better weeks game calling too I think.

Engels really appreciate your posts, love NFL, does me no good staying up all Sunday night though

Socking the SuperSport dont screen in SA

Welcome Bob, I know not many read them etc but if it helps/"entertains" one or two that is enough for me. Besides, as with my racing waffles, doing it helps clear my mind and see what I want to do in terms of bets more clearly.

Shame there are really ony 17 weeks of it (plus the post-season but less betting opportunities then). If it were all year I doubt I would look at another horse race.

To be honest, I am not worried about the TV as I really enjoy listening to it on the radio, the big advantage being you can flip between games as you wish. I follow the scores on the NFL site - www.nfl.com/scores - and then just "tune in" to the game where I have a possibility of a bet coming in, then go to the next game where the situation is the same and continue like that for the six/seven hours.

The NFL stopped their radio coverage annoyingly a couple of years back, no doubt to make more money. They gave the main rites I think to some American company that foreigners can't join!! But, there are still ways... if you go to - www.freefootballradio.com - they have lists for each team/game where radio stations might be broadcasting. It can be a little frustrating finding ones that are "on air" and have the game on but once you have them, just keep the page open and hit "play" or whatever when you want to listen to that particular game. By keeping them open but stopped you can go to whichever game you want to hear at any particular time. Probably sounds a lot more complicated than it actually is :)

Into week 14, the 4th last of the regular season. Following last week, I can't bet with PP for a couple of weeks, typical! As you will (possibly lol) read, I am very 50/50 with some of the games this week, they are complicated by fighting for the play-offs and/or best seeding in them as well as some teams coming off very heavy defeats and how the might react.

Again, having to write before final injury reports are done and TD prices are up...

Raiders @ Chiefs... the 10-2 Raiders have won their last 6, the last 4 of which have been at home, but are also 5-0 on the road. They have scored 27 or more in 10 games. One of their losses, and low scores, though was to the Chiefs, 26-10 back in October. The Chiefs have won 7 of their last 8, the defeat coming in their last home game against an in form Buccaneers team, ending a run of 10 straight regular season home wins. A win here though would give them a significant edge over their NFC East rivals in the battle for play off advantages. The Raiders are primarily about offence, ranked 7th overall but a lowly 29th on defence. The Chiefs, as mentioned in previous weeks, do not feature well when it comes to the statistics but nevertheless have had a 9-3 season thus far. As last week, against the Falcons, they have to keep an explosive offence in sufficient check while taking advantage of defensive weaknesses to win. I think they will do so, though it is clearly a game that could go either way. I take the Chiefs with Ware, who had a big game in their meeting in October, as my TD play.

Steelers @ Bills... another game with potentially major significance regarding the play offs. The Steelers are on a 3 game winning run, against teams of questionable or worse strength. They are a team still quite highly talked about but one that has continually failed to convince me. The Bills suffered their 1st loss in 3 but their 4th loss in 6 when going down at the Raiders on Sunday, They were well in the game though and led going into the final quarter but a poor final quarter saw them go down by 15. The Bills offensive strength, ranked one on the run, is somewhat negated by the Steelers 6th ranked defence. That said, the Steelers offensive forte is through the air and their 8th ranked offence meets the Bills 8th ranked pass defence. My hunch is for the Bills, probably in a tight, relatively low scoring affair. Have to go with McCoy for the TD, hard to nominate the Bills for a win without going for him with the pass offence ranked lowest in the NFL, but QB Taylor is not averse to running himself and might be a saver bet depending on price.

Broncos @ Titans... the 8-4 Broncos remain in the play off picture despite having the Raiders and Chiefs ahead of them in the NFC East. That makes a win ultra-important for them. They are also likely to have QB Siemian back. The Titans need to win themselves, they are in a 6-6 three way tie atop the weak AFC South. They are not the most consistent and indeed in their last 7 they have gone WLWLWLW. They have won their last 3 at home and are ranked at 3 for rush offence. The Broncos defence are much hyped and they are indeed ranked one against the pass but, surprisingly, a very lowly 28th against the run. Given that they often rely on the defence, ranked only 24th for total offence, those stats make concerning reading for the Broncos. The Titans rush defence is ranked 7th and though their pass defence is 26th, the Broncos pass offence is only 24th. This is a game where I am torn between hunch and stats. The stats say if the Titans get the running game going the Broncos will be in trouble. The head says the Broncos have had a much tougher schedule of the two and at 8-4 are probably overall stronger than the stats suggest. They are the better team imo but their QB is not convincing and they obviously have some issues. There is plenty in the Titans recent games not to like, they should have lost to the Bears lto for example and only didn't because of the latter's ineptitude. They have only just now had their bye week though and that may breathe some new life into them. You decide cos I'm torn. For the record, I am surprising myself and going with the Titans, Murray TD.

Saints @ Buccaneers... the Saints lost their 3rd in 4 on Sunday and it was something of a surprise as the Lions did a job on the Saints oft explosive offence. The Saints are fairly inconsistent but they might find rebounding difficult in this one. The Buccs are on a very decent run of 4 straight wins, including two home wins which might signify an end to their dreadful home form. They have also been solid in defence, allowing only 53 points in their last 4, not a good time perhaps for the Saints offence to have faltered. A Saints win is necessary for them to have any play off hopes but the Buccs are now tied atop the division with the Falcons and seemingly on a good roll. I think the Buccs might win this one with a little to spare and Evans might have a very good day against the NFLs 29th ranked pass defence, he will be the TD shout.

Redskins @ Eagles... bias of course due to bets but listening to much of the Redskins last week, they were a little disappointing against a not flying Cardinals. They gave away plenty important downs when on defence and on occasion seemed to lack direction and power offensively, especially near the TD line. Despite those comments, the Redskins are the top rated passing side and offensively overall but they have only one tie in their last 4 on the road. Against most teams that would be a concern but, as I mentioned last week, the Eagles just have an air of defeat about them currently, they were fortunate to lose only 32-14 to the struggling Bengals last week, have lost 3 in a row and have only 2 wins in their last 9, their unbeaten home record went to the Packers two games back Even though they may get Mathews and Matthews back to bolster their offence, the Eagles just seem like a deflated side, I think the Redskins will bounce back to winning ways, they need to in order to keep play off hopes realistic. Crowder will be my TD man.

Cardinals @ Dolphins... the Dolphins 6 game winning run came to an abrupt end on Sunday when they were thrashed by the previously low scoring Ravens. They will need to recover quick to ensure their play off hopes are maintained. The Cardinals on the other hand, probably recorded their best win of the season by beating the Redskins. and despite their poor season are not completely out of the play off picture. They are 1-4 on the road though, beating only the 49ers. The Dolphins are 5/6 at home. Despite their overall records, the Dolphins are ranked 25th in both offence and defence while the Cardinals are ranked top for defence and 9th offensively. The Cardinals could take confidence from last week's win and mount a late charge for a play off berth. They still are a long way from convincing me but they might just surprise here, last week's heavy defeat highlights that perhaps the Dolphins still have frailties. Another game where it is tough to choose but, if the Cardinals can keep Ajayi in check, the Dolphins might struggle for points. I'm very tentatively going to side with the Cardinals, the stats imply they are the stronger team if they choose to be and up against the 30th ranked rush defence, David Johnson may have another big day for them. He will be the TD choice.

Chargers @ Panthers... The Panthers have lost 3 of their last 4 and their possible resurgence was brutalised by the Seahawks last week. The Chargers are capable on their day but too often fall short. Another tough one to call, much depends on whether the Panthers are going to let their season slip tamely into darkness or show some pride and try to bounce back. The head is saying the Panthers will win but that has been the case many times this season and they have failed to deliver. Both pass defences are lowly ranked but the Panthers 30th rating does look vulnerable to the Chargers 6th ranked pass offence. Tyrell Williams to catch a deep pass and run it in for the opening TD in a Chargers "shock" win.

Bengals @ Browns... the Browns come off their most successful weekend of their season, their bye week. The Bengals got their first win in 5 with a convincing success over the Eagles. I am not going to over-analyse this one, the Browns are not without hope of breaking their duck simply because the Bengals have often played poorly this year. They possibly also have their preferred QB, Griffin The 3rd lol possibly back but I am not sure he will make a lot of difference. The Bengals imo are the stronger team anyway. I think the Browns will score points but not enough. The Bengals, ranking at 8 overall offensively, should have too many guns for a Browns defence ranked at 31. A score similar to the Bengals 31-17 October victory over the Browns might be close to the mark. Hill to run in the first TD.

Bears @ Lions... The Lions surprisingly convincing win at the Saints gave them a 7th win in 8 and makes them strong favourites to take the NFC North division. 9 games ago they lost 17-14 at the Bears. The Bears have only won twice since, both at home, against the Vikings and then last week against the 49ers. As mentioned last week they seem to have found a greater resolve in recent games and though I have to go with the Lions, a Bears win would not be the biggest shock in the world. That said, their win last week has made some (including me! lol) look at the Lions a little more seriously, most of their other wins were usually close and not against the strongest. No convincing reason to suppose they can't continue their good run against a Bears side which is 0-6 on the road this season. They are ranked 6th for passing defence though so I'm going to nominate Riddick, a danger on the ground and in the air, for the first TD.

Texans @ Colts... Both 6-6 in a 3-way tie in the AFC South. The Texans won on home soil by 3 back in October but, they are on a 3 game losing streak and their only away victory in a 1-5 record was at the Jaguars. The Colts have won 3 of their last 4 and the loss was when they were without Luck at the helm, they crushed the Jets last week on the road. But, their strong pass game, ranked 11th, meets the Texans 5th ranked pass defence. The Texans are statistically better running offensively, ranked 6th and they meet the 20th ranked rush defence. On those stats a Texans win looks very possible but I like the Colts here, they have momentum and Luck is in fine form with the ball in hand, for me they are the team firing on the more cylinders currently. Moncrief got his customary TD last week but the main honours went to Allen who collected 3 TDs in just 4 receptions. The focal point of the attack though was TJ Hilton and I will take him to get the TD opener here, must be his turn!

Vikings @ Jaguars... The Vikings have lost 6 of their last 7 and their last 4 on the road. The Jaguars have lost their last 7 including their last 3 at home. Neither team usually suffers a heavy defeat though and I think there are worse teams in the NFL, definitely a game that could go either way. The Vikings are still fairly strong defensively (3rd overall and 4th against the pass) but continue to get little going offensively. The Jaguars are ranked 2nd for pass defence. With strong passes defences, the run might be the way to go but 32nd and 22nd rush offences do little to inspire confidence there either. Not done this before but, I will leave out of atcs and just have an idiot bet on there being no TD scorer. That outcome is of course rare but I really don't know where else to go. I think the Jaguars might sneak the win but from where...?

Jets @ 49ers... A somewhat strange stat, the 4th ranked 49ers rush offence is up against the 4th ranked Jets rush defence, not really what you expect to see from sides who have 1-11 and 3-9 records. The 49ers remain winless since the opening day, the Jets have lost 4 on the bounce and benched their regular QB in the last game, former back up Petty is likely to start this one and be given experience through the remainder of the season. That probably won't help their 27th ranked pass offence against the 14th ranked defence. The 49ers fare no better in the match-up, they are ranked 31st for pass offence. I think they are likely to be favourites to win this one but I prefer the Jets, going by the stats the game is likely to be won on the ground and while their defence might negate the 49ers offence, their own rush offence is ranked 14th and is up against the lowest ranked rush defence in the NFL. This could be a big day for Jets RB Forte, he has been poor in the last two games but this might be the one he regains form. Jets win, Forte TD.

Falcons @ Rams... The Falcons possibly unfortunate loss to the Chiefs last week has allowed the Buccs to tie with them atop the NFC South division. Fortunately for them they travel to a Rams side that have lost 7 of their last 8 and whose previously scrooge-like defence has started to open up. If it does not tighten again here, the Rams could be in for another hard game with the Falcons boasting the NFL's 3rd ranked offence, though top Falcons receiver Jones is currently a doubt. The fact that the Falcons are ranked lowest of all in pass defence may not be of huge significance against the 29th ranked pass offence. The Falcons are ranked 3rd for pass offence but it is against the run that the Rams seem to have slipped most defensively, Freeman grabbed 2 TDs last week and can also be a threat in the air so he will be the TD selection in a comfortable Falcons win.

Seahawks @ Packers... the Seahawks will be looking to cement their play off place while the Packers will be hoping to boost their lingering chances. A couple of weeks ago this would have been a nailed on Seahawks win but the Packers have got their act together a little of late and have won their last two after 4 straight losses, they can't afford to lose. The Seahawks are undoubtedly playing well currently and they thrashed the Panthers last week, they have won 4 of their last 5. Their loss to the Buccs amid the wins though suggests that they are still not always at 100% and they have won only 2/6 on the road. Their defence will need to be on song here or the potent Packers pass offence will take advantage. The concern though is the Packers defence, they are still very vulnerable imo and their are more injury rumours. The Packers are never without a chance and there is always the possibility of Rodgers outscoring anyone but I fear for their defence here. I just think the Seahawks will keep Rodgers in check sufficiently and their offence will find enough cracks in the Packers defence to amass a fair number of points. I have to go with the Seahawks and Rawls for the TD.

Cowboys @ Giants... The Giants will be looking to close the gap on the NFC East leading Cowboys who in turn will be looking to hold down their top spot in the NFC moving into the play offs. The Giants are 5-1 at home, the Cowboys 6-0 on the road. In truth I didn't hear too much of it but of what I did hear, the Giants were, at least offensively, pretty inept at the Steelers last week bringing their 6 game unbeaten run to a close. The Cowboys are unbeaten since an opening day loss on home soil to the Giants. If the Giants can get their act together and take advantage of the Cowboys lowly 29th in pass defence ranking then they are possibly capable of pulling off a win here, they certainly have some decent receivers to aim at if QB Manning is on song. But, there is little doubt in my mind that the Cowboys are the better of these two sides and I think they win with points to spare. The Giants are ranked 5th in defensive run rankings so it may be a good week to look beyond Cowboys RB Elliott and go for a little more TD value in the form of Bryant who has 4 TDs in the last 3 games.

Ravens @ Patriots... While the Patriots will be looking to maximise their position in the play offs, the Ravens are in a tied battle with the Steelers atop the AFC North division. Since their bye week the Ravens have put in a surge, winning 4 of 5, the only loss being to the Cowboys but, arguably, their wins have not been against the strongest and they were all on home turf. That said, they thrashed the Dolphins last week who were on a 6 game winning streak. They have lost their last 3 on the road. The Patriots have had their injury/suspension issues this season and have consequently perhaps not been at their best but they still boast an enviable 10-2 record. They have won their last three but the spark of hope for the Ravens is that both Patriot defeats have been at home. I have a hunch that the Ravens will surprise here and pinch a win but, to do so their defence will have to be at their best because it is hard to see them getting too many points at the other end, much is spoken about the Patriots offensively but they are also sound on defence. The stats though really point in the direction of the Patriots and I am going to let the head rule this time and go with the Patriots in a tight game. Mitchell has been targeted more in recent weeks and he may sneak under more prominent names for the TD opener.

Can't do it myself but 50s at Laddies about Jacquizz Rodgers of the Buccs scoring the first TD (don't know what else might be available, last TD etc) is a very big price. Especially as word coming out is that he is likely to be even more involved.

For doubles /patent, maybe try no TD scorer in Vikings/Jags and/or Ripkowski of the Packers is used as a bulldozer, has a TD in the last two games.

Have little confidence of success this week in truth, and a little disappointed with some of the TD prices, but then wasn't that confident last week and it went well so hopefully Lady Luck will be smiling...